Lecture 5/6

Question 1

Demand forecasting

Answer 1

Different types of forecasting models
- Static models
- Dynamic models

Question 2

Why forecasting demand

Answer 2

Push vs. Pull
- Push: What will be the level of demand
- Pull: What level of capacity is needed

Uncertain future
The future is dependent on the past
or the future by other variables

Question 3

Types of forecasting models

Answer 3

Qualitive models
Time series models
Causal models
Simulation models

Question 4

Demand forecasting steps

Answer 4

1. Understanding the objective of forecasting (push-pull, supply chain activities)
2. Integrate demand planning and forecasting throughout the supply chain
3. Identify major factors in influencing demand
4. Forecast at the appropriate level of aggregation
5. Establish error measures for forecast

Question 5

Static time-series forecasting

Answer 5

Static forecasting means the estimate of level, trend, and seasonality within the systemativ component do not cary as demand is observed

Question 6

Characteristics and use of a simulation model

Answer 6

• It describes how a system operates
• It incorporates how a system evolves over time
• It includes uncertainty
• It specifies relationship between elements in the model

Question 7

Why adpative forecasting technique

Answer 7

Adaptive forecasting = The estimates of level, trend, and seasonality are updated after each demand observation

Estimates incorporate all new data that are observed