Lecture 4 - Risk Perception in Environmental Psychology

Question 1

What is a risk?

Answer 1

A Hazard is not the same as a risk
- Hazard = anything that could lead to harm
- Risk = the probability of a hazard happening, and harm associated with the event

Question 2

Formal definition of Risk

Answer 2

Risk = probability X severity
- Used for risk assessments

Question 3

How do we really judge whats risky on an everyday basis?

Answer 3

This is the concern of envirionmental psychology
- We dont go about life calculating the risks as we go. We intuitively find ways to subjectively judge risk as we go through life.

Whats the real risk?
- Anything that has the potential to cause harm and we make judgemnets about that

Question 4

Risk assessment Vs Risk Perception

Answer 4

Risk Assessment = liklihood X severity (more objective and formalised)
Risk Perception = The subjective judgement people make about the characteristics and severity of risks (more subjective, considering thoughts and feelings)

Question 5

Slovic (2000) Experts, non-experts and risk

Answer 5

Looked at a range of 30 risk issues and asked both experts and non-experts to rank them (1-30)
* Experts vs non-experts came up with quite different judgemnets.
* Non-experts put nuclear power as 1, experts put nuclear power as 20
* Non-experts put swimming at 30, experts put swimming as 10.

Actual risk was measured by number of deaths recorded in the risk issues displayed.
* There was some correspondence between non-expert judgemnet and risk - as the measurable harm from a risk, in terms of death, increases, then peoples perceieved risk does go up.
* HOWEVER, non-experts had a much weaker relationship compared to experts

Question 6

People are not percieving risks as high risk compared to the experts…

Answer 6

• We therefore want to improve communication and direct educational efforts to stop the biases and misperceptions
• This matters because perceptions (whether accurate or not) tend to influence our behaviour

Question 7

Things to consider when looking at risk perception and individualised psychological perspectives

Answer 7

1. Representativeness Heuristic
2. Availability Heuristc
3. Framing Effect
4. Affect Heuristic
5. The Psychometric paradigm
6. Individual differences

Question 8

What is the representativeness Heuristic

Answer 8

• Judging probability on the basis of the similarity of person/event A to group/class B

Question 9

Tversky and Kahnemann (1974) - The Representativeness Heuristic

Answer 9

People were given two texts about an individual. They are then asked the probability that the individual has a certain occupation. Ps are led to believe a certain answer based on stereotypes. However, statistically the chnaces of the person having that occupation is slim.
* This is an example of the representativeness hueristic. Whilst useful, it can lead to biases in risk perception because we mix up probability with representativeness (ignoring baseline information).

Question 10

Gerend et al., (2004)- representativness heuristic

Answer 10

Showed the representativeness heuristic in health risk perception. All Ps viewed themselves as the ‘typical woman’ who gets health problems
* Gave Ps a statement

They measured a range of other predictrs

Findings:
* they found that factual data did account for some proportion of variance in percieved suseptibility to health problem BUT if you feel you are the sort of person to get a health problem, your risk perception of this increases

Question 11

What is the Availability Heuristic?

Answer 11

Estimating the frequency or probability based on how easy it is to think of something. This is when our thinking and judgement is infleunced by how salient/how easy it is to bring to mind a particular idea.

Question 12

Demski et al., (2016) and the availability heuristic

Answer 12

Looking at the application of the availability heuristic in terms of peoples direct experience of weather events related to CC
- Surveyed people directly effected by flooding
- Surveyed a nationally representative study (no direct experience)

Results:
- When they asked people about the three most prominent issues facing the country, those directly effected by a flood explained that climate chnage was a prominent issue.

availability heuristic is at play - if you have been effected, raises the prominence of the effect

Question 13

What is the Framing effect?

Answer 13

A decision outcome can be influenced by the background context of teh choice and the way in which the question is worded and framed

Question 14

Tversky & Kahnemann (1981) and the framing effect

Answer 14

Disease framing experiment:
Ps were given two frames of saving people from a disease
- 200 people will be saved
- 1/3 of 600 people may be saved

People picked the more certain frame, eventhough both frames meant the same outcome. This shows that Ps are risk aversive and avoid risky outcomes.

Question 15

Spence & Pidgeon (2006) - Framing effectin the context of CC

Answer 15

• They looked at how the same information about CC can lead to difference perceptions depending on whether its framed in a gain/loss frame or a near/distant fram

“by mitigating CC we can prevent further increases in winter floods” - Gain frame

“without mitigating CC, we will see further increases in winter floods” - Loss frame

Results
- gain frame increased peoples percieved severity of CC. They also had stringer attitudes towards CC mitigation. With a distant frame, the effect was opposite.

Question 16

Graham & Abrahamse (2017) - framing effect

Answer 16

How to frame information around meat consumption and whether this effects peoples risk perception around CC
- They found that giving people information of the meat impacts on CC raised Ps level of concern about GHG emissions, compared to a control
- They measured Ps pre-existing values through the NEP and self-trancendence scores. They found a main effect of values: as peoples environmental values increase, the more concerned they are about the meat impacts on CC
- They also found that matched messaged (self-transcendent Vs self-enhancement messages) was more effective

Question 17

What is the Affect Heuristic?

Answer 17

Using underlying feelings to form perceptions of risk and benefit

Question 18

Slovic et al., (2004) and the Affect Heuristic

Answer 18

If a persons feelings towards an activity are favourable, they are moved towards judging the risk as low and the benefits as high

e.g. if you liek skiing, youre probably motivated to judge the risk towards skiing as low eventhough it is quite a risky activity

Question 19

Leiserowitz et al., (2006) and the Affect Heuristic

Answer 19

Asked Ps how +ve or -ve they felt towrds CC. They also ased for image association “what is the first image that comes to mind when you think of CC”. They got Ps to rate the affect images.

Findings: Affect, in terms of holitic negative affect, was the strongest predictor of risk perception, negative image affect was the second most salient

Question 20

What is the Psychometric paradigm

Answer 20

This is ‘Cognitive maps’ of risk attitudes and perceptions

Question 21

Slovic et al., (1980) and the psychometric paradigm

Answer 21

Studied which hazards are seen as the most risky and the reasons underlying this. They had 90 hazards and 18 characteristics.

Findings: they found 2 dimensions to explain how people percieve risk
- DREAD - perceived lack of control, catastrophic potential
- UNKNOWN - unobservable, unfamiliar

This led to a range of research to try and map risks and peoples perceptions of risks on these two dimensions
- nuclear power rated as high on dread and unknwon
- bikes, swimming and trampolines rated as more familiar and less association wth dread.

Question 22

Fox-Glassman and Weber (2016) and the psychometric approach

Answer 22

40 years later, they argue that they are still finding similar risk space on these dimensions. ‘Dread’ and ‘Unknown’factors still predict percieved level of acceptability of risk

Question 23

Limitations of the psychometric paradigm

Answer 23

• conclusions are dependent on hazards studied and questions asked
• Atheoretical: what does dread and unknown mean?
• Not always a string predictr, accounts for ~20% of variance (Sjoberg, 2000)
• may be more than two factors or different types of factors

Question 24

Individual Differences in Risk Perception

Answer 24

Hueristics, Biases and the Psychometric paradigm tend to assume that people are all the same, with the same biases. HOWEVER people differ based on their:
- Knowledge/expertise
- Gender/ethnicity
- Experince

Question 25

Things to consider when looking at Risk perception and socio-cultural perspectives

Answer 25

Risks are culturally determined. This will be explained by…
1. Cultural theory
2. Cultural cognition

Question 26

What is Cultural theory? (description)

Answer 26

Douglas (1992)
- Risk perception is not ‘private’ - people are primed with culturally learned assumtpions
- There is a cultural infleunce in judgements about what is risky and which risks are acceptable
- Because individuals are embedded in social structures, it is these that determine their values, attitudes and worldviews.

Question 27

What is cultural theory (explanation of the dimensions)

Answer 27

Cultural theory argues that people can be divided along two dimensions:
1. Group dimension - do people view themselves as part of a interconnected society OR see people as a collection of individuals, all of whom have their own autonomy
2. Grid dimension - Rules and order. The extent to which people see society as rule bound/constrained by expectations

Where someone is situated on these dimensions infleunces their perceptions of risk

Question 28

Fatalist

Answer 28

High grid, low group
- views nature as unmanageable, there is neither rhyme or reason

flat terrain and ball

Question 29

Hierarchist

Answer 29

High grid, High group
- recognises that nature has limits beyond which it can be pushed BUT nature is controllable where certain risks are acceptable.
- Once we push nature too far, the system will collapse
- Implies expert oversight and satuatory regulation being the most appropriate for envrionmental protection.

wiggly terrain and ball in the dip ~O~

Question 30

Individualist

Answer 30

Low grid, Low group
- Nature is robust and benign/resiliant
- it will recover from external shocks
- it is wonderfully forgiving
- This view legitimises individualist socual relations: people are free to act as they wish with few restrictions

U bent terrain with the ball in the middle

Question 31

Egalitarian

Answer 31

High group, low grid
- nature is fragile
- egalitarians are very concerned about nature and see people as responsible for causing and addressing CC
- implies solutions grounded in social justice and based on radical changes in behaviour and society

Inverted U shaped terrain with the ball sat on top

Question 32

Why do people fall differently on the grid/group dimension in cultural theory?

Answer 32

The reason people hold these views is because it justifies their chosen world view

Question 33

Capstick and Pidgeon (2014) - cultural theory

Answer 33

They tried to operationalise and measure ideas in cultural theory (egalitarianism and individualism). They found that these dimensions infleunce CC scepticism and risk perception around environmental issues

egalitarianism – (-.22) –> CC skepticism –(.70) –> interpretation of weather

Individualism –(.42) –> CC skepticism –(.70) –> interpretation of weather

Question 34

West et al., (2010) and cultural theory

Answer 34

Applied cultural theory to peoples perceptions of renewable energy
- researchers wanted to understand how Ps underlying worldview about society can inform opinions and behaviours on renewable energy. They gathered qualitative data from a focus group

Findings
- If Ps had an individualistic perception on renewable energy, they thought that CC is government propoganda and a way to make revenue through taxes
- If Ps had an hierarchist perception on renewable energy, they argued that the government needs more sanctions and international agreement
- If Ps had an egalitarian perception on renewable energy, they argued that CC poses a huge threat to society. There is a moral obligation to think of others and future generations

Question 35

Limitations to cultural theory

Answer 35

• Cultural theory and the grid/group model is ridgid. Do people move between the positions?
• Do these dimensions remain static or vary overtime and by context?
• Hard to operationalise and measure
• Criticised for weak correlations to risk perceptions (6-7% average variance explained accross 22 risks)

Question 36

Cultural Cogntion

Answer 36

Kahan (2010)
- This theory integrates cultural theoyr, psychometric paradigm and attempts to account for individual differences
- Two subscales to measure cultural cognition:
1. hierarchy-egalitarianism (‘Hierarchy’) = attitudes to authority based on stratified social roles with fixed characteristics (gender/age)
2. Individualism-communitarianism (‘individualism’) = attitudes to responsibility for wellbeing and to individual freedoms

Question 37

Kahans Cultural cognition considering the cultural cognition thesis and science comprehension thesis

Answer 37

When measuring these dimensions, Kahan has tried to look at alternative explantions for climate concerns. Whether its based on peoples cultural positions (cultural cognition thesis) OR whether its based on their science comprehension (science comprehension thesis)
- By assessing Hierarchal and individualist Ps views towards perceieved risk about environmental problems, found that the effect of scientific information POLARISED their beliefs

1. Hierarchist + Scientific info = more certain of CC concerns
2. Individualist + Scientific info = less certain of CC concerns

Question 38

Weng & Yang (2020) Risk perception and Covid-19

Answer 38

Study on US support for covid measures:
- how affect and emotion influenced risk perception and how that infleunced support for governemnt measurements to tackle COVID.
- Peoples +ve or -ve valence towards covid was an infleunce on risk perception, which infleunced policy support

Question 39

Siegrist et al., (2021) Risk perception and COVID

Answer 39

found that more general health risk perception was a string predictor of acceptance or rejection of measures to control covid.

Question 40

Joslyn et al., (2021) Risk Perception and covid

Answer 40

Used messages and information to overcome biases. This study is to highlight that there is work being condcted to look at how info can be used to persuade people to wear masks or behave in health protective ways. They did this in relaion to age, ideology, the way messages was recieved and face mask behaviour

Question 41

Facemasks and the white male effect

Answer 41

How different levels of control and status in society infleunce risk perception whether its to do with cultural cognition/cultural theory

Author applies the ideas discuessed around teh psychology of risk perception to answer the question “why, in the early stages of COVID, did Trump make a point in not wearing a face mask?” - taps into notions of individualist risk perception and wider society ideology