LECTURES 1-8 Flashcards
What is Epidemiology (definition)?*
THE STUDY OF THE DISTRIBUTION AND DETERMINANTS OF HEALTH RELATED STATES AND EVENTS IN POPULATIONS AND THE APPLICATION OF THIS STUDY TO THE CONTROL OF HEALTH PROBLEMS
> Health related states = diseases, BMI, blood pressure, etc.
What is an “Epidemic”?
THE OCCURRENCE IN A COMMUNITY OR REGION
OF CASES OF AN ILLNESS, SPECIFIC HEALTH-RELATED BEHAVIOUR, OR OTHER HEALTH-RELATED EVENTS
CLEARLY IN EXCESS OF NORMAL EXPECTANCY.
> > occurrence of disease in excess of normal expectancy
DESCRIPTIVE EPIDEMIOLOGY
Examining the distribution of a disease in a population, and OBSERVING the basic features of its distribution in terms of time, place, and person.
> Typical study design: community health survey
ANALYTIC EPIDEMIOLOGY
Testing a SPECIFIC HYPOTHESIS about the relationship of a disease to a putative cause by conducting an epidemiological study that relates the exposure of interest to the disease of interest.
> Typical study designs: cohort, case-control
Ratio
Relationship between two numbers
– Example: males/females
Proportion
A ratio where the numerator is included in the denominator
– Example: males/total births
Rate
A proportion with the specification of time
– Example: (deaths in 1999/population in 1999) x 1,000
What is “Endemic”?
constant presence of a disease, e.g. malaria is endemic in sub-Saharan Africa
e. Purposes of epidemiology
i. Identify causes and risk factors for disease.
ii. Determine the extent of disease in the community.
iii. Study natural history and prognosis of disease.
iv. Evaluate preventive and therapeutic measures
v. Provide foundation for public policy
- Crude death rate
= deaths from all causes in a time period
a. A proportion
b. Like Cumulative Incidence but population = entire defined population, since everyone’s at risk
- Cause-specific mortality rate
deaths from one specific cause in a time period
- Case-fatality rate
= cumulative incidence of death among those who develop an illness
a. CF = (# ppl who die from specific disease) / (# ppl with the disease during that time period)
- Point prevalence
proportion of the population affected by the disease at a given point in time
a. (# cases of disease in popul’n at a specified time)/(# ppl in popul’n at that specified time)
b. Denominator includes people living with disease
- Period prevalence
proportion of the population affected by the disease during a certain time period
a. Numerator: prevalent cases + incident cases
b. (# cases of disease in popul’n during a specific time period)/(# ppl in popul’n during that time period)
- Cumulative incidence
a. (# of new cases during a time period)/(total popul’n at risk, i.e. w/o disease)
b. Proportion – ranges from 0 to 1 or 0% to 100%
c. Measures avg risk of developing outcome over certain period of time
- Incidence rate/Incidence Density
a. (# of new cases during a time period)/(people-time at risk)
b. Person-time at risk = amount of time a population is at risk for developing a disease
c. Ranges from 0 to ∞
i. Outbreak
occurrence of disease that is greater than would be expected at a >particular timeparticular place
ii. Index case
the first recognized case in a defined outbreak or epidemic (“patient zero”)
iii. Primary case
the (true) first case in a defined outbreak or epidemic (often only determined in retrospect)
iii. Secondary case
cases who were infected by the index case (i.e., same disease/strain)
c. Attack rate
cumulative incidence of infection in a group of exposed susceptible hosts
i. Attack rate = (# persons infected)/(total # of exposed susceptible persons during outbreak)
1. Susceptible bc some ppl have immunizations and are actually not susceptible to a disease
d. Basic reproductive number (Ro, “R-not”)
the avg # of secondary cases one case generates, e.g. if one person infects 3 others, Ro = 3
i. Infection will spread in the population if Ro > 1
ii. Infection will reach an endemic phase if Ro = 1
iii. Infection will die out in the population if Ro
e. Herd immunity
Proportion of popul’n that would need to be vaccinated to prevent an outbreak
Once a certain threshold has been reached, herd immunity will result in the elimination of the disease from the population
ii. If V = herd immunity threshold, then:
V = 1 – (1/Ro)
- Sentinel events
occurrences of diseases that are harbingers of broader public health problems, e.g. suicide, wrong site surgery, fall, medication error
Sentinel Surveillance
reporting of sentinel events by select institutions or individuals