leading herd astray --> salganik & watts, 2008 Flashcards
shows that in the short run
perception of popularity works as a self-fulfilling prophecy
shows that in the longer run
false perceptions did not have much of an effect
set up experiment 1
volunteers via the web
incentive - downloading free songs
can only download after listening and rating
one group only saw songs
one group saw popularity ratings from other members
set up experiment 2
popularity rating determined
inverted in group that could see popularity rating
popularity scores honestly updated with real downloads
initial results of false popularity scores
the high ones did much better
later result of inverted popularity ratings
reverted to the state of the unchanged world
when are these effects the strongest
songs with greatest appeal
‘best’’ songs suffered bu initial inversion - fully restored to their expected ranking
inverted world led to
much lower no. of downloads overall
inverted world led to much lower no. of downloads overall –> implication
that market with lots of false information will do much less overall
prisoners dilemme
if one lies they will benefit
if everyone lies all lose relative to the situation
complete inversion limitation
radical misinformation
on-off
not subtle
single source limitation
there are multiple sources in real situations
only looks at decisions of final customer limitation
does not include middlemen
gatekeepers
selectors in real situation
music limitation
mass market type of good
herds
minimize downside risk
self-fulfilling prophecy
false definiton of situation evoking new behaviour which makes the originally false conception come true
