Introduction To Commodities & Commodity Derivatives Flashcards
What are 4 tools & considerations when doing fundamental research of commodities? DCTM
- direct announcement: announcements from government or news regarding commodities (eg. Production & inventory levels)
- component analysis: breaking down high level supply & demand into components (eg. lower emissions law by government will increase electric car production)
- timing considerations: timing of production & money (eg. you can only grow certain crops in certain seasons)
- money flow: prices can be affected by sentiment and macro conditions (eg. If investor risk tolerance is particularly high or low than you can expect exaggerated price movements)
What are the 6 main commodity sectors? EGILPS
- energy (eg. Oil, gas, coal)
- grains (eg. Wheat, corn, rice)
- industrial/base metals (eg. Copper, iron, aluminum)
- livestock (eg. Sheep, cattle, etc)
- precious metals (eg. Gold, silver, platinum)
- soft (aka cash crop) (eg. Cotton, sugar, cocoa)
What is the difference between hard commodities and soft commodities?
- Hard commodities: are mined or extracted
- Soft commodities: grown over period of time
What is the difference between crude oil and natural gas?
- crude oil needs to be refined into gas and natural gas can be used right away after extraction
What is the cost of the energy sector?
- very expensive: creating pipelines, setting up a extraction base, and exploration for oil
Why is it hard for producers of industrials/ precious metals to cut back on production when supply is greater than demand or increase production when demand is greater than supply?
- due to the marginal costs they need to maintain consistent production levels to make a profit (costs to set up and use equipment is expensive)
What is one risk of the livestock commodity sector and what is the life cycle of livestock?
- high risk of spoilage
- life cycle: various based on animal (eg. Hogs take a couple months, whereas cattle take a couple years)
For the grain commodity sector what are the 4 steps to plants maturing?
- Planting (seeds in ground)
- Growth
- Pod/Ear/Head Formation (food grain created by plant)
- Harvest (collection of grain by farmer)
How long does it take for corn, soybean, and wheat to grow?
- corn: 8 months
- soybean: 6 months
- wheat: 11 months
Where is grain stored and why are they stored?
- stored in silos or warehouses
- stored since demand for grains is year round
What is the difference between equities/bonds and commodities?
- equities/bonds: financial assets
- commodities: physical assets usually (exception would be electricity)
What is the difference in valuation of stocks/bonds vs commodities?
- stock/bonds: valuation focuses on discounted cash flows
- commodities: valuation focuses on future supply and demand
What are the 3 types of trading participants for commodities? ILA
- informed investors (include hedgers and speculators)
- liquidity providers
- arbitrageurs.
Which commodity traders provide insurance to hedgers of commodities?
- liquidity providers
Liquidity providers often play the role of providing an insurance service to hedgers who need to unload and transfer price risk by entering into futures contracts.
What’s the difference between the spot price and the future price?
- spot price: current price/cost for immediate purchase and delivery.
- futures price: locks in the cost of the commodity that will be delivered at some time in the future
What’s the difference between forward and future contract?
- forward contract: private, customizable agreement that settles at the end of the agreement and is traded over the counter (OTC).
- futures contract: is standardized and trades on an exchange, where prices are settled daily until the end of the contract.
What is the difference between the spot price and the near term futures price?
- the basis
the basis = spot price - near term futures price
What’s the difference between contango and backwardation?
- contango: spot price is lower than future price. future price>spot price
- backwardation: spot price is higher than future price. spot price>future price
What is calendar spread, what’s the difference between negative & positive calendar spread, what the calendar spread formula, and how does calendar spread affect contango and backwardation?
- the difference between the near term futures contract and the longer term futures contract price
- positive calendar spread: near term futures contract > long term future price (backwardation)
- negative calendar spread: near term futures contract < long term future price (contango)
calendar spread: near term futures contract - longer term futures contract price
What are 2 ways commodity futures are settled?
- cash or physical delivery
Why do spot prices vary from region to region?
- due to logistical constraints and supply and demand imbalances
What are the 3 primary theories of futures returns? IHT
- insurance theory
- hedging pressure theory
- theory of storage
What are the 3 primary theories of futures returns?
- insurance theory (aka normal backwardation): producers of a commodity use futures market to hedge future revenue. producers must give discount to entice speculators to take long position in contract.
- hedging pressure theory: both producers and consumers seek to protect themselves from commodity market price volatility which create the price curve
- theory of storage: level of commodity inventories influences commodity price and price curve
What is the formula for theory of storage futures prices? How is the convenience yield impacted by the supply?
Futures prices = spot price of physical commodity + direct storage costs (eg. Rent & insurance) - convenience yield
- convenience yield increases when supply of commodity is scarce
- convenience yield decreases when supply of commodity is not scarce
What 3 components is total return on commodity futures broken up into, describe them. What is the formula for total return on commodity futures?
- price return (spot yield) (change in commodity future prices)
- roll return (roll yield) (when investors sell future contract close to expiring and purchase the next contract)
- collateral return (collateral yield) (yield on securities that the investor deposits as collateral to establish future position) (aka interest on margin you put up for collateral)
Total return = price return + roll return + collateral return
What is the formula for the 3 components total return on commodity futures are broken up into?
- price return = (current price- previous price) / (previous price)
- roll return = (near term futures contract closing price - farther/long term futures contract closing price) / (near term futures contract closing price)
- collateral return = risk free rate or annual rate * length of time of yield
What is a commodity swap?
- commodity swap: legal contract between two parties calling for the exchange of payments over multiple dates as determined by several reference prices or indexes
What are the 4 most relevant types of commodity swaps?
- excess return swaps
- total return swaps
- basis swaps
- variance/ volatility swaps
Describe the 4 most relevant types of commodity swaps?
- excess return swaps: buyer pays premium and if spot price goes higher than specified price in contract they receive a payment in the amount of the excess above the specified price
- total return swaps: Buyer receives a payment or makes a payment based on the total return in an index. (If return is 1% short party pays long party 1%, if return is -10% long party pays short party -10%)
- basis swaps: periodic payments exchanged based on values of two related commodity reference points (eg. payment for difference in Soybean contract and physical soybeans)
- variance/ volatility swaps: exchange periodic payments based on volatility or variance (buyer receives payment when variance or volatility is greater than expected)
What are 2 public exchanges futures contracts are exchanged on?
- Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
- Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)
Why are commodity markets net zero in terms of aggregate futures positions?
For every long position, there is a counterparty taking an offsetting short position.
Why do you get a higher rollover yield in a backwardation state vs a contango state?
- with prices going down in backwardation you pay a lower price to rollover contracts vs in contango when prices go upward you pay a higher price to rollover contracts.
