Kieran Flashcards
Uncertainty of Outcome
is a situation where a given contest within a league structure has a degree of unpredictability about the outcome of the result (Simmons and Forrest, 2002)
Probability/Betting odds is the most efficient way of measuring uncertainty of outcome.
Paul and Weinbach
2007, Found that National Football League division television audiences rose as an ex ante outcome uncertainty increased across games - outcome uncertainty was measured using betting odds
Buraimo and Simmons, 2008
Found that an increase in uncertainty of outcome is associated with reduced gate attendance, which can be interpreted as EPL fans of the home team, prefer to see their team play a much weaker team (and beat them) rather than attend a game that is predicted to be close in score and more uncertain
Buraimo and Simmons, 2009
Looked at the Spanish League and found that stadium attendees disliked uncertainty of outcome
Rottenberg
1956, Uncertainty of outcome is necessary if the consumer is willing to pay admission to the game
Forrest, Simmons and Buraimo
2005, were among the first to examine the effects of uncertainty of outcome among teleivision audiences and found that uncertainty of outcome did have the theorised impact on audience demand
Tainsky and McEvoy
2012, Examined the effects of Uncertainty of outcome on the size of television audience in the NFL and found that greater uncertainty of outcome resulted in greater audience demand in line with the hypothesis
Buraimo and Simmons 2015
found that TV audiences have now transitioned from a preference of uncertainty of outcome to a preference for star quality and talent, so maybe league should make it easier for clubs to attract star players
Szymanski
2003, the extent to which uncertainty of outcome positevly impacts consumer welfare is far from unambiguious
Borland and Macdonald
2003, Uncertainty of outcome can be viewed on three levels: Match level, Seasonal dimension, and Long run
Knowles, Sherony and Haupert
1992, examine the effects of uncertainty of outcome on game day attendance. They find as a home teams probability of winning is 0.6, stadium attendance is maximized, indicating stadium attendees have a preference for a win but not dominance
Alavy, Gaskall and Szymanski
2010, used minute by minute measures of television audiences demand and found in favour of the uncertainty of Outcome
El Hodiri and Quirk
1971, Offered a stylish version of a league with 2 teams, as the probability of either team winning approaches 1, gate receipts fall. Therefore both teams have a motive not to become too superior and should not amass all the best talent in the league. Therefore it is important to have competitive balance
Sloane
2015, The more the uncertainty of results of the games, the higher the public demand for sport. The more equal the quality of competing teams, the more uncertainty of the result.
Zimbalist
2002, proper competitive balance should be understood to exist when there are no clubs chronically weak because of MLBS financial structures