L33) Deglobalization Flashcards
Taking Stock of Where We Are Uneven Economic Impacts, Growing Inequalities Global Poverty & COVID-19 Geography of Poverty Impacts of COVID Pandemic Will Not End Globalization, but Reshape Globalization
What is de-globalization?
The slowing process of globalization
Was Globalization slowing before COVID years? Were there signs?
Yes, we had been seeing a downward trend in globalization in: (4)
- beginning in the Great Recession (trade GDP eases off & Import Intensity slows)
- backlash against globalization
- Consequences of globalization
- Rodrik’s Political Trilemma De-globalization
Signs that globalization is slowing down: Consequences of globalization
- increased Within-Country Inequalities
- increased Discontent
What does Rodrik’s Political Trilemma of De-Globalization entail?
one of the signs that globalization is slowing down
Political Trilemma of Deglobalization: world economy is facing a tradeoff (1 is sacrificed, you cannot have all 3).
Elements: Democracy, National sovereignty, Global Integration
What does the Trilemma tell us about globalization?
Due to a ride in democracy and national sovereignty, global integration is thus traded off and globalization begins slowing
How did COVID contribute to the de-globalization process?
- Movements of people & capital slow
- National manufacturing capabilities restructure, inward turn (increase demand in PPE calls for a necessary decrease in int’l dependency)
What was the global human toll of COVID-19 like?
Global human impacts of COVID were very uneven due to uneven economic impacts & growing income inequalities (2)
On int’l, nt’l, rgn’l, inter-regional, municipal impacts
What are some of the uneven international impacts of COVID? (OECD Countries)
- Unprecedented collapse in GDP (European countries faced the first brunt of economic contractions - 12-13%)
- Projections for post-COVID months: V & K-shaped recessions
-> K-Shaped Recession: financial market goes through quick recovery, commercial market does not
What are some of the uneven national impacts of COVID? (Canada)
- real GDP drops 17%
- Imports/Exports drop sharply, in 2022, return to pre-COVID numbers
- CPI: prices have only come back down in last 6 months
What are some of the uneven regional impacts of COVID? (Montreal)
Incomes are directly tied to brunt of COVID effects (death rates) => clear negative relationship (in Montreal)
Describes clear socioeconomic disparities: for visible minorities, gender-based, service-based
What are some of the municipal inter-regional impacts of COVID? (Nova Scotia)
Access to internet vs % of people not using internet
* Urban vs Rural areas
* % of people not using the internet who do not have a computer (10-25% of these people)
(lasting impact on young kids, online school)
What might the future of cities look like with the impacts of COVID? A big city Exodus?
Cities will continue to be important, here to stay. It is unlikely that urbanization will be derailed (depends on duration)
Longterm effects (3): social scarring, working remotely, environmental/urban reform
Opportunities for cities to prevent future pandemics (3): agglomeration economies, demographic transformations, environment/size considerations
How did COVID impact global impoverished people?
- Pre-COVID: steady downward trend in poverty rates thanks to Pro-Poor Inclusive Growth (Ex: MDG)
- During COVID: people became poor (World Bank: 9.4%->8.9%)
What did the geography of COVID’s poverty impacts look like?
- South Asia & Sub-Saharan Africa were most affected
- Middle-income countries became the ‘new poor’ (4/5 of baseline sufferings)
Example: Case of Peru
longest lockdown, highest MR
- income was not a determining factor of COVID effects
- regionally varying impacts (Rural vs Urban)
- Urbanization of Poverty: Total Urban Poverty (new cases emerge) & Extreme Poverty Increase
Different Experiences: Rural Areas were less affected, while Urban Centers were a ‘Locus of Outbreak’
