Introduction To Commodities & Commodity Derivatives Flashcards

1
Q

What are 4 tools & considerations when doing fundamental research of commodities?

A
  • direct announcement: announcements from government or news regarding commodities (eg. Production & inventory levels)
  • component analysis: breaking down high level supply & demand into components (eg. lower emissions law by government will increase electric car production)
  • timing considerations: timing of production & money (eg. you can only grow certain crops in certain seasons)
  • money flow: prices can be affected by sentiment and macro conditions (eg. If investor risk tolerance is particularly high or low than you can expect exaggerated price movements)
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2
Q

What are the 6 main commodity sectors?

A
  • energy (eg. Oil, gas, coal)
  • grains (eg. Wheat, corn, rice)
  • industrial/base metals (eg. Copper, iron, aluminum)
  • livestock (eg. Sheep, cattle, etc)
  • precious metals (eg. Gold, silver, platinum)
  • soft (aka cash crop) (eg. Cotton, sugar, cocoa)
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3
Q

What is the difference between hard commodities and soft commodities?

A
  • Hard commodities: are mined or extracted
  • Soft commodities: grown over period of time
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4
Q

What is the difference between crude oil and natural gas?

A
  • crude oil needs to be refined into gas and natural gas can be used right away after extraction
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5
Q

What is the cost of the energy sector?

A
  • very expensive: creating pipelines, setting up a extraction base, and exploration for oil
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6
Q

Why is it hard for producers of industrials/ precious metals to cut back on production when supply is greater than demand or increase production when demand is greater than supply?

A
  • due to the marginal costs they need to maintain consistent production levels to make a profit (costs to set up and use equipment is expensive)
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7
Q

What is one risk of the livestock commodity sector and what is the life cycle of livestock?

A
  • high risk of spoilage
  • life cycle: various based on animal (eg. Hogs take a couple months, whereas cattle take a couple years)
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8
Q

For the grain commodity sector what are the 4 steps to plants maturing?

A
  1. Planting (seeds in ground)
  2. Growth
  3. Pod/Ear/Head Formation (food grain created by plant)
  4. Harvest (collection of grain by farmer)
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9
Q

How long does it take for corn, soybean, and wheat to grow?

A
  • corn: 8 months
  • soybean: 6 months
  • wheat: 11 months
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10
Q

Where is grain stored and why are they stored?

A
  • stored in silos or warehouses
  • stored since demand for grains is year round
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11
Q

What is the difference between equities/bonds and commodities?

A
  • equities/bonds: financial assets
  • commodities: physical assets usually (exception would be electricity)
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12
Q

What is the difference in valuation of stocks/bonds vs commodities?

A
  • stock/bonds: valuation focuses on discounted cash flows
  • commodities: valuation focuses on future supply and demand
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13
Q

What are the 3 types of trading participants for commodities?

A
  • informed investors/hedgers
  • speculators
  • arbitrageurs.
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14
Q

Which commodity traders provide insurance to hedgers of commodities?

A
  • liquidity providers

Liquidity providers often play the role of providing an insurance service to hedgers who need to unload and transfer price risk by entering into futures contracts.

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15
Q

What’s the difference between the spot price and the future price?

A
  • spot price: current price/cost for immediate purchase and delivery.
  • futures price: locks in the cost of the commodity that will be delivered at some time in the future
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16
Q

What’s the difference between forward and future contract?

A
  • forward contract: private, customizable agreement that settles at the end of the agreement and is traded over the counter (OTC).
  • futures contract: is standardized and trades on an exchange, where prices are settled daily until the end of the contract.
17
Q

What is the difference between future price and spot price called?

A
  • the basis
18
Q

What’s the difference between contango and backwardation?

A
  • contango: spot price is lower than future price
  • backwardation: spot price is higher than future price
19
Q

What is calendar spread, what’s the difference between negative & positive calendar spread, what the calendar spread formula, and how does calendar spread affect contango and backwardation?

A
  • the difference between the spot price and future price
  • positive calendar spread: spot price > future price (backwardation)
  • negative calendar spread: spot price < future price (contango)

calendar spread: spot price - future price

20
Q

What are 2 ways commodity futures are settled?

A
  • cash or physical delivery
21
Q

Why do spot prices vary from region to region?

A
  • due to logistical constraints and supply and demand imbalances
22
Q

What are the 3 primary theories of futures returns?

A
  • insurance theory
  • hedging pressure theory
  • theory of storage
23
Q

What are the 3 primary theories of futures returns?

A
  • insurance theory: producers of a commodity would prefer to accept a discount on the potential future spot price in return for the certainty of knowing the future selling price in advance
  • hedging pressure theory: both producers and consumers seek to protect themselves from commodity market price volatility which create the price curve
  • theory of storage: level of commodity inventories influences commodity price and price curve
24
Q

What is the formula for theory of storage futures prices? How is the convenience yield impacted by the supply?

A

Futures prices = spot price of physical commodity + direct storage costs (eg. Rent & insurance) - convenience yield

  • convenience yield increases when supply of commodity is scarce
  • convenience yield decreases when supply of commodity is not scarce
25
Q

What 3 components is total return on commodity futures broken up into, describe them. What is the formula for total return on commodity futures?

A
  • price return (spot yield) (change in commodity future prices)
  • roll return (roll yield) (when investors sell future contract close to expiring and purchase the next contract)
  • collateral return (collateral yield) (yield on securities that the investor deposits as collateral to establish future position) (aka interest on margin you put up for collateral)

Total return = price return + roll return + collateral return

26
Q

What is the formula for the 3 components total return on commodity futures are broken up into?

A
  • price return = (current price- previous price) / (previous price)
  • roll return = ( (near term futures contract closing price - farther term futures contract closing price) / (near term futures contract closing price) = gross roll return (gross roll return * Percentage of the position in the futures contract being rolled) )
  • collateral return = risk free rate
27
Q

What is a commodity swap?

A
  • commodity swap: legal contract between two parties calling for the exchange of payments over multiple dates as determined by several reference prices or indexes
28
Q

What are the 4 most relevant types of commodity swaps?

A
  • excess return swaps
  • total return swaps
  • basis swaps
  • variance/ volatility swaps
29
Q

Describe the 4 most relevant types of commodity swaps?

A
  • excess return swaps: producer pays premium and if price goes higher than reference point they receive a payment in the amount of the excess above reference point
  • total return swaps: each party pays depending on performance. If return is 1% short party pays long party 1%, if return is -10% long party pays short party -10%
  • basis swaps: periodic payments worth the difference between similar highly liquid and not highly liquid commodities (eg. payment for difference in Soybean contract and physical soybeans)
  • variance/ volatility swaps: exchange periodic payments based on volatility or variance (eg. if variance positive buy of variance receives payment if variance is negative seller of variance receives payment)