IV-Industry Analysis-2 Flashcards
可以有哪三种方法
identify similar companies
- products/service similarity
- business cycle sensitivity
- statistical similarity
【Business Cycle】
- cyclical firm 特点2
- cyclical firm 举例
- non-cyclical firm分类
- non-cyclical firm举例
- higher demand/earnings volatility, high operating leverage
- consumer discretionary, 工业材料
- defensive/ growth (specific demands that are so strong)
- consumer staples, health care, tele, utilities
【classification systems】
一，commercial 各有几个tiers?
- Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS)
- Russell Global Sectors (RGS)
- Industry Classification Benchmark (ICB)
二，Government classification 与commercial不同3
三，limitations of current systems
- 4-tiers
- 3-tiers
- 4-tiers
- gov不identify individual companies
- gov不区分，包括public/private, small/large, for-profit, non-profit. commercial 主要public,for-profit
- gov updated less frequently
细分组内公司很难作为peer group 相比较
【Industry Classification】
10 broad sectors
- basic materials and processing
- industrial/producer durables
- consumer discretionary
- consumer staples
- technology
- telecommunications
- financial services
- health care
- energy
- utilities
construct a peer group
5 steps
- use commercial classification systems to find industry
- 读目标公司财报的竞争环境分析章节，找competitors
- 读competitor财报竞争环境分析章节，找更多competitors
- 读industry trade publications找competitors
- 确认找到的companies业务与目标公司相似
Strategic Analysis
- 包括哪些？
- Michael Porter’s Five Forces model
及最重要的
- 波特五力模型+external factors
- threat of entry
- power of suppliers
- power of buyers
- threat of substitutes
- existing competition
重要的：1，5
【Strategic Analysis】
分析threat of new entrants and existing competition
考虑6个问题
- barriers to entry
- how concentrated is industry
- capacity levels
- how stable are market shares
- where is the industry in life cycle
- price competition
【strategic analysis】pricing power
问题1： barriers to entry 2
- high barrier does not necessarily mean high pricing power:如consumer comodities
- high barrier to exist leads to overproduction, less pricing power. ease to exist: more pricing power
【strategic analysis】pricing power
问题2: industry concentration: 四个例子
- concentrated, strong power: 重资产，非面向消费，tobacco, alcohol
- concentrated, low power: 重资产，面向消费：飞机制造，汽车制造
- fragmented, high power:资产管理
- fragemented, low power: consumer goods
【strategic analysis】pricing power
问题3: industry capacity 4
- undercapacity: more pricing power
- overcapacity: more power
- physical capacity: 注意时间滞后因素
- human capacity: easy to adjust
【strategic analysis】pricing power
问题4: market share stability 3
- stable market share: low competitiveness
- unstable market share: highly competitive, low pricing power
- 两个决定因素：switching cost, tech innovation
【strategic analysis】pricing power
问题5: life cycle 5个阶段
- embryonic
- growth
- shakeout
- mature
- decline
【strategic analysis】pricing power
问题6: price competition 1
如果行业产品price is a large factor in customer purchase，行业竞争更激烈
if customers attribute to other factors more, more pricing power
【life cycle】
embryonic stage 4
+
key stategic initiative?
- slow growth
- high price:消费者还没接受新产品
- need large investment
- failure risk
- increase product awareness, develop distribution channel
【life cycle】
growth stage 4
+
另一特点
- rapidly increasing demand
- limited competitiveness: 市场足够大，没必要从别人手里偷客户
- falling price: economies of scale, developed distribution channels
- increasing profitability
- threat of new competitors entering the industry is the highest of all stages
