International Finance Flashcards
What is a foreign exchange rate?
the rate at which one currency can be exchanged for another one. Exchange rates can be quoted either directly (units of foreign in terms of domestic) or indirectly (units of domestic expressed in terms of foreign)
what are devaluations and revaluations?
devaluations and revaluations are INTENTIONAL manipulations of domestic currency by central banks. This practice is used to to raise exports by reducing the home goods relative price for foreigners (devaluations) or raise imports by strengthening home currency (revaluations)
what is the primary objective of exchange rates management?
keeping them stable and predictable
what is the forex market?
the market in which currencies are exchanged. it is a global network of banks, brokers, and forex dealers connected by electronic communications systems.
how do firms utilize the foreign exchange market?
- currency conversion
- currency holding
- currency arbitrage
- currency speculation
- currency hedging
what is the difference between hedging and speculating in the forex market?
hedging: use of currency derivatives to reduce risk of currency movements that could lead to losses
speculating: trade in currencies and derivatives to earn profits
how to hedge against forex risk?
- forwards: say you have predicted a certain demand of x currenct for the future, you can lock in the trade by entering a forward right now. They are commonyl created for 30, 90, 180 days.
- currency swap: pay fix receive floating
- options: the OPTION to exchange a specified amount of currency on a specified date at a specified rate. You need to pay a premium for having the right to choose wether to exercise it or not.
- futures: different from the foward because the contract has standardized terms and is traded on an exchange. prices are also marked to market (settled on a daily basis)
which are the two market views on FX forecasting?
- efficient market view:
if the market is efficient and prices reflect all available info, then forward rates should be unbiased predictors of future spot rates. Companies should thus NOT WASTE MONEY ON FORECASTING SERVICES - it may be worthwile for international businesses to invest in forecasting services. However, track record of forecasting services is not good.
Which two forecasting techniques are you aware of?
Fundamental analysis: using statistical models based on economic indicators to forecast exchange rates
Technical analysis: using charts of past trends
what are some challenges in forex forecasting?
unexpected events
human error
regulatory changes
policy intervention
why do managers need to understand international monetary systems?
speculative buying and selling can create a volatile situation that companies beed to protect themselves against
exchange rates change the direction of investments
what was the gold standard and why did it collapse?
- a system pegging the dollar to gold
- the system reduced exchange rate risk, imposed** STRICT monetary policies **and helped achieveing balance of trade equilibrium
- the system collapsed as countries started printing excessive amounts of paper currency to finance WW1 expenditures
- people lost confidence in the system and demand for gold increased (making it more expensive for countries to print money)
- nations started engaging in competitive devaluations
what was the bretton wood agreement? why did it collapse?
an agreement among nations to create a new international monetary system, aimed to balance strict discipline while still giving the flexibility to manage monetary difficulties
this time:
dollar pegged to gold, other currencies pegged to dollar.
during this time, both the WORLD bank and the IMF were born.
the US were experiencing a trade deficit and a budget deficit due to the vietnam war. huge increases in welfare programs to finance the vietnam war were finance by printing money.
governments lost confidence in us discipline and started to convert usd for gold, this was followed by a major sell off of usd
what was the jamaica agreement?
after the collapse of bretton woods, IMF members got together.
floating rates were declared acceptable: countries could either go for fixed floating systems or free floating systems.
gold was finally abandoned as reserve asset
what is the role of the IMF?
the IMF was originally established to help maintain the exchange rate system that was set at bretton woods. now it deals with:
- currency crisis
from either speculative attacks or government’s mismanagement - banking crisis
- government debt crisis
SOMETIMES THEY ALL HAPPEN SIMULTANEOUSLY: asia, argentina (mostly developing countries)