(L8) (J. Tinbergen, On a Method of Statistical Business-Cycle Research)

Question 1

What is the focus of Keynes’ commentary on Tinbergen’s method?

Answer 1

Critique of the efficacy and appropriateness of Tinbergen’s statistical methods in understanding complex economic phenomena.

Question 2

What is a major concern raised about trend analysis in Tinbergen’s method?

Answer 2

The potential inadequacy of trend series to explain cyclic fluctuations.

Question 3

How does Keynes view the classification of economic factors in Tinbergen’s analysis?

Answer 3

He debates the classification of certain factors as either demand or supply factors.

Question 4

What concerns does Keynes express about the interpretation of residuals and linear relations?

Answer 4

The interpretation of residuals and the assumption of linear relationships might not adequately represent the complexities of economic forces.

Question 5

What does Keynes stress about the role of economists and statisticians in interpreting statistical data?

Answer 5

The importance of understanding the theoretical and practical implications of statistical methods in economics.

Question 6

What is Keynes’ view on the inductive capabilities and predictive power of Tinbergen’s method?

Answer 6

He questions the inductive capabilities and the method’s ability to make accurate predictions about economic trends and cycles.

Question 7

What is the overall assessment of Tinbergen’s method according to Keynes?

Answer 7

While acknowledging the efforts behind it, Keynes remains skeptical about its applicability and effectiveness in economic research.