International Relations Flashcards
INDIA USA 2+2 TALKS
Major outcomes of the talk
1. Signing of COMCASA Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement Indian version of CIMOA (Communication and Information on Security Memorandum of Agreement)
2. Setting up of a hotline between External Affairs Minister and Defence Minister with their American counterparts
3. Tri-service exercise
4. Deepening of maritime cooperation in Western Indian Ocean:
# the ministers committed to start an exchange between the US Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT) and the Indian Navy
5. Promoting defence innovation:
# U.S. Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) and the Indian Defence Innovation Organization — Innovation for Defence Excellence (DIO-iDEX) - co-production and co-development projects through the Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI)
6. Negotiations on Industrial Security Annex (ISA)
significance
1. India will get access to Combined Enterprise Regional Information Exchange System (CENTRIXS)
Concerns
- Allow U.S. Navy access to India’s own secure communication network
- US may manipulate critical decision making
Way Forward 1. India had signed the # General Security Of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) in 2002 # Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) in 2016 last one remaining is the #Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geo-spatial Cooperation (BECA) # signing which would complete the four foundational agreements that US have with its closest allies 2. Talks are ongoing on granting waiver for India from US sanctions on Russia and Iran as it was said that USA doesn’t intend to penalise great strategic partners like India. A waiver provision has now been introduced to cover India, Indonesia and Vietnam.
INDIA MYANMAR RELATIONS
India and Myanmar opened two land border crossings through a Land Border Crossing Agreement
- Moreh in Manipur, opposite Tamu in Myanmar’s Sagaing division
- Zokhawthar in Mizoram, opposite Rihkhawdar in Myanmar’s Chin state.
Significance
- Improved Connectivity
- Support India’s involvement in Myanmar over China’s increasing influence
- Push to Tourism
- Sign of improvement in relations
Concerns
- Big connectivity programs not completed
- Illegal immigrants and insurgents
Other connectivity projects through Myanmar
1. IMT Trilateral Highway
a regional highway being constructed under India’s Act East policy
# connect Moreh in India with Mae Sot, Thailand via Myanmar.
2. Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project
Project connect
# the eastern Indian seaport of Kolkata with Sittwe seaport in Rakhine State, Myanmar by sea
#In Myanmar, it will then link Sittwe seaport to Paletwa, Chin State via the Kaladan river boat route
#Paletwa by road to Mizoram state in Northeast India.
BIMSTEC SUMMIT
4th summit of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) was held in Nepal
About 4th summit
- Drafting a charter for BIMSTEC - working on the basis of Bangkok Declaration of 1997
- Setting up of a Permanent Working Committee
- Secretariat - additional financial and Human Resource’s
- BIMSTEC Development Fund - voluntary contributions from Member States
- New strategy of 5 pillars (Thailand) - connectivity, trade and investment, people-to-people contacts, security, and science and technology
Significance
1. 22% of the world’s population - a combined GDP close to $2.7 trillion - 1/4 of the world’s traded goods cross the bay every year
connector to multiple regional initiatives
# Bangladesh - position itself more than a small state
# Sri Lanka - connect to Southeast Asia
# Nepal and Bhutan - connectivity - escape landlocked geographical position
# Myanmar and Thailand- connectivity & balance Beijing (massive inroads to Southeast Asia)
# India
1. In line with ‘Neighbourhood First’ and ‘Act East’
2. Stagnation of SAARC
3. Counter Chinese investments
4. Preserve freedom of navigation
5. Bay of Bengal Zone of Peace
6. slow pace of growth
7. Terrorism
8. Maritime Security Issues
# 2015 Rohingya refugee crisis
# severe natural disasters, incidents of sea piracy, and illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing
# CORPAT exercises, Milan exercises, and the ‘IO-5’ grouping - maritime security cooperation does not include costal Bay states
Challenges
- BIMSTEC Free Trade Agreement - 2004 - present level of 7% to 21% is yet to be finalized
- India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway - yet to be completed
- least integrated parts of the world
- Lack of consistency in the Summit
Achievements of BIMSTEC
- BIMSTEC Coastal Shipping Agreement
- BIMSTEC Motor Vehicle Agreement (MVA)
- completed negotiations for the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on the establishment of the BIMSTEC Grid Interconnection
- BIMSTEC Agreement on Mutual Assistance on Customs Matters has been signed
- Secretariat has been established at Dhaka
Way forward
- expanding its membership to Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore - the three major Asian powers
- BIMSTEC cross-border e-commerce and digital connectivity
- More socio-cultural interactions
- regulatory harmonisation
- Strengthen IPR cooperation
- link India’s Northeast with Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand
- forging tie-ups with other multilateral organizations
INDIAN OCEAN CONFERENCE
3rd edition of Indian Ocean Conference on August 27 at Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam
Theme - Building Regional Architectures
# India Foundation along with its partners from Singapore, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh
Significance of Indian Ocean
1. Sea lanes - Indian Ocean - most strategically important in the world
# more than 80 percent of the world’s seaborne trade in oil transits through Indian Ocean choke points
# 95 per cent of India’s trade by volume and 68 per cent of trade by value come via the Indian Ocean.
2. Strategic development
# competing rises of China and India
# potential nuclear confrontation between India and Pakistan
# the US interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan
# Islamist terrorism
# growing incidence of piracy in and around the Horn of Africa,
# management of diminishing fishery resources
3. rich in energy resources
# minerals - gold, tin, uranium, cobalt, nickel, aluminium and cadmium
#abundant fishing resources
4. securing the free passage of trade and energy
5. ensuring the sustainable and equitable exploitation of fishing and mineral resources
6. managing humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.
ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK- STRATEGY 2030
About Asian Development Bank (ADB) # ADB was founded in 1966 # 67-member countries, including —48 from the Asian region # led conventionally by a Japanese governor # Top 5 shareholders in ADB are: Japan (15.6%), United States (15.6%), People's Republic of China (6.4%), India (6.3%) and Australia (5.8%) # provides direct assistance to private enterprises of developing member countries through equity investments and loans.
About ADB Strategy 2030
- Social dimension (emphasis on human and social factors + usual infrastructure and the private sector)
- Regional or Country Specific Approach
- One ADB Approach
Priority Areas of Strategy 2030
- Addressing remaining poverty (non-income dimension)and reducing Inequalities
- Gender equality
- Climate change
- Making cities more liveable
- Promoting rural development and food security
- Strengthening governance and institutional capacity
- Fostering regional cooperation and integration
India and ADB # founding member and 4th largest shareholder country partnership strategy (CPS) 2018-2022 - 3 pillars
Pillar 1 : boost economic competitiveness
Pillar 2 : access to infrastructure networks and social services
Pillar 3 : address environmental degradation
UN DEVELOPMENT SYSTEM
UN General Assembly (UNGA) has adopted - repositioning process began with an ECOSOC dialogue series in 2014-2015 to align to 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development # UN Development Assistance Frameworks (UNDAFs) to better reflect country priorities # Resident Coordinators (RCs) of each country - separate from resident representative of the UN Development Programme (UNDP) # transformation of the Development Operations Coordination Office (DOCO) as a stand-alone coordination office # hybrid funding - United Nations regular budget + voluntary contributions by UN Member states # national ownership with strong focus on accountability and results
COMPREHENSIVE NUCLEAR TEST BAN TREATY
multilateral treaty banning all nuclear explosions for both military and civilian purposes negotiated at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva and adopted by the United Nations General Assembly. It was opened for signature on 24 September 1996 # 183 signatories and 163 ratifications is one of the most widely supported arms-control treaties # not ratified by China, Egypt, India, Iran, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan and the United States # North Korea, has broken the norms, - repeated imposition of sanctions. # CTBT Organization (CTBTO), located in Vienna, to ensure the implementation of its provisions, including provisions for international verification measures
Importance
- nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation regime
- brake on the nuclear arms race and serves as a barrier against States
- catastrophic impact on the environment, human health, food security and economic development
- legally binding norm against nuclear testing
India’s Stand on CTBT
- Complete Nuclear Disarmament
- Entry into force clause
- Discriminatory in Nature
- Technological differences - sub-critical and laboratory simulated testing which is not banned under CTBT
- Security threat
India’s stand on other treaties
1. Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) 1968:
* objective is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology
* promote cooperation - peaceful uses of nuclear energy
India - non-signatory - remains “committed” to a unilateral voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing
2. Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons 2017:
* 1st legally binding international agreement
* India non participant in negotiations
* India maintains the Geneva-based Conference on Disarmament (CD) as a single multilateral disarmament negotiation forum
3. Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zones (NWFZ)
* regional approach to strengthen global nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament
4. 1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty
* India participant
* treaty significantly reduced global levels of fallout - could not limit nuclear arms race
MALDIVES ELECTIONS
unexpected victory of the Maldives opposition leader Ibrahim Mohamed Solih
Ended - President Abdulla Gayoom Yameen’s five-year controversial tenure
1. withdrawing from the Commonwealth
2. conspicuously courting China
3. weakening traditional ties with India
- cancelling Indian company GMR’s contract to modernise Male airport,
- rejecting visa renewals of Indians working in the Maldives
- declining to participate in joint naval exercises earlier this year.
4. Allowed Chinese ‘land grab’ of Maldivian islands, key infrastructure, and even essential utilities - undermined the independence of the Maldives and security of the entire Indian Ocean region.
Why Maldives election were important? * Political Crisis
* Chinese Support - pro-India approach to a pro-China policy
Importance of Maldives for India
- Strategically located - lies next to key shipping lanes which ensure uninterrupted energy supplies to countries like China, Japan and India.
- India’s role as South Asian power and a ‘net security provider’ in the Indian Ocean region - needs to cooperate with Maldives in security and defence sectors
- India was among the first to recognise Maldives after its independence in 1965 and to establish diplomatic relations with the country.
- Indians are the second largest expatriate community in the Maldives with approximate strength of around 26,000. Indian expatriate community consists of workers as well as professionals
- Indian Army’s ‘Operation Cactus’ foiled a coup in Maldives that was attempted by a pro-Eelam group in 1988
- India maintains a naval presence in Maldives, at the request of the Maldives, since 2009.
WORLD TRADE ORGANISATION
WTO and its evolution
- set up under Marrakesh Treaty (1994) as a result of Uruguay Round (1986-1994)
- Organizational Structure of WTO
• Ministerial Conference -
Includes all members, meets once in 2 year - 11th Ministerial Conference was held in Argentina
• General Council –
Dispute Settlement Body and Trade Policy Review Body - Basic principles of trade liberalizations that were to be followed were
- Non-discrimination
- Reciprocity
- consensus-based decisions based on ‘one country one vote which demonstrates democratic structure and processes of WTO
Reasons for Crumbling Of WTO
1. Changing world order
China via trade war, Solar panel case against India in Dispute Settlement Body
2. Process Loopholes
3. Nature of agreements
4. Dispute Resolution
solar panel dispute was adjudged in favor of US
Why WTO Should Survive?
- role played in integrating and opening the world trade
- regulates 98% of global trade flows - average value of tariffs has reduced by 85% since 1942
- Trade as a share of GDP has grown from 24% in 1960 to 60% in 2015
- rules-based system—notably under the GATT and WTO
- Trade important for inclusive Growth, by lowering poverty
- nations’ economies inter-dependent - breakdown of WTO affect international trade order
Way Forward
WTO should reflect the Global structural change
1. Plurilateral trade negotiations
2. Trade agreements regarding e- commerce
3. Services
4. Trade related policies for inclusiveness
5. Collective Bargain
6. Change in the mindset of developed countries
UNREALIZED POTENTIAL OF SOUTH ASIAN TRADE
World bank report
A Glass Half Full: The Promise of Regional Trade in South Asia
Trends in trade in South Asia
- Intra-regional trade - accounts for a little more than 5 percent of South Asia’s total trade
- Intra-regional trade part of regional GDP - large economies of South Asia just have only 1% of its trade as GDP
- Trade Restrictiveness - trade restrictiveness index is 2 to 9 times higher for imports from South Asia than rest of the world
- Disproportionate cost of trade - South Asian regional trading cost is 20% higher than ASEAN
Causes of Skewed Trend
- Non-functional SAFTA
* para tariffs
* sensitive list - Non-Tariff Measures
- Lack of Border infrastructure and procedural delays
- Poor Regional Connectivity
- Lack of normal trade between India and Pakistan - trade potential is of $37 billion which today stands at $2 billion only
- Trust Deficit
What needs to be done?
- Restructuring of SAFTA
- Non-Tariff Barrier reduction
- Enhance Regional Connectivity
- Building Trust
Benefits of enhanced trade
- Socio economic conditions
- Gains to various stakeholders
- Increased Access to landlocked countries and sub regions
India -Pakistan trade relations- A recipe for peace
Current Status-Slow progress in trade with declining trend-
1. trade increased by 3.5 times between 2000-2005
* fell in 2017 to $2.40 billion from $2.70 billion in 2013-2014
2. minimal increase in Indian exports after Pakistan’s change in import policy in 2012
3. rampant illegal trade routed through West Asia and Nepal
4. Indirect trade via UAE is 10 times the normal bilateral trade
Required Changes
- Development of Regional Value chains in textile, pharma and sports goods. Develop links between textile hubs i.e. Lahore and Surat etc
- Normalization of trading relations i.e. Non-discriminatory in nature thereby complying with the WTO rules
- Narrowing the sensitive list on both sides and reducing non-tariff barriers
- Business level dialogue
* building social capital in trading community
* develop business to business linkages through national chambers
* implementing SAARC visa regime
EARLY-HARVEST PACKAGE FOR RCEP
Background
- forged during the 2012 ASEAN summit in Cambodia - to promote economic development - resulted in stalemate
- trade ministers of 16 RCEP members met in Singapore on 30th August 2018 to review the progress of negotiations
# RCEP is billed as an FTA between the 10-member ASEAN bloc and its six FTA partners— India, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand # RCEP will create the largest regional trading bloc, making up 25% of GDP, 30% of global trade, and 26% of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows
Guiding principles
* negotiations on trade in goods, trade in services, investment and other areas will be conducted in parallel to ensure a comprehensive and balanced outcome.
RCEP negotiations
- broad package of deliverables to agreed upon by year end
- countries to Eddie duty cuts of each other basis bilateral paring
Talks concluded on
- Economic technical cooperation
- SMEs
- Trade facilitation
- Government procurement
India makes a point
- India secures flexibility in goods services investment
- Members commit toastier movement off product in bloc
- Proposed arbit norms any exclude certain sectors
Other developments
- Agreed on India’s demand to give tariff concessions to other partners except Chine over 20 yr period
- India has no FTAs with Chine New Zealand Australia- talks held on bilateral paring mechanism - to include binding commitments for easier movement of professionals - MODE 4 in trade parlance
Potential gains for India from joining RCEP
- Benefits related to exports
- FDI gains - boost to inward and outward foreign direct investment, particularly export-oriented FDI
- Connection with global value chain
- Better engagements
Potential Challenges for India from RCEP
- India’s trade deficit
- Threat from Chinese products
- Costly legal suits
- Issue of strict IPR regime
Way forward
- focus on skilling its manpower - demographic advantage
- second-generation reforms of its domestic economic policies
* reform its factor markets - ensure the economic viability of small farmers and industries
- strategic pitfalls of slowing down India’s RCEP engagement
* giving China further space in the regional trade and security architecture
RUSSIA AND CHINA RELATIONS
Russia and China are conducting Russian military exercise Vostok 2018 along with Mongolia in Russia’s Far East and Pacific Ocean
Why this exercise- Context
- US hegemony
- Changing Geopolitical order
What is aimed to be achieved?
- Russia’s interests
- China’s Stake
Effect on India Russia relation
What should India Do?
- Developing strong Economic Partnership
- Limitation of Russia-China relation
- Common interests of the trio
