Judgement And Reasoning Flashcards
What is the orbitofrontal cortex?
An area just behind the eyeballs. Many researches are that this brain reason plays a crucial role in the processes through which we detect and interpret our emotions.
What is attribute substitution?
Attribute substitution is a strategy in which you rely on easily assessed information as a proxy for the information you really need.
In the availability heuristic, what is the information you need, and what attribute do you use as a substitute?
When you substitute availability for frequency. When you determine how frequent an event is based on the availability of it in your memory. This can sometimes be abused (diabolical professor - asked to list 10 potential errors of a class rather then 2. Because harder to list students presume it must be because there’s little ways for class to improve). Another example list words with r, words with third letter (more words but people presume words starting with r there’s more words because info more available.
In the representativeness heuristic, what is the information you need, and what attribute do you use as a substitute?
Just like the availability heuristic, this can often too lead to the correct conclusion. The representativeness heuristic relies on homogeneity (the fact that a certain thing is similar to something else, birds and their traits like wings, feathers, etc). Probability is replaced with resemblance. Gamblers fallacy (tossed coin comes up 7 times, presumes the next one will MOST LIKELY be tails. Not true - next throw I dependant of previous)
What is a “man who” argument? Why are “man who” arguments often misleading?
Man who argument, for example, is when you may suggest that you’re going to buy an android for a new phone. Your friend may look at you shocked “an android phone!!!?!? My sister got one and it broke within a week! How could you possibly buy an android!?” Even though the magazines say that androids have a 2% repair rate, your friend probably thinks they’re producing a solid argument. In your friends “data”, 100% of the Android phones broke (one out of one). Another example is when you suggest smoking causes cancer, someone may say “my Nan has been smoking for 50 years and she’s fine!!”
What is a base rate? Why is base rate information important?
Base rate information is how often things occur in general. People generally detect covariation because of confirmation bias, so it’s important to asses base rate information. In the example of Kahneman and Tversky, participants were told that in a group of 100, 70 were likely to be lawyers, and 30 engineers. However when given certain diagnostic information based on underlying stereotypes types, the probabilities somehow changed in the participants eyes.
What are the differences between Type 1 and Type 2 thinking?
The dual process models proposes two types of thinking: type 1 (fast, easy sort of thinking), and type 2 (slower, more effortful thinking). It’s hard to argue that we can choose which type of thinking to utilise, because it’s shown that even in super important decisions people still use type 1, unconsciously. Type 2 requires more effort.
What are some of the factors that can, in some settings, encourage (or perhaps allow) Type 2 thinking?
Studies show that people who tend to have a better scientific understanding are more likely to use type 2 thinking and even seem more analytic in their moral decisions.
What is inductive reasoning and what is deductive reasoning?
Inductive reasoning is process in which you make forecasts about new cases based on general cases you’ve observed so far.
Inductive reasoning: SPECIFIC to GENERAL
Deductive reasoning is a process in which you start with claims or assertions that you count as “given” and ask what follows from these premises.
Deductive reasoning: GENERAL to SPECIFIC
What is confirmation bias? What are some of the specific forms that confirmation bias can take?
Confirmation bias is a greater sensitivity to confirming evidence and a tendency to neglect disconfirming evidence.
Forms of confirmation bias:
1. When you’re more likely to seek evidence that might confirms the belief rather than disconfirming.
2. The failure to use disconfirming evidence to adjust their belief.
3. When people encounter confirming evidence they take it at face value, when it’s disconfirming, they reinterpret it and diminish its impact.
4. People show better memory for confirming evidence, and remember disconfirming evidence in a distorted form.
5. Failure to consider the alternate hypothesis that may explain the data just as well as the current hypothesis.
Studies show that those who sought disconfirming evidence in the number rule experiment actually were quicker figuring out the rule.
What is the role of confirmation bias in producing belief perseverance?
Belief perseverance is when disconfirming evidence is undeniable, however is STILL not used. This was demonstrated in an experiment where people had to determine who wrote suicide notes, were told whether or not they were doing good or bad midway, then got told later that the things they were told were completely wrong. Participants, however, utilising confirmation bias still rated themselves as better at the task if they were told they were good and bad if they got told they were bad, even though they got told that this feedback was bogus.
What are valid categorical syllogisms, and what are invalid syllogisms?
Categorical valid syllogisms
All M are B
All D are M
Therefore, all D are B.
All X are Y
Some A are X
Therefore, some A are Y.
Some A are not B
All A are G
Therefore, some G are not B.
Invalid: All P are M All S are M Therefore, all S are P. Chapman and Chapman (1959) gave this syllogism, and most endorsed the invalid conclusion.
What is belief bias? Why is belief bias a problem in logical reasoning?
Belief bias is if the participants believe the syllogisms conclusion is true, they are likely to believe that it logically follows from the premises. They they believe the conclusion to be false, they are likely to reject that the conclusion logically followed from the premises. This shows a failure to distinguish logical arguments, are sometimes more likely to endorse illogical ones.
What is the four-card (or selection) task? How well do people perform in this task?
Psychologists often study conditional reasoning with the selection task (sometimes called the four card task). Where participants are told “If a card has a vowel on one side, it MUST have an even number on the other side”. (90% got it wrong) The cards shown included A, 6, J and 7. Participants often wrongly choose which cards to flip, with the correct answer being A and 7. However, with Griggs and Coxs version (someone drinking alcohol MUST be at least 21 years of age) proved way better results which shows that how well you think depends on what you’re thinking about. (73% better results)
What is utility maximisation?
Refers to the value you place on a particular outcome. Therefore, you should make decision that will bring you as much utility as possible.
