Lecture 9b: global climate change impacts: on conservation planning Flashcards
Lecture outline
- Climatic change, range changes & implications for conservation
- General implications of climate change for protected areas
- Case studies on protected areas, mitigation and adaptation
*African IBAs
*SE Asian IBAs
*At fine scale: the Albertine Rift
*Vulnerability without SDMs
*Other approaches
Climatic atlas of European breeding birds
We produced similar models for all of the breeding birds of Europe and demonstrated a consistent N-NE shift in breeding range among all species, with very few exceptions.
Models built using data from the EBCC Atlas and are simple correlations between where a species occurs now and climatic variables (SDMs from last lecture). We then project where the types of climate that a species thrives in will occur in future. So, few additional biological considerations.
Present/future overlaps - endemics
Models can ‘flag’ species that might well be more or less threatened under CC.
*For example across Europe we can highlight those species that are likely to do well under CC and are therefore of lower future conservation concern (Blue Tit, Blckcap, Cirl Bunting)
*And others that are likely to be of much greater concern (Audoin’s gull, Mediterranean Shearwater, Cory Shearwater) as they have a limited range overlap with that which will be hospitable in future
*Adds an interesting ethical conundrum regarding whether we help species that are vulnerable now but will be ‘helped’ by climate change or vice versa
*Similarly, we can flag species that are likely to do well if they can shift their ranges to track climate change, i.e. their area of suitable climate increases (Italian Sparrow, Eleanora’s Falcon, Chukar Partridge)
*And those that could potentially do well if they can shift range but if not could decline hugely as there is almost no overlap between where the occur now and where their suitable climate is projected to occur in the future (Scottish Crossbill, Spanish Imperial Eagle).
Not all projections are for poleward range shifts – temperature and rainfall are also key factors
example: Australian study VanDerWal et al 2013 Nature climate change study
temperature:
In Australia the most rapid rate of temperature change in the east vs most extreme changes in precipitation are in west.
There, for we might expect spp whose distribution is most limited by temp vs precip to respond in very different ways to future climate change.
In many parts of the world precipitation is as important a driver, or more important a driver than is temperature. See in notes: Map of Australia showing predicted change in future rainfall patterns and rainfall velocities
This work in Australia shows the potential of species to respond to changing climate by shifting their range in numerous directions but certainly not consistently poleward.
^ Depending on whether species respond to temperature or rainfall
also see world maps by Voskal et al unpublished in notes
Sometimes it’s easier to head uphill
See Loarie et al (2009) Nature
World map figure showing mountain ranges as blue areas – here speed of climate velocity is less so finding suitable habitat nearby under climate change is likely to be more achievable
Habitat corridors for dispersal are important especially in the context of range shift impacts on protected areas (PAs)
climate change and protected areas
see figure in notes
^ range shifts can increase habitat within conserved areas for some species and leave others no longer in protected areas
^ The impacts of climate change on PA management:
Here we consider two spp moving through a landscape in response to CC and the implications this has for the management of the three reserves.
Africa’s Important Bird Area (IBA) network
*We use the IBAs network as an ‘idealised’ network to study how avian biodiversity protection could be affected by CC across an entire, and see how well it could perform in the future.
*IBAs are a series of areas that BirdLife International consider should be protected in order to safeguard the protection of spp. They are selected on the basis of (see above). The next slide explains a few of the terms.
(IBA system has since been dismissed and now we just have KBA key biodiversity areas)
1,230 IBAs across Africa and associated islands
* 881 in sub-Saharan Africa (below 200 North) excluding islands
Selected based on the presence Of:
1) species of global
conservation concern
2) assemblages of restricted-range species
3) assemblages Of biome-restricted species
4) concentrations Of congregatory species
Defining IBAs
Bird species categories:
A1. Globally threatened species
The site holds a population of a species categorized by the IUCN Red List as Critically Endangered, Endangered or Vulnerable.
A2. Restricted-range species
The site forms one of a set selected to ensure that, as far as possible, all restricted-range species of an EBA are present in significant numbers in at least one site and, preferably, more.
A3. Biome-restricted species
The site forms one of a set selected to ensure, as far as possible, adequate representation of all species restricted to a given biome, both across the biome as a whole and, as necessary, for all of its species in each range state.
A4. Congregations
This applies to ‘waterbird’ species and is modelled on criterion 6 of the Ramsar Convention for identifying wetlands of international importance.
Selection criteria for IBAs: African has a whole range of different biomes ranging from tropical forests to deserts and Mediterranean habitats, which results in a high diversity and endemism.
A restricted-range bird species =
a land bird which is judged to have a breeding range of less than 50,000 km^2 since 1800’s
Some birds which have small ranges today were historically widespread, and are therefore treated as restricted- range species. Extinct birds which qualify
on range size are included.
IBAs in Africa: Diversity of bird species and biomes
As a result of relatively stable climates and the wide diversity of climates and biomes Africa has an order of magnitude more birds of conservation concern than Europe, and probably two orders of magnitude more endemic birds. However, many key areas for birds remain unprotected.
- There are 24 birds Of global conservation concern in Europe —cf. 343 in Africa
- 15 biomes recognised to which 947 birds are globally confined
- 44% Of sites have no protection by national law
- 89% are not recognised by international conventions
Sub-Saharan Africa Turnover (Avian)
see notes for figure of Projected priority species turnover within IBAs
^ data are for 803 individual IBAs for three future climate scenarios (GCMs) and for three future time periods
The projected future turnover of IBAs: Here we use models as described earlier but instead of projecting onto grids across a region, we apply them to climates of individual IBAs, and simulate numbers of colonists, emigrants and stationary species. Turnover is a single measure that summarised these changes. Turnover on average is substantial, and is projected to increase over time
“We define species turnover for each IBA as the sum of colonizers (species for which the IBA becomes climatically suitable in the future) and emigrants (species for which the climate becomes unsuitable) divided by the total species number for which the IBA is climatically suitable in the present plus the total species number for which the IBA is climatically suitable in the future.”
Hole et al. 2009, Ecology Letters
In simplified terms turnover is calculated as:
colonizers in future
+ # emigrants in future
divided by:
total species for which IBA is suitable now
+
# total species for which IBA is suitable in future
simplified:
colonisers+emigrants / suitable now+future
Persistence of individual priority species by 2085 within IBAs for which they trigger designation:
Retain suitable climate space
somewhere within the network
62-93 species 8-11%)
Lose all suitable climate space
from within the network
7-8 species (0.9-1%)
Retain suitable climate space in
greater than or equal to 1 IBA in which they currently trigger designation
714-746 species (88-92%)
^ results indicate remarkably high persistence of priority species (i.e. network robustness) so current IBAs are doing a good job in preserving future bird populations under climate change
*Considering all IBAs across Africa, we find that under future climate change, the network as a whole will prove capable of protecting almost all species, providing they can move among IBAs.
*An important finding – as it implies that the current networks will still have considerable value in the future.
Summary of projected impacts of climate change:
Substantial community disruption is projected for the late 21st century
BUT – protected areas and protected area networks CAN/MUST play a key role in mitigating against climate change
Adaptive management strategies urgently required
Introduction to adaptive management under climate change
Broad range of tools proposed:
1) Protect key ecosystem features
2) Reduce anthropogenic pressures
3) Restoration
4) Translocation
Key question:
is our management aim to enhance system persistence or to promote system transformation?
Note: Coarse-scale analyses can only develop scenario-based adaptive management prescriptions
Adaptive management:
Method for categorizing IBAs
Based on the median, upper and lower quartiles of projected numbers of emigrants and immigrants:
(See figure in notes)
Hole et al 2011 Conservation Biology
From the previous example of CC impacts on African IBAs:
If we plot each IBA on a graph with axes of the numbers of colonisers an demigrants, we can start to define stable sites versus sites with high , and different types of, turnover and plan management strategies accordingly.
Case study one: Climate change across Sub-Saharan Africa
Proportion of priority species emigrating
from and colonizing 803 IBAs across Africa
(See figure in notes)
Hole et al 2011 Conservation Biology
categories:
High persistence
few species colonising or emigrating not much expected change
Increased Specialization
few colonisers and many leaving – remaining community increasingly specialised
High Turnover
many leaving and many arriving
Median Stability
not many leaving but sustaining
Keystone sites
have a disproportionately large impact on biodiversity relative to their size.
These categories can be mapped across Africa to examine where these different types of site occur in Africa – to suggest management of the wider landscape, and to produce regional management plans.
Regions of high turnover and stability and management consequences: See Hole et al 2011 figure for all of Africa
^ Congo regions have high stability – can continue to manage ‘as is’. Sites of high turnover run from Botswana to East Africa – such sites might benefit from enhanced connectivity.
^ high turnover (red) areas will need connectivity to facilitate species movement
^ in future the regions around the guinea-congo forests are projected to have large numbers of spp moving through them.
Case study 2: IBAs in South East Asia
Bagchi et al 2013 Global Change Biology
see figure 1 map of 60,738 point locality records of 4000 bird species
^ a similar type of case study to no. 1, this time in the Lower Mekong and Himlaya of SE Asia.
figure 2
^Projected impact of climate change on the biome-restricted species of the Indochinese tropical moist forests:
These maps show the combined distributions of the 39 bird species that are confined to the Indochinese tropical moist forests biome and the projected impacts of climate change:
^expected range shift of these species – getting smaller and shifting north
^This approach allows us to ‘stack’
predictions of range changes for many species typical of a particular habitat (here Asian tropical forest birds) to show how entire communities might shift, and hence plan accordingly.
Unlike the consistent patterning of species turnover (degrees of colonisation and extinction ) that we saw earlier in African IBAs – the situation we project for SE Asian IBAs is much more diverse
Adjoining areas having very different patterns of turnover, making generalising management strategies across these regions more difficult.
see fig. 4 the potential loss of coastal IBAs due to projected future sea-level rise:
We must also consider other climate change impacts, such as sea level rise.
should we protect areas predicted to be covered by sea in near future?
Case study 3: Fine Scale Impacts IBAs of the Albertine Rift (AR)
33 species are recognized as
Albertine Rift EBA species
Together, these species flag-up
22 IBAs (a further 9 IBAs are also
located within the region)
This study focuses on one area to look at simulated changes in a regional network, using fine scale projections of changing suitability for the species of conservation concern.
According to projected distribution maps (see notes) bird species are expected to move northwards and uphill
- studied 14 AR endemic species and found evidence that species would likely shift to higher elevations and retreat northwards up the AR valley.
*White to black signifies increasing elevation.
*Green to red signifies increased simulated diversity of endemic birds.
Fine scale modelling in the AR:
fine-scale distribution data used to model the potential fine-scale distribution (1km) of spp across the region in future.
see figure in notes
This study identified 2 areas of high biodiversity predicted to sustain until 2085 and these areas are now protected (circled in purple)
*We can also highlight areas of high biodiversity, now and in the future, which are currently unprotected and recommend then for formal protection.
*Note the two areas highlighted in Democratic Republic of Congo on the third image. These are examples of a few areas that have high diversity throughout the period but are currently unprotected.
*Since this modeling work, the western site in DRC has been gazetted and found to be of high biodiversity value, and has since been proposed as an IBA.
- (models are for HADGEM A1b)
Case 4: Vulnerability assessment
As an alternative to SDM models, Foden et al. (2013) propose assessing species
according to their exposure, adaptive capacity and sensitivity to climate change.
Could be combined With SDMS to produce refined risks for many species that also
consider species traits.
(Foden etal. 2013. PLOS one)
see venn diagram in notes showing how 3 factors: exposure, sensitivity, low adaptive capacity interact to determine 4 vulnerability categories:
- Highly Vulnerable
At greatest risk
· Specific research needed
. Interventions generally needed - Potential Adapters
May be at risk
. Monitor and support adaptive responses - Potential Persisters
May not be at risk
. Monitor population trends - High Latent Risk
Not currently at risk
· Monitor environment
Similar to a risk assessment – likeliness of occurrence and how to mitigate
Area 1 in the centre the most vulnerable due to interacting factors
An alternative approach to evaluate climate change vulnerable species is to consider their sensitivity and adaptive capacity to changes in climate, in addition to their exposure to changing climate.
see in notes how this can be used to map vulnerability and how it varies for diff taxa
Case 4: example paper
Ma et al 2023 Nature Communications;
Shape, size and colour of bird can be used to estimate their heat and water exchange
(see figure in notes)
The map shows the estimated effects of this in a model example of a bird species
TEWL = water loss in an average day of the typically hottest month of the year
ADR = maximum water loss per gram of mass in three continuous hours in an average day of the typically hottest month of the year
Conservation options available for us to use to maintain species as climate change.
1) Potential mitigation measures
2) Variable width buffer zones around PAs
3) Stepping stones
4) Species translocation
Potential mitigation measures
Identify and protect key Stable Sites (Climate ‘refugia’) — Sites that retain the complement of species they currently support and/or are able to
support other species that disperse into them as ranges shift
* e.g. areas of highly variable topography/mountainous regions such
as the Cameroon Highlands
* e.g. warm desert areas with high diversity and low predicted physiological impacts
see Ma et al 2023
^Many identified refugia are not yet strictly protected
*We can use modelling to identify regions projected stable – climate refugia – so sites likely retain spp – which may also support additional species.
*For example, models of suitable climate for Bannerman’s Turaco, an endemic birds of the Cameroon Highlands – modelled present left
*Projected 2080 right show its range is projected to contract into higher elevations – red circle likely to be key stable site and not just for this spp – also for several others in region.
*We can use this information to think about targeting resources now to safeguard future
Usually areas with mountain regions
Variable Width buffer Zones around PAS
as species ranges begin to shift, species could move into buffer areas, which may then be ‘upgraded’ to full protection
- A potentially useful strategy in the short to medium term, but unlikely to be practicable for many species/PAs in the long-term due to magnitude of potential range shifts
- Could be used in conjunction
with habitat stepping stones
*Buffer zones – reduce edge effects/human disturbance to reserve
*May prove useful – as spp ranges shift – move into buffer areas – ‘upgraded’
*Short and medium term solution – unlikely to be practicable in long term for many species as the magnitude range shifts are too large. For example, here we project Rudd’s Apalis shift between now and 2080 to track change as being > 750km – beyond scale buffers
Stepping stones
3) Stepping — unconnected areas of preserved or restored habitat allowing movement between PAS through unsuitable habitat or over distances too large for ‘no-stop’ dispersal
Stepping stones are simply unconnected areas of habitat that allow movement from one protected area to another
*Example – Angolan Escarpment = GARP model for Prionops gabela – EN
*Modeled present on left – projected 2080 right –IBAs overlaid light green
*Envelope projected contract dramatically – shift south and east
*Draw attention to red box – enlarged on far right – example of potential stepping stone habitat – dark red pixels = conceivably allow spp to move between two IBAs – tracking climate envelope as moves south-east – assuming suitable habitat in pixels and IBA on right becomes climatically suitable
Species translocation
the transport and release of wild or captive bred individuals to sites deemed suitable for a species ecological requirements, where new populations can be established
Creation of non-analogue communities?
Sheer scale of translocation programme required may be prohibitive
translocate spp where unable move between present locality and site – geographical barriers or unsuitable habitat in between, e.g. Marbled White example
*Release of wild/captive-bred has been used for many years to support/create new populations
*The Great Bustard was reintroduced to UK, where hasn’t bred for 200 years, to re-establish a new population. It bred for the first time last year. – to date spp have generally re-introduced to areas where they have gone locally extinct
*As cc mitigation measure – maybe introducing spp to entirely new regions – but potential problems of forming entirely new communities – but this could have severe impacts as we cannot be sure what could happen.
*Sheer number of spp – distances and logistics involved - prohibitive
Example of successful species translocation:
Marbled White butterfly
Willis et al 2009 Conservation Letters
Assisted colonisation (AC) — translocating species threatened by climate change
Marbled White has poor dispersal ability
approx. 1km/ year expansion rate. Willis et al. introduced a population to a suitable area beyond the species dispersal capability
This AC population has persisted
The population expanded at a rate similar
to naturally colonised sites
An example for a successful assisted colonisation project is the introduction of the Marbled White at the Wingate quarry in the UK.
This species has been selected as a suitable candidate to test assisted colonisation because it has a relatively poor dispersal ability, it is currently already dispersing northwards and areas with its preferred habitat as well as climatic suitability are located to the north of their distribution but beyond its dispersal range.
Map description (see in notes):
The introduced population was monitored for the following 6 years.
Over this time the population continuously grew at the same rate as other populations in areas of natural range extension.
The distribution area of the introduced population grew from 7.2 to 17.8 ha. Whereas the expansion rate was less than 1km per year.
After about 9 years the populations has persisted and continues to expand, suggesting that these climate models are providing useable information about climate suitability for individual species
similar pop. Growth in translocated area suggesting successful establishment
*In order to test species-climate models, one other test is to introduce spp. into areas simulated as suitable but where they do not occur.
*We did this for Marbled White and found that a population close to Durham prospered, increasing at the same rate as newly colonised sites within the core range.
A retrospective analysis of Marbled white AC
Menendez et al. (2006)
176 UK instances of butterfly species being released into novel areas
(both planned conservation introductions and unofficial releases)
This study used climate envelope models to simulate climate suitability in successful (present for years) and unsuccessful sites (present-CIO years)
Climate suitability at successful release sites was almost double that at sites of failed releases (0.340 ± 0.043 versus ( 0.183 ± 0.018)
conclusion: Climate suitability is essential for translocation success
*A final ‘natural’ experimental test of SDM models resulted from evaluating the success or failure of decades of (often illegal) introductions of butterfly species into areas beyond their UK range.
*We found that SDMs simulated sites of established populations following an introduction to have much higher climate suitability compared to failed introductions.
*Would be interesting to repeat this with microclimate data
Assessing mechanisms for impacts of climate change: caterpillar development study
- Obtained marbled white larvae (caterpillars)
- Divided into 20 populations of 10
- Placed one Of each group in one Of 4 different temperature treatments based on average monthly temperature (2000-2008) at Durham (the range edge):
Temp variations used in degrees C:
+4, +2, +0, -2
^ 0 = Wingate site, +2 and +4 resemble sites further south. Every week growth measurements recorded and impacts temperature effects on development assessed
Research team took weekly measurements of each group:
* Mass
* Instar
* Head capsule size
* Colour
* Mortality
* Sex
See graph of results in notes:
*Even after one month it is clear that the larvae grown in an environment mimicking the range margin are behaving similar to those grown in climates of the core range.
*Growing larvae at temperatures lower than this results in much reduced larval development rates – probably insufficient to reach adulthood by summer.
*From this series of experiments we would conclude that Marbled White should be able to survive at the Wingate sites, which we modelled as climatically suitable using species-climate models,
*They may struggle to disperse from the site – which is exactly what has happened.
*Such experiments aid our understand of what limits species at their range margins.
Other factors of conserving species under climate change
*Finally, it is also important to disseminate future projections to the wider non-scientific community, in order to raise awareness of potential future problems and solutions.
*Biodiversity and climate change are interlinked – recognised more explicitly in 2022 IPCC report
*Featuring more and more in government discussions
*Recognised as an economic risk
*Also discussed more frankly in the media – social media and popular media like Attenborough documentaries
see notes for papers
Lawton et al. (20101 Making Space
for Nature: a review of England’s
wildlife sites and Report to Defra.
“We can summarise the essence Of what needs to be done in four words: more, bigger, better and joined”
Additional factors of conserving species under climate change
*This ties into other conservation movements that are now gaining traction – such as rewilding
*This view of the British countryside under rewilding incorporates many concepts that are relevant to climate change mitigation
*Restoration of blanket bog (peat)
*Restoring soil and rewiggling rivers to hold water back
*Improving size and quality of nature reserves
*Connecting natural habitat across landscapes
*Improving permeability of the matrix through sustainable farming approaches
Summary
*There are varied approaches to use biological research to project impacts of climate change on species
*These can be used to guide both the management of protected areas and distribution of new protected areas
*In future more focus will need to be on facilitating species to move amongst protected areas.
*Here potential adaptation strategies are discussed.
*We end by highlighting the importance of raising awareness of the potential issues and solutions.
*Only by highlighting the problems at all levels can we hope to fund and implement changes to deal with the problems of climate change on biodiversity.
