Introduction To Commodities & Commodity Derivatives Flashcards
What are 4 tools & considerations when doing fundamental research of commodities?
- direct announcement: announcements from government or news regarding commodities (eg. Production & inventory levels)
- component analysis: breaking down high level supply & demand into components (eg. lower emissions law by government will increase electric car production)
- timing considerations: timing of production & money (eg. you can only grow certain crops in certain seasons)
- money flow: prices can be affected by sentiment and macro conditions (eg. If investor risk tolerance is particularly high or low than you can expect exaggerated price movements)
What are the 6 main commodity sectors?
- energy (eg. Oil, gas, coal)
- grains (eg. Wheat, corn, rice)
- industrial/base metals (eg. Copper, iron, aluminum)
- livestock (eg. Sheep, cattle, etc)
- precious metals (eg. Gold, silver, platinum)
- soft (aka cash crop) (eg. Cotton, sugar, cocoa)
What is the difference between hard commodities and soft commodities?
- Hard commodities: are mined or extracted
- Soft commodities: grown over period of time
What is the difference between crude oil and natural gas?
- crude oil needs to be refined into gas and natural gas can be used right away after extraction
What is the cost of the energy sector?
- very expensive: creating pipelines, setting up a extraction base, and exploration for oil
Why is it hard for producers of industrials/ precious metals to cut back on production when supply is greater than demand or increase production when demand is greater than supply?
- due to the marginal costs they need to maintain consistent production levels to make a profit (costs to set up and use equipment is expensive)
What is one risk of the livestock commodity sector and what is the life cycle of livestock?
- high risk of spoilage
- life cycle: various based on animal (eg. Hogs take a couple months, whereas cattle take a couple years)
For the grain commodity sector what are the 4 steps to plants maturing?
- Planting (seeds in ground)
- Growth
- Pod/Ear/Head Formation (food grain created by plant)
- Harvest (collection of grain by farmer)
How long does it take for corn, soybean, and wheat to grow?
- corn: 8 months
- soybean: 6 months
- wheat: 11 months
Where is grain stored and why are they stored?
- stored in silos or warehouses
- stored since demand for grains is year round
What is the difference between equities/bonds and commodities?
- equities/bonds: financial assets
- commodities: physical assets usually (exception would be electricity)
What is the difference in valuation of stocks/bonds vs commodities?
- stock/bonds: valuation focuses on discounted cash flows
- commodities: valuation focuses on future supply and demand
What are the 3 types of trading participants for commodities?
- informed investors/hedgers
- speculators
- arbitrageurs.
Which commodity traders provide insurance to hedgers of commodities?
- liquidity providers
Liquidity providers often play the role of providing an insurance service to hedgers who need to unload and transfer price risk by entering into futures contracts.
What’s the difference between the spot price and the future price?
- spot price: current price/cost for immediate purchase and delivery.
- futures price: locks in the cost of the commodity that will be delivered at some time in the future