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Lecture 3 > Iran > Flashcards

Iran Flashcards

1
Q

What does Iran claim?

A

claims it has been developing nuclear power for civilian uses (energy)
Civilian nuclear reactor = built by Russia

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2
Q

Even though Iran make a claim about developing nuclear power for civilian energy what still stands?

A

♣ For many years it failed Iran abide by UN / IAEA demands
♣ (Former) President Ahmadinejad repeatedly called for the destruction of Israel
♣ Iran was predicted to have a usable nuclear bomb soon; this would have HUGE consequences on the regional balance of power, international relations and nuclear deterrence

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3
Q

What does Iran do in February 2010?

A

Iran steps up uranium enrichment (up to 20%)
Gave 3-month deadline to the West for deal: Iran would give them low enrichment uranium and the West would turn it into nuclear fuel and return to Iran for civilian uses. Deal failed.
Tuesday 9 February 2010: Iran commences uranium enrichment
Thursday 11 February 2010: Ahmadinejad declares Iran “a nuclear state”
Thursday 18 February 2010:
Leaked IAEA report – Iran may be developing nuclear missile

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4
Q

What did Iran then do on the 17th may?

A

Iran, Turkey and Brazil close a deal

  • Iran has 2,200 kilos of uranium
  • 1,200 kilos will be given to Turkey to turn it into (civilian) nuclear fuel
  • Agreement criticised because it (a) circumvents the UN/IAEA process, (b) it leaves 1,000 kilos unaccounted for (which Iran refuses to surrender) and (c) does not address the issue of Iran enriching its uranium at 20%
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5
Q

What does the IAEA report find in January 2011?

A

Presents evidence that Iran has carried out activities “relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device

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6
Q

What does the US do in 2012 after finding out that Iran has carried out relevant activities towards the development of nuclear explosives?

A
  • US imposes sanctions on Iran’s central bank and against three oil companies that trade with Iran (including China’s state oil company)
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7
Q

What does the EU after the IAEA report?

A

Impose an oil embargo on Iran

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8
Q

What does IAEA confirm?

A
  • IAEA confirms Iran started production of uranium enriched up to 20% (medium-level) at a secret underground plant at Qom
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9
Q

What is Netanyahu’s ‘red line speech?

A

Netanyahu is Israels prime minster and he called on the international communities to set a clear red line to stop Iran making a nuclear weapon

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10
Q

What is Iran’s red line?

A

Acquiring high enriched uranium

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11
Q

Why is it bad when Iran has gone past the red line?

A

-Time is running out
-♣ once Iran gets the bomb then it’s impossible to attack it using conventional weapons because it could go nuclear
♣ Window of opportunity for US / Israel to attack nuclear plants & HQs before it’s too late

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12
Q

Why is it bad if Israel/ US attack the nuclear power plants?

A

♣ Impossible to hit all of them simultaneously
♣ Likely targets: Isfahan, Natanz, Arak
♣ Some facilities (e.g. Natanz) are in concrete-protected underground bunkers and require “bunker busters”
♣ This requires extreme precision and low-level flights
♣ S300 surface-to-air missiles secretly sold to Iran by Russia – can destroy up to 30% of Israeli jets
♣ Environmental/humanitarian cost: if Bushehr (main – and nearly complete - nuclear reactor) is hit > long-term mass destruction, hundreds of thousands dead/cancer

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13
Q

Why can’t Israel go it alone with Iran?

A
  • extremely risky, huge cost (political/diplomatic, security/defence, humanitarian, economic); no guarantee of success
  • Their ballistic missiles aren’t precise enough
  • Targets are 1,800klm away from Israeli bases; Israeli jets will need refuelling on air (Israel has only 8-10 such flying tankers; US = 80)
  • Neighbouring (Muslim) countries will react (Turkey, Syria)
  • Will trigger counter-attack by Iran + by Hezbollah and Hamas
  • Likely outcome: to delay the programme by 2-10 years
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14
Q

What is the US’s response to Irans nuclear weapon development?

A

US govt ‘hawks’ and the Israeli lobby in Washington have been pushing for pre-emptive strikes against all known nuclear targets (research plants and reactors)
The Obama Administration did not rule out the military option; but Obama favoured diplomacy / the soft response: not just for humanitarian reasons (ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan – big risk of over-stretching)
During the last few years: arming UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar with patriot missiles (surface-to-air, ABM); US Navy presence in SE Mediterranean and the Gulf carrying ABM = creating an anti-missile shield around Iran

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15
Q

When is the most likely time for a nuclear attack?

A

Between April to June

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16
Q

What has Iran’s nuclear programme created?

A

A nuclear arms race in the middle east

17
Q

What is US strategic aim when it comes to Iran’s nuclear programme?

A

To arm regional powers iN ME to act as deterrents

18
Q

What do the UAE and US do on the 17th December 2009?

A

Push billion dollar nuclear co-operation deal

19
Q

When is the first reactor expected to made in the UAE?

A

2017

20
Q

Who is John Kerry?

A

Former US Secretary of State (under President Obama)

Proactive foreign policy in the Middle East (Syria, Palestine/Israel, Iran)

21
Q

Who is the new president of Iran?

A

Hassan Rouhani

22
Q

What is the new Iran nuclear deal that happened in January 2014?

A

Iran will halt further - and will dilute existing - stockpiles of near-20% enriched uranium. It will not build new or develop its existing enrichment facilities.
In return, the world powers will ease sanctions and will provide Iran with relief / aid.
Six-month test period

23
Q

When was the planned date for signing the final agreement of the Nuclear deal?

A

30 June 2015

24
Q

What is the april 2015 agreement?

A

¥ Uranium enrichment:
2015: 20,000 centrifuges limited to installing up to 5,060 of the oldest and least efficient ones at Natanz for 10 years
Uranium stockpile to be reduced by 98% to 300kg for 15 years
Keep the level of enrichment down to 3.67%
R&D to only take place at Natanz
¥ Plutonium plant:
Redesign the reactor at Arak so as to not be able to produce weapons-grade plutonium
20 tonnes of heavy water to be shipped to the US
No more heavy-water reactors to be built
¥ Monitoring:
IAEA inspectors will continuously monitor Iran’s declared nuclear sites and will verify that no material is moved covertly to a secret location
IAEA inspectors are allowed to access any site anywhere in the country that they deem suspicious
24 day notice to comply with IAEA access request.
¥ Sanctions:
Sanctions imposed by the UN, the US and the EU (costing the Iranian economy more than £110bn in oil revenue alone) will be lifted.

25
Q

Iran is so far fully complying with the nuclear agreement, BUT has been recently carrying out ballistic missile tests (these missiles could potentially carry a nuclear warhead)

  • These tests are not prohibited under the agreement; they are a separate issue.
  • Tests covered by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (objected to the agreement; not fully controlled by the President)
  • Q. Are critics correct that Iran has violated provisions of a Security Council resolution banning missile launchings?
  • A. That depends on your interpretation of the resolution, 2231, adopted in July, that put the nuclear agreement into effect. That measure terminated all other resolutions that had penalized Iran for its nuclear program, but it called on the country to refrain from engaging in ballistic missile activity “designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons.” Iran contends that the wording does not prohibit launchings and that since it has no nuclear weapons, there is no violation.
A

Iran is so far fully complying with the nuclear agreement, BUT has been recently carrying out ballistic missile tests (these missiles could potentially carry a nuclear warhead)

  • These tests are not prohibited under the agreement; they are a separate issue.
  • Tests covered by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (objected to the agreement; not fully controlled by the President)
  • Q. Are critics correct that Iran has violated provisions of a Security Council resolution banning missile launchings?
  • A. That depends on your interpretation of the resolution, 2231, adopted in July, that put the nuclear agreement into effect. That measure terminated all other resolutions that had penalized Iran for its nuclear program, but it called on the country to refrain from engaging in ballistic missile activity “designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons.” Iran contends that the wording does not prohibit launchings and that since it has no nuclear weapons, there is no violation.
26
Q

What is the shadow war between Iran and Israel?

A

Is Mossad assassinating Iran’s nuclear scientists?

Have intelligence services infiltrated Iran’s nuclear programme?

“Decapitating a hostile nuclear program by taking out key human assets is a tactic that has proven its effectiveness over the years, particularly in the case of Iraq.” (Stratfor)

27
Q

Ardeshir Hosseinpour, Isfahan

1 – January 2007

A

Junior scientist, assistant professor, authority on electromagnetism
Involved in Iran’s nuclear programme
Co-founded the Nuclear Technology Center of Isfahan
US private intelligence company (Stratfor): Hosseinpour = Mossad target
Suspected cause of death = radioactive poisoning
Italian investigative journalist = Hosseinpour may have wanted to defect

28
Q

2 – June 2009

Shahram Amiri, Saudi Arabia

A

Expert on radioactive isotopes in Tehran; employee of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation
Disappeared during trip to Saudi Arabia in May/June 2009
Iran claimed he had been kidnapped by US agents
Reports suggested he had defected to the US
Disappearance linked to revelation of second uranium enrichment facility near the city of Qom; Washington sources claimed he was US spy
July 2010: returns to Iran (authorities may have threatened to hurt his family); alt theory = worked as an Iranian spy in the US

29
Q

3 - November 2009

Stuxnet computer worm, Natanz

A

Apparent aim = sabotage uranium enrichment facility at Natanz
Worm affected rotor speed; may have destroyed up to 1000 centrifuges
Israel / Mossad suspected to be behind Stuxnet
During Gabi Ashkenazi’s (Israeli Defence Force Chief of Staff) retirement party operational successes (including Stuxnet) were celebrated
Cyber-attack seen as a more effective option than military strikes

30
Q

4 – January 2010

Masoud Alimohammadi, Tehran

A

Quantum field theorist and elementary-particle physicist
Assassinated on 12/1/2010 while leaving home by a remotely controlled explosion of a booby-trapped motorbike parked near his car
Was member of SESAME (the International Centre for Synchrotron-Light for Experimental Science and Applications in the Middle East) – an independent laboratory based in Jordan
Iran’s AEA rejected reports that he worked for the nuclear programme
Iran accused Israel and the US of being responsible for his death
Iranian national Majid Jamali Fashi arrested, confessed and executed; ID may have been revealed by US WikiLeaks cable via Azerbaijan

31
Q

5 - October 2010

Explosion at missile base, Khorramabad

A

Blast at an Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps base
Base housed Iran’s Shahab-3 missiles (based on North Korean design)
Missiles said to have range of 1,200 miles (can reach Israel)
IAEA found evidence Iran trying to make nuclear warhead small enough to put on the top of a Shahab-3.
Iran accuses Israel of trying to halt its missile programme

32
Q

6 – November 2010

Majid Shahriari, Tehran

A

Nuclear engineer, worked with the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran
Specialised in neutron transport (key to nuclear chain reactions in bombs)
Top scientist and senior manager of Iran’s nuclear programme (Time)
29/11/2010: assassins riding motorcycles launched separate attacks with bombs (attached to the cars, detonated remotely) against Shahriari and Fereydoon Abbasi (professor at Shahriari’s university)
Iran accuses West of “exercising terrorism to liquidate Iran’s nuclear scientists”
Abbasi survived; promoted to overall control of the nuclear programme

33
Q

7 – July 2011

Darioush Rezaei-Nejad, Tehran

A

35-year-old postgraduate electrical engineering student (?)
Killed by gunmen riding motorcycles on 23/07/2011 (wife injured) while waiting for their child outside a kindergarten
Some reports (including from Iran’s semi-official news agency) initially identified victim as Darioush Rezaei (46-year-old physicist, expert in neutron transport, involved in Iran’s nuclear programme)
Is this a case of mistaken identity? Or was the victim actually involved with the nuclear programme?

34
Q

8 - November 2011

Hassan Moghaddam, Bid Ganeh

A

Engineer, trained in ballistic science by China and North Korea
Chief/architect of Iran’s ballistic missile programme; top commander
Killed in an explosion at a Revolutionary Guard depot, off Tehran
Explosion killed 16 others; so powerful that it rattled windows 30 miles away in Tehran
Funeral attended by the Supreme Leader (Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)
Mossad widely suspected to be behind the attacks
Plot to kill Saudi ambassador to Washington = possible retaliation for assassination of Iranian scientists; more reprisals expected

35
Q

9 – November 2011

Explosions near facilities, Isfahan

A

28/11/2011: explosions heard in Isfahan, home to Iran’s uranium conversion facility (UCF) which operates under IAEA surveillance
Times: blast damaged key nuclear facility / storage of raw materials
Isfahan: went into operation in 2004; takes uranium from mines and produces uranium fluoride gas, which then feeds the centrifuges that enrich the uranium

36
Q

10 – December 2011

Explosion at steel plant, Yazd

A

11/12/2011: explosion and subsequent fire at the Ghadir Steel Smelter in Yazd (factory)
Plant suspected to house covert and underground nuclear facilities
Uranium mine located nearby
Seven people killed including visitors from North Korea

37
Q

11 - January 2012

Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan, Tehran

A

Chemistry expert specialising in producing polymeric membranes for gaseous diffusion (part of the uranium enrichment process)
Killed in a bomb blast (magnetic bombs attached to his car)
Deputy director of commercial affairs at the Natanz uranium enrichment facility
Three days later, Iran sends diplomatic message to US (via the Swiss embassy in Tehran) re having evidence of CIA involvement
Wife: “Mostafa’s ultimate goal was the annihilation of Israel”

38
Q

When did the Iranians ‘confess’ to nuclear scientist murders on state television?

A

5 August 2012: group of 13 Iranian nationals (8 men, 5 women) presented as the group responsible for the assassinations of nuclear scientists
Suspects re-enacted assassinations across Tehran
Claim to have received training in camp near Tel Aviv (Israel)
Claimed that control room was in Tel Aviv (Mossad) but receiving orders from London (MI6) and Washington (CIA)
Confessions may have been the result of coercion / torture

39
Q

What is the Cold war in the middle east?

A

Israeli intelligence service (Mossad) – 1,500 active agents
v.
“Coalition”:
- Palestinian Hamas (Sunni)
- Lebanese Hezbollah (Shia / Shiite)
- Syrian secret services (Shia / Shiite)
- Iranian secret services (Shia / Shiite)
Using GPS, cameras, bugs, digital networks, car bombs, poisons, hi-tech weapons
Car dealers, prostitutes, merchants, intermediaries etc.
+ Al Qaeda (Sunni)
+ ISIS (ISIL/Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) (Salafist)

Lecture 3 (2 decks)

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