Introduction risk assessment

Question 1

Define risk assessment.

Answer 1

1. probability that a harmful event or behaviour will occur, who it involves, the frequency and its impact.
2. attempt to predict the likelihood of future offending to identify who needs intervention.

Risk assessment must specify the behaviour, potential damage, the probability that it will occur and the circumstances under which it will occur.

Question 2

Explain the relevance of protective factors.

Answer 2

Strengthening protective factors can have a buffering effect.

• Protective factors can interact with risk factors.
• Including protective factors improves predictive accuracy.
• Improvement of protective factors has a strong effect on recidivism rates.

Question 3

Name all variants of risk factors.

Answer 3

Static risk factors, dynamic risk factors, stable dynamic risk factors and acute dynamic risk factors.
Protective factors can interact with all of these.

Question 4

Explain the Area Under the Curve (AUC).

Answer 4

AUC is derived from the Received Operated Characteristics (ROC). This graph illustrates diagnostic ability.

• Plots sensitivity against specificity.
• Tells us how an instruments differentiates between recidivists and non-recidivists.

Question 5

Explain the DRAOR (dynamic risk assessment for offender re-entry).

Answer 5

It looks at recidivism in the community. It informs case planning and risk management.

• Consists of stable, acute and protective factors.
• Predicts reconvictions, reimprisonment, breaches of parole.

Question 6

Explain the cause-effect hypothesis.

Answer 6

1. evidence association between risk factors and outcomes.
2. causal relationship in opposite direction.
3. cause is different from a consequences.
4. intercorrelated factors for an observed relation.
5. explain mechanism between A and B.

Question 7

Explain the first generation of risk assessment.

Answer 7

Unstructured professional judgement.

• it’s inexpensive, flexible, convenient, broadly accepted and not training needed.
• it lacks consistency, transparency, bias, no training needed, scoring integrity, equal to chance, poor reliability and validity.

Question 8

Explain the second generation of risk assessment.

Answer 8

Actuarial assessment.

• transparent, objective, predictive validity, interrater reliability, time effective, replicable.
• atheoretical, unchangeable, limited identification treatment targets, limited integration intervention, no protective factors and no clinical override.

Question 9

Explain the third generation of risk assessment.

Answer 9

Structured professional judgement.

• transparent, changeable, reliable, predictive validity, identifies treatment goals, context dependent, multi-dimentional and risk formulation.
• time consuming, repeated measurement and limited integration of intervention.

Question 10

Explain the fourth generation of risk assessment.

Answer 10

Structured professional judgement.

• transparent, changeable, theoretically sound, allows clinical judgement and incorporates interventions.
• time consuming, repeated measurement, training and expertise.