Judgement & Decision Making [W10]

Question 1

def: base-rate neglect

Answer 1

If presented with related base rate information and specific information, people tend to ignore the base rate in favour of the individuating information, instead of correctly considering both

Question 2

def: judgement

Answer 2

the way people use cues to determine what’s happening in the external world

Question 3

def: decision making

Answer 3

Wider process, which includes judgement, whereby people choose which action to take

Question 4

def: natural sampling

Answer 4

a sample based on what generally happens in our every day lives, which may not be representative of the wider world

Question 5

def: base rate

Answer 5

the relative frequency of an event within a given population

Question 6

def: conjunction fallacy

Answer 6

the mistaken belief that the combination of two events is more likely than one of the two events on its own

Question 7

def: heuristics

Answer 7

mental shortcut that allows people to solve problems and make judgements quickly and efficiently; rules of thumb

Question 8

def: representativeness heuristic

Answer 8

the assumption that a person or object belongs to a specific category because it is typical of that category; almost like steretyping that someone belongs to a group whether or not they do

Question 9

def: affect heuristic

Answer 9

using emotional responses to influence rapid judgements or decisions; “going with your gut”

Question 10

def: availability heuristic

Answer 10

the tendency to use information that comes to mind quickly and easily when making a decision rather than using the actual frequency of that kind of event

Question 11

def: recognition heuristic

Answer 11

making a choice among a set of alternatives by placing a higher value on the things you recognise

Question 12

def: loss aversion

Answer 12

greater sensitivity to potential losses than potential gains; shown in most people who are trying to make a decision

Question 13

def: framing effect

Answer 13

the finding that decisions can be influenced by situation aspects that are irrelevant to good decision making

Question 14

def: sunk-cost fallacy/effect

Answer 14

you consider what resources (time, money, etc.) you’ve already put toward a previously unsuccessful decision and double down instead of giving up

Question 15

Kahneman’s two systems of decision making…

Answer 15

1) fast, automatic, efortless, implicit, often emotionally charged, difficult to control or mod
2) slow, effortful, consciously monitered, deliberate, flexible, rule based

Question 16

def: impact bias

Answer 16

overestimating how intense and long negative emotional reactions are going to be in the face of loss

Question 17

def: support theory

Answer 17

events appear more or less likely based on how it’s described; more explicit description seems more likely (brings to mind less obvious aspects) than less explicit description

Question 18

def: omission bias

Answer 18

bias toward harm through inaction over harm through action; would rather suffer due to inaction than suffer because you did something that caused you to suffer

Question 19

def: omission bias

Answer 19

do nothing rather than do something that might have negative consequences, even if it’s irrational

Question 20

def: status quo bias

Answer 20

bias toward maintaining the status quo over acting to change one’s decision

Question 21

What biases can result from fear and anticipated regret over any rational framework?

Answer 21

status quo bias, omission bias, deferral

Question 22

def: bounded rationality

Answer 22

the idea that people are as rational as their environment and processing capacity permits

Question 23

that satisficers are _______ and ________ than maximisers (or perfectionists),

Answer 23

happier, more optimistic (Schwartz et al., 2002)

Question 24

that satisficers are _______ and ________ than maximisers (or perfectionists),

Answer 24

happier, more optimistic (Schwartz et al., 2002)

Question 25

def: selective exposure

Answer 25

preference for info that supports pre-existing views and avoiding information that conflicts w/ those views

Question 26

def: judgement research

Answer 26

using various, often ambiguous cutes to infer things about the situation or event

Question 27

What did Rev. Thomas Bayes theorise about?

Answer 27

the probability of two related hypotheses being correct

Question 28

Gigerenzer and Hoffrage (1995, 1999) argued that our experience of the world typically comes not in the form of probabilities, but in the form of:

Answer 28

Frequencies

Question 29

What did Gigerenzer and Hoffrage (1999, p. 425) define as “the process of encountering instances in a population sequentially”?

Answer 29

natural sampling

Question 30

def: normative theories

Answer 30

focus on how people should make decisions rather than how they actually make decisions

Question 31

def: prospect theory

Answer 31

decision-making depends on choosing among options that may themselves rest on biased judgments

Question 32

Framing effects should only be found when what is at stake has real value for the decision maker, according to which theory?

Answer 32

Prospect theory

Question 33

According to Anderson (2003), the main motivation on which people make their choices is to:

Answer 33

reduce negative emotions

Question 34

According to prospect theory, people are typically much more sensitive to potential ______ than to potential ______.

Answer 34

losses, gains