Lecture 4 Flashcards
Is this argument valid?
Fiona lives in Inverness. Therefore Fiona owns at least one wool garment.
No. The premise is true but the conclusion is false.
If we add that everyone who lives in Inverness owns at least one woolen garment does this help the Fiona argument.
It makes it valid. It just isn’t sound anymore. It is a false premise.
How can we bring inductive force to the argument?
By saying the majority of people who live in Inverness own at least one woolen garment.
This isn’t valid. But it has inductive force.
It’s probable Fiona has a woolen garment.
What is an inductively forceful argument?
One where the premises (if they’re true) mean it’s more likely the conclusion is true.
What do we mean by probability?
A way of calculating likelihood. We can’t be certain these things will happen. But we can say there is a greater chance of them happening than not.
How can we express probability.
Through number between 0 and 1.
0 certainly not. 1 certainly. 0.5 as likely either way.
We can look at past data for frequency
We can use proportions.
What is rational expectation?
A degree to which you’re entitled to believe something given your evidence.
Inductive force comes in degrees. The inductive force of an argument is the degree to which the premises make it rational to think the conclusion is true.
