Kapitel 1 Flashcards
What is the difference between normative and descriptive decision theory?
Normative decision theory focuses on how decisions should be made, while descriptive decision theory explains how decisions are actually made. Normative decision theory proposes different decision rules that take into account different risk attitudes, while descriptive decision theory observes and analyzes the actual decision-making processes.
What are the components of a decision situation in formal decision theory?
Components of a decision situation in formal decision theory:
-Alternatives (available actions)
-Environmental states (mutually exclusive combinations of influencing factors)
-Outcomes (results of chosen actions and environmental states)
-Objective function (used to evaluate and select the best alternative)
Normative decision theory assumptions:
-Rational decision maker
-Complete information
What are some decision rules suggested by normative decision theory?
Normative decision theory proposes several decision rules:
- Maximin rule: Choose the alternative with the best outcome among the worst outcomes. Suitable for pessimistic decision-makers.
- Maximax rule: Select the alternative with the best outcome among all alternatives. Suitable for optimistic decision-makers.
- Hurwicz principle: Combine maximin and maximax rules using an optimism index. Choose the alternative with the highest weighted sum.
- Savage-Niehans rule: Compare regrets for each environmental state. Select the alternative with the lowest highest regret.
- Bernoulli principle: Use a utility function to assign values to outcomes. Choose the alternative with the highest expected utility.
- µ-σ principle: Consider expected value and standard deviation. Use a preference function to select the alternative with the highest preference value.
These rules can be applied in uncertain situations without requiring probabilities.
How can the concept of risk attitude be defined based on the (μ;σ) principle?
Risk attitude is determined by the (μ;σ) principle:
-Risk neutral: Indifferent to risk, focuses on expected results (μ).
-Risk-averse: Prefers lower risk alternatives.
-Risk seeking: Prefers higher risk alternatives for potential higher gains.
How is risk defined?
Risk is defined as a potential adverse deviation of an actual result from its target.
What are examples of risks?
Examples of risks:
-Actual revenues in the current fiscal year lower than the revenue target
-Actual costs next year higher than next year’s cost target
-Expectation of a fall in profits this year, which might actually be higher
How is risk understood in this definition?
Risk definition: Adverse deviations are considered as risk, while favorable deviations are seen as opportunities.
Does the broader definition of risk also include favorable deviations?
In a broader definition, the term risk includes both adverse and favorable deviations (upside and downside risks). However, this definition is not used here.
What happens when the potential deviation becomes a reality?
When the potential deviation becomes a reality, the risk or opportunity materializes.
What is the goal of risk management?
Goal of risk management: Direct and control all risk-related activities of a company, not eliminate risk entirely.
Why do companies implement initiatives despite the presence of risk?
Companies implement initiatives, even though they involve risk, because they aim to realize opportunities and make strategic advancements.
What is the ultimate objective of risk management?
The ultimate goal of risk management is to influence and monitor the risk situation of a company, with the aim of ensuring its success and survival.
Who is responsible for risk management within a company?
Senior management is typically responsible for risk management, and it is an integral part of the company’s auditing process.
What is risk appetite?
Risk appetite refers to the extent and type of risks that a company is willing to engage in or accept. It is influenced by the company’s risk attitude.
What is risk culture?
Risk culture is a component of the overall corporate culture and refers to the values, beliefs, knowledge, attitudes, and understanding about risk shared by a group of people within an organization, particularly its employees.