m Flashcards
What is Money?
Money is a tool people use to buy goods and services. It serves three purposes:
- A medium of exchange: Makes trade easier.
- A store of value: Keeps its value over time.
- A unit of account: Measures the value of things (e.g., $1 = a candy bar).
What is a Bank?
- A bank is where people keep money safe. Banks:
- Take deposits and pay interest.
- Use deposits to give loans at higher interest rates.- Banks must keep some money as reserves
What is an Interest Rate?
The interest rate is the cost of borrowing money or the reward for saving money.
- Example: Borrow $100 at 5%, and you owe $105.
Why is it Bad to Have “Too Much” Money?
- If there’s too much money in circulation, people spend more, which:
- Increases demand for goods and services.
- Drives up prices (inflation).- Excessive inflation reduces the value of money and can destabilize the economy.
What is the Federal Reserve (Fed)
- The Fed is the central bank of the United States, responsible for:
- Managing money supply: Ensuring there’s enough money but not too much.
- Banking services: Acts as a bank for the government and commercial banks.
- Regulating banks: Prevents risky behavior by banks.
- Controlling inflation and unemployment: Balances prices and jobs.
What is the Fed’s Dual Mandate?
- The Fed’s two main goals:
1. Full Employment: Aim for most people to have jobs.
2. Low Inflation: Prices shouldn’t rise too quickly.- Why do rising interest rates cause fewer jobs?
- Higher rates increase borrowing costs for businesses and people, reducing spending and investments, which slows the economy and leads to fewer jobs.
- Why do rising interest rates cause fewer jobs?
What is the Fed Funds Rate?
- The Fed Funds Rate (FFR) is the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight.
- Why do banks need reserves?
- To meet withdrawals by customers.
- To comply with Fed requirements.
- If a bank doesn’t have enough reserves, it risks financial trouble and regulatory penalties
- Why do banks need reserves?
How Does the Fed Control the Fed Funds Rate?
- Before 2008: Open Market Operations (OMO)
- The Fed bought or sold bonds:
- Buying bonds: Gave banks more money (reserves), lowering interest rates.
- Selling bonds: Took money from banks, raising rates.
- What is a bond?
- A bond is a loan from an investor to a borrower (like the government) that pays back with interest over time.- After 2008: Interest on Reserves
- The Fed started paying interest on bank reserves held at the Fed.
- Banks now decide whether to:
- Lend to other banks at the FFR.
- Keep reserves at the Fed and earn a fixed interest rate (default-free). - This system:
- Creates a floor for the FFR, as banks won’t lend to others below the rate they can earn from the Fed.
- After 2008: Interest on Reserves
Why Does More Money with Banks Lower Interest Rates?
- Banks compete to lend money when they have excess reserves, which pushes rates down.
- Conversely, less money means banks charge higher rates to borrow funds.
What is Quantitative Easing (QE)?
- A tool used during crises to lower long-term interest rates.
- The Fed buys long-term bonds, increasing demand for them. This:
- Raises bond prices.
- Lowers bond yields (interest rates).
- The Fed buys long-term bonds, increasing demand for them. This:
Why not use QE often?
It’s typically reserved for crises like the 2008 financial crash or COVID-19, as it risks overheating the economy or creating bubbles.
What is the Fed’s Balance Sheet?
- Assets: Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
- Liabilities: Bank reserves and U.S. currency in circulation.
Why does the Fed create money?
- To buy assets or inject liquidity into the economy during crises.
- The amount created depends on economic conditions and policy goals.
What are Fed Funds Futures (FFF)?
- Contracts predicting where the FFR will be in the future.
- Used by:
- Investors to hedge risks from unexpected rate changes.
- Speculators profit from rate predictions.
- Who calculates FFF prices?
- Market participants (buyers and sellers) based on economic data and expectations.
- Used by:
What is Arbitrage?
- Definition: Profiting from price differences in markets.
- Example in the FFR Market:
- Banks borrow at a low FFR and earn a higher rate by keeping reserves at the Fed.
- The term comes from the French word “arbitrer,” meaning “to judge.”
- Example in the FFR Market:
What is Stagflation?
- High inflation and high unemployment at the same time.
- The Fed must carefully balance tools to avoid worsening either issue.
What is the FOMC?
- The Federal Open Market Committee sets monetary policy (e.g., target FFR range).
- Members include Fed governors and regional bank presidents.
- Example: Deciding whether to raise or lower rates based on inflation data.
Relation Between FFR and Interest on Reserves
- Banks choose between lending to other banks (FFR) or keeping reserves (interest on reserves).
- Non-bank participants (e.g., GSEs) also influence the market, pushing the FFR slightly below the interest on reserves.
What is a Mortgage-Backed Security (MBS)?
A bundle of home loans sold to investors, who earn returns as borrowers pay off their mortgages.
What are Options on Fed Funds?
- Like FFF, but offer more flexibility to predict rate movements, especially over longer horizons.
How Does the Fed Create Money?
- It electronically credits banks when buying assets.
- This expands its balance sheet, injecting money into the economy.
Arbitrage Pricing
Determining the value of securities by replicating their cash flows using other assets.
Portfolio Optimization
Selecting a mix of investments to maximize returns for a given level of risk.
What is Arbitrage Pricing?
What is Arbitrage?
- Arbitrage is the practice of making risk-free profits by exploiting price differences between markets.
- Example: If gold costs $2,650 in New York but $2,700 in London:
- Buy gold in New York for $2,650.
- Sell it in London for $2,700.
- Profit = $50.
- Arbitrage opportunities disappear as prices in different markets adjust.
What is the Law of One Price?
- The Law of One Price states that two portfolios with the same future cash flows must have the same price today.
- If prices differ, arbitrageurs can buy the cheaper portfolio and sell the expensive one to earn a profit.
Pricing by Replication
- To determine the price of a security, create a replicating portfolio that mimics its cash flows.
- Replicating Portfolio: A combination of other assets whose combined future cash flows are identical to the security being valued
Arbitrage Pricing with Two Goods Example
- Scenario: A portfolio of 2 apples and 1 banana costs $7. One apple costs $3.
- What is the price of one banana (PB)?
- If 2 apples cost $6 (2 × $3), then the remaining $1 ($7 - $6) must be the price of 1 banana.
- Answer: PB = $1.
- What is the price of one banana (PB)?
Methodologies for Solving Arbitrage Pricing Problems
- Method 1: Replicate each asset using portfolios and solve for their prices.
- Advantage: Identifies replicating portfolios explicitly.
- Disadvantage: Requires more calculations.- Method 2: Use fundamental asset prices (e.g., price of 1 apple and 1 banana) to calculate portfolio prices.
- Advantage: Simpler calculations.
- Disadvantage: Does not identify replicating portfolios.
- Method 2: Use fundamental asset prices (e.g., price of 1 apple and 1 banana) to calculate portfolio prices.
What is a Bond?
A bond is a loan where the borrower agrees to pay back the principal (face value) and periodic interest (coupon payments).
Zero-Coupon Bond
A bond with no periodic interest; it only pays the face value at maturity.
Coupon Bond
A bond that pays periodic interest and returns the face value at maturity.
Example: Pricing a Coupon Bond
- Scenario: A bond pays $5 in year 1 and $105 in year 2.
- Use replicating portfolios of zero-coupon bonds to determine its price:
- Cost = (0.05 × $95) + (1.05 × $90) = $99.25. - If the bond sells for $100, an arbitrage opportunity exists:
- Buy the replicating portfolio for $99.25.
- Sell the bond for $100.
- Profit = $0.75.
- Use replicating portfolios of zero-coupon bonds to determine its price:
What is a Call Option?
- A call option gives the right (but not the obligation) to buy a stock at a specific price (strike price) in the future.
- Payoff: At expiration, the value of the call option is:
- CT = max(0, ST - K), where ST is the stock price and K is the strike price.
- Payoff: At expiration, the value of the call option is:
Example: Pricing a Call Option
- Scenario:
- Current stock price (S0) = $60.
- Strike price (K) = $63.
- Stock price can rise to $72 or fall to $54.- Replicating Portfolio:
- Buy 0.5 shares of stock.
- Short-sell 0.27 bonds. - Cost of Replication:
- Price = (0.5 × $60) - (0.27 × $100) = $30 - $27 = $3. - The call option’s price is $3.
- Replicating Portfolio:
What is Portfolio Optimization?
The process of selecting investments to maximize returns for a given level of risk or minimize risk for a given level of returns.
Risk and Return
- Expected Return: Average return expected from an investment.
- Risk: Measured by variance or standard deviation of returns.
Diversification
- Diversification reduces risk by combining assets whose returns are not perfectly correlated.
- Example: Insurance policies have low returns but reduce the overall risk of a portfolio.
What are Fixed Income Securities?
- Definition: Assets that promise future cash flows (CFs) through a contract.
- Example: Bonds specify the interest and principal repayment schedule.
- Comparison to Equity:
- Equity offers no guarantees of future dividends.
- Fixed income securities are more predictable but may involve risks.
Types of Fixed Income Securities
- Treasuries: Debt issued by the U.S. government.
- Corporate Bonds: Issued by companies; higher yield but risk of default.
- Floating Rate Bonds: Interest payments vary with market rates.
- Convertible Bonds: Can be converted into company equity (stock).
- Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS): Securities backed by home loans.
- Agency Bonds: Issued by government-affiliated agencies (e.g., Fannie Mae).
- Municipal Bonds: Issued by state or local governments.
Bond Features
- Face Value (Principal): The amount paid back at maturity.
- Coupon Rate: The annual interest rate based on face value.
- Example: A bond with a face value of $1,000 and a coupon rate of 5% pays $50 annually.
- Time to Maturity: The period over which the bond pays interest before the principal is returned.
- Coupon Rate: The annual interest rate based on face value.
Risks in Fixed Income Securities: Interest Rate Risk
- If rates rise, bond prices fall.
- Example: A bond worth $1,000 at 4% may drop in value if rates rise to 5%.
Risks in Fixed Income Securities: Reinvestment Risk
- Uncertainty about the rate at which cash flows can be reinvested.
Risk in Fixed Income Securities: Default Risk
- The risk that the issuer cannot meet payment obligations.
- Example: Corporate bonds may default, unlike U.S. Treasuries.
Risk in Fixed Income Securities: Inflation Risk
- Inflation reduces the purchasing power of cash flows.
- Example: A 2% bond yield loses value if inflation rises to 3%.
Risk in Fixed Income Securities: Liquidity Risk
- Difficulty in selling the bond without losing value.
Risk in Fixed Income Securities: Volatility Risk
Price changes due to market volatility.
Pricing of Bonds
- Inverse Relationship Between Price and Yield:
- Bond prices fall as interest rates rise.
- Why? Investors demand a discount to compensate for lower relative returns.
- Term Structure of Interest Rates (Yield Curve):
- Shows the relationship between yields and maturities.
Special Bond Features
- Call Options: Allows the issuer to repay the bond early, exposing investors to reinvestment risk.
- Put Options: Lets investors sell the bond back to the issuer, reducing risk.
- Convertible Bonds: Can be exchanged for equity, often increasing in value when the stock performs well.
Repo Market
- Definition: A repurchase agreement where one party sells a security with an agreement to buy it back later at a higher price.
- Key Terms:
- Repo Rate: The implied interest rate in the agreement.
- Reverse Repo: The opposite transaction (buy now, sell later).
- Importance:
- Provides short-term funding and liquidity for financial institutions.
- Key Terms:
Securitization
Repacks cash flows from existing securities into new securities.
Example: Creating floaters/inverse floaters from fixed-rate bonds.
Leverage
- Borrowing to increase potential returns.
- Example: Using $100 in equity and $400 in borrowed funds to invest.
Present Value (PV)
Present Value is the current worth of a future amount of money or cash flow, discounted at a specific rate of interest to reflect the time value of money.
This concept relies on the principle that money today is worth more than the same amount in the future because it can be invested to earn interest.
Example: If you are promised $1,000 in 3 years and the interest rate is 5%, the present value of that $1,000 is approximately $863.84.
Future Value (FV)
Future Value represents how much an investment made today will grow to be worth at a specified date in the future, given a particular interest rate and compounding frequency.
The concept demonstrates how interest accumulation increases the investment’s value over time.
Annuity
An annuity is a financial product that provides regular, periodic payments over a specified period. These payments are typically equal and made at fixed intervals (e.g., monthly, quarterly).
Ordinary Annuity:
Payments occur at the end of each period (e.g., mortgage payments).
Annuity Due
Payments occur at the beginning of each period (e.g., rent payments).
Price-Yield Relationship
The price of a bond and its yield (or interest rate) move inversely. This relationship reflects the fundamental market principle that as the opportunity cost of holding a bond (interest rate) increases, the price of the bond must decrease to remain attractive.
Example: A bond with a fixed 5% coupon rate becomes less valuable if new bonds are offering 6% yields, so its price drops.
Pull to Par
As a bond approaches its maturity date, its price converges toward its face value (par), regardless of whether it was originally purchased at a premium or discount.
This happens because the bondholder will receive the face value at maturity, which stabilizes its price near par value as the maturity nears.
Example: A bond trading at $950 with a face value of $1,000 will gradually approach $1,000 as it nears maturity.
Price-Time Relationship
Bond prices not only fluctuate with interest rates but also change as time passes, especially if the bond is trading at a premium or discount.
Pull to Par is a component of this concept, where time’s effect on price diminishes as maturity approaches.
This relationship illustrates how bonds “self-correct” in terms of price over time.
Accrued Interest
Accrued interest represents the portion of a bond’s coupon payment that has been earned but not yet paid since the last payment date.
When a bond is traded, the buyer compensates the seller for this interest by paying the “dirty price,” which includes accrued interest.
Example: If a bond pays $60 annually in two semiannual payments of $30, and it’s been 3 months since the last payment, accrued interest is $15.