Key Terms Flashcards
What are the influences on decisions in markets?
- Economic expectations: conjectures about future economic events, based on three sources:
a) Past experiences
b) Learning processes
c) Knowledge and opinion about new circumstances - Consumer sentiment, “Consumer Climate”: Consumers’ expectations and intended actions Consumer sentiment and economic context
Which Consumer Sentiment Indices are there?
- Univesity of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: measures consumers’ subjective feelings about their indivdidual financial situation and overall economic conditions at present and in the future
- EU Consumer Sentiment Index: scores the consumers’ subjective views
- Conference board index
What is the profit maximisation principle?
Maximum result possible with the given quantity of resources
What is the cost minimisation principle?
Given result with minimum of resources
What are the axioms of preferences?
Basic assumptions about preferences that form the core of the rationality assumption
a) Completeness (A≥B; A≤B; A≈B)
actors can rank alternatives into a preference order
b) Transitivity (if A≥B and B≥C, then A≥C)
consistent preference order over alternatives
c) Reflexivity (A≈A)
every bundle of alternatives is just as good as itself
d) Non-satiation
actors prefer to possess more of a good and not less
e) Continuity
loss of a specific quantity of Good A can be compensated with receiving a specific quantity of another Good B
f) Convexity
actors possessing a small amount of Good A and a large amount of Good B will only be indifferent to the loss of part of A if they receive a proportionally larger quantity of B in return
What is homo economicus?
- Basic assumptions in economics: utility maximisation and rationality
- Homo economicus: paradigm of a utility-maximising and rationally behaving actor
• (neo-)classical economics
• Adopted by some psychological theories
What are psychological theories based on homo economicus?
- Exchange theories: relationships as exchange of material and immaterial resources
- Theses on social interaction (Nye, 1979)
• People making rational decisions
• People act and react in social interactions
• Benefits with some costs
• Behavioural patterns that have been rewarded in the past are repeated
• If no behavioural alternative promises a profit, people will attempt to hold costs as low as possible
• People are satisfied in their interactions when they get what they think they deserve
• Social contact is based on the norm of reciprocity
What are challenges to homo economicus?
Core question whether people actually want and are able to pursue their goals in the best possible, economically rational ways
What is economic psychology?
“Economical Psychology studies the psychological mechanisms and processes that underlie consumption and other economic behaviour. […]”
What is financial psychology?
- Studies experience and behaviour when dealing with money or highly liquid investments
What are similarities and differences between economic and financial psychology?
- Economics and psychology: similar interests, but also differences
• Approach: fundamental assumptions (prediction) vs inductive (theory)
• Methods: mathematical models vs statistical inference
• Data: aggregate and objective data vs observational and subjective data - Experiments
• Both in behavioural economics and economic psychology
• Differences in focus on learning, non-deception, financial incentives
What are decisions under certainty?
- Decisions where no probabilities are involved regarding the consequences of alternatives
- Decision-makers possess complete information about all possible alternatives and certainty about their consequences
What are decisions under uncertainty?
- Decisions where the consequences of alternatives do only occur with some probability
- Risky decisions: probabilities of consequences of alternatives are known
- Ambiguous decisions: probabilities of consequences of alternatives are only vaguely known
Which effects happen when it comes to preferences over decision types?
- Decisions under certainty to decisions under uncertainty
- Risky decisions to ambiguous decisions
• Ambiguity effect: decision-makers prefer risky decisions to ambiguous decisions
• Ellsberg paradox: decision-makers behave inconsistently between two formulations of the decision situation that have mathematically identical possible gains but differ in ambiguity. Demonstrates the ambiguity effect
What is the St. Petersburg paradox?
- Expected value theory
• Expected value = sum of products of probability and payoff
• Choose option with highest expected value
• St. Petersburg paradox illustrates that decision-makers do not base decisions on expected value
What is the Subjective expected utility theory?
- Subjective expected utility = sum of products of subjective probabilities and subjective utility of consequences
- Choose option with highest subjective expected utility
Which decisions models do exist?
- Normative decision models
• Specify how an (idealised) individual should make optimal decisions - Prescriptive decision models
• Use decision theory to offer step-by-step suggestions on how to proceed in a decision situation in order to make an optimal decision - Descriptive decision models
• Describe how individuals actually make decisions
What is the Ultimatum game?
- Decision-makers have to divide a good between themselves and another person
- If the other person rejects the proposed division, both leave empty-handed
- Rules
• From a budget m, Player A offers p to Player B
• If Player B accepts, B gets p and A gets (m-p)
• If Player B rejects, B gets 0 and A gets 0 - Game-theoretic prediction
• A gives minimum positive amount possible (e.g. 1€ out of 100€)
• B accepts because any positive amount is better than Zero (e.g., 1€ is better than 0€) - Empirical findings
• Higher offers than minimum are made (on average, 44% of the available total amount) and low offers (<30% of the available total amount) are rejected
• Variations occur, but even in very different societies, game-theoretic prediction is supported - It’s about generosity and strategy
• Strategic consideration may crowd out impulses of generosity
What is the dictator game?
- Decision-makers have to divide a good between themselves and another person
- The other person has to accept the proposed division
- Rules
• From a budget m, Player A offers p to Player B
• B gets p, A gets (m-p) - Game-theoretic prediction
• A gives nothing - Empirical findings
• Many people give something to the other person; on average, 28% of the amount - It’s about generosity
• Social norm for sharing
• Guilt aversion
• Generosity depends on social distance
What is the prisoner’s dilemma?
- Two decision-makers independently have to decide between cooperation and defection
- While from an individual perspective defection is the rational solution, the overall outcome is better if both cooperate
Game-theoretic prediction: both players defect
Empirical findings: many people cooperate, trusting that the other person will also cooperate
What is backward induction?
- Multiple rounds allow
• Learning about trustworthiness of partner
• Punishment for defection - Last round similar to one-shot game, therefore defection again rational strategy
- Backward induction
• Analysis of repeated decision problems
• Starts from considering rational solution in last round
• From that solution, rational solution in previous round can be derived, and so on
What are decision anomalies?
- Decision anomalies: deviations from rational model
• In complex everyday decision situations often the rule, not the exception: Anomalies are quite normal
• Even decisions of experts in companies, political and administrative institutions - Decision anomalies result from
• Information processing
• Emotions
• Time
• Heuristics
What is the Monty Hall dilemma?
- Decision-markers have to decide whether to revise a previous decision when presented with additional information
- Demonstrates that people have difficulties understanding probabilities
- Maximization strategy
• Switch - Empirical findings
• Very few people switch from their first choice
• Explanations:
-> Misunderstanding of probabilities
-> Regret
What is affective forecasting?
- Prediction of emotional reactions to future events
- Four components
• Valence
• Specific emotions
• Intensity
• Duration