IRAN Flashcards
Iran civilian nuclear reactor
Iran claim to be developing nuclear power for civilian use (energy)
Civilian nuclear reactor = created by Russia
BUT
- For many years it failed to abide by UN / IAEA demands
- Iran was predicted to have a usable nuclear bomb soon; this would have HUGE consequences on the regional balance of power, international relations and nuclear deterrence
February 2010: Iran goes ahead with uranium enrichment
Iran would give them low enrichment uranium and the West would turn it into nuclear fuel and return to Iran for civilian uses. Deal failed
Tuesday 9 February 2010: Iran commences uranium enrichment
Thursday 11 February 2010: Ahmadinejad declares Iran “a nuclear state”
Leaked IAEA report – Iran may be developing nuclear missile
May 2010 – January 2011: Diplomatic games
Six powers
17 May 2010: Iran, Turkey and Brazil close a deal
- Iran has 2,200 kilos of uranium
- 1,200 kilos will be given to Turkey to turn it into (civilian) nuclear fuel
- Does not address the issue of Iran enriching its uranium at 20%
December 2010 / January 2011:
- “Six powers” (US, UK, France, Russia, China, Germany) led by the EU’s foreign policy chief Lady Ashton + Iran
- Talks ended in stalemate because Iran demands the lifting of sanctions (and recognition of its right to enrich) before any deal
November 2011 – January 2012: IAEA report and embargo (ban)
November 2011: IAEA Report
- Presents evidence that Iran has carried out activities “relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device”.
January 2012:
- EU imposes oil embargo against Iran
- IAEA confirms Iran started production of uranium enriched up to 20% (medium-level) at a secret underground plant at Qom
September 2012: Netanyahu’s “red line” speech
“I believe that faced with a clear red line, Iran will back down,”
What happens when the US and Israel try to destroy their nuclear bases?
Israel’s prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, has called on the international community to set a “clear, red line” to stop Iran making a nuclear weapon, a line he claimed would be reached as early as next spring.
- time running out
- once Iran gets the bomb then it’s impossible to attack it using conventional weapons because it could go nuclear
BUT
- nuclear facilities are spread out across the country
- Impossible to hit all of them simultaneously
- Likely targets: Isfahan, Natanz, Arak
- Some facilities (e.g. Natanz) are in concrete-protected underground bunkers and require “bunker busters”
- This requires extreme precision and low-level flights
- S300 surface-to-air missiles secretly sold to Iran by Russia – can destroy up to 30% of Israeli jets
- Environmental/humanitarian cost: if Bushehr (main – and nearly complete - nuclear reactor) is hit > long-term mass destruction, hundreds of thousands dead/cancer
War Games: Israel v. Iran
Can Israel go it alone?
At what cost?
They could because it is technically possible BUT
- extremely risky, huge cost (political/diplomatic, security/defence, humanitarian, economic); no guarantee of success
- Their ballistic missiles aren’t precise enough
- Targets are 1,800klm away from Israeli bases; Israeli jets will need refuelling on air (Israel has only 8-10 such flying tankers; US = 80)
- Neighbouring (Muslim) countries will react (Turkey, Syria)
- Will trigger counter-attack by Iran + by Hezbollah and Hamas
- Likely outcome: to delay the programme by 2-10 years
US Response to Iran -
Hawks
The Obama Administration
US govt ‘hawks’ and the Israeli lobby in Washington have been pushing for pre-emptive strikes against all known nuclear targets
The Obama Administration did not rule out the military option; but Obama favoured diplomacy / the soft response: not just for humanitarian reasons (ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan – big risk of over-stretching)
When might Israel theoretically attack Iran?
Most likely time: April to June - because of weather reasons
Iran’s nuclear programme Nuclear arms race in the Middle East
(who’s going to make a nuclear bomb first)
Nuclear weapons in the hands of the Iranian regime will have severe repercussions for American security and the security of our allies
The Israeli defence minister has warned of a coming nuclear arms race in the Middle East as other Arab states seek to develop weapons to counter Iran.
US strategic aim: to arm regional powers in the ME to act as deterrents
17 December 2009: US and UAE push billion-dollar nuclear co-operation deal
US / France: competing for nuclear reactors exports to UAE and Saudi Arabia (trade & industry interests)
UAE: First reactor exp. in 2017
Russia has made nuclear deals with: Egypt, Jordan, Algeria, Morocco, and the UAE; in talks with Turkey
A nuclear-armed Iran poses a threat to America’s closest allies in the Middle East. Israel is most at risk as Iran’s leaders have repeatedly declared that Israel should “be wiped from the map.” America’s moderate Arab allies, such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and others are already alarmed at Iran’s aggressive regional policy and would feel increasingly threatened by a nuclear-armed Iran.
John Kerry
Former US Secretary of State (under President Obama)
Proactive foreign policy in the Middle East (Syria, Palestine/Israel, Iran)
A New President, a New Hope?
Hassan Rouhani
January 2014 Nuclear Deal (Temporary)
Hassan Rouhani - current president of Iran
Iran will halt further - and will dilute existing - stockpiles of near-20% enriched uranium.
It will not build new or develop its existing enrichment facilities.
In return, the world powers will ease sanctions and will provide Iran with relief / aid.
Six-month test period
(Six month test period extended several times
Revised deadline: 31 March 2015. Planned date for signing the final agreement: 30 June 2015)
Agreement reached on 2 April 2015 by Iran
(nuclear deal) FINAL DEAL…
“no agreement on any nuclear topic”
“The topic of transferring uranium abroad has been circulating for a while, but we haven’t had any agreement in this regard.”
Iran denies it wants to develop nuclear weapons and insists its programme is peaceful.
they agreed:
- 2015: 20,000 centrifuges limited to installing up to 5,060 of the oldest and least efficient ones at Natanz for 10 years
- Uranium stockpile to be reduced by 98% to 300kg for 15 years
- Redesign the reactor at Arak so as to not be able to produce weapons-grade plutonium
- IAEA inspectors will continuously monitor Iran’s declared nuclear sites and will verify that no material is moved covertly to a secret location
- Sanctions imposed by the UN, the US and the EU (costing the Iranian economy more than £110bn in oil revenue alone) will be lifted.
What is the current situaition with Iran?
Are they complying?
Iran is so far fully complying with the nuclear agreement, BUT has been recently carrying out ballistic missile tests WHICH are prohibited
Tests covered by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
Iran contends that the wording does not prohibit launchings and that since it has no nuclear weapons, there is no violation.
