Initiate data input function Flashcards
Investment timing:
When should you delay an investment?
Delay = If the NPV will go up and other circumstances will remain
Long vs short lived equipment:
EAC?
Steps to making a decision?
EAC = equivalent annual cash flow Steps = 1: calculate NPV on options, 2: calculate EAC on options, 3: calculate PV perpetuity on options
When to replace an old machine?
Steps to making a decision?
Steps = 1: Calculate the EAC of the new machine. 2: formulate timelines for the relevant circumstances including salvage value. 3: calculate the NPV for the available options.
3 critical assumptions of annuity/perpetuity?
We have an annuity payment that started at the end of year x for n years. What do we need to consider in finding the PV?
- The first annuity payment is at the end of the first period
2: There are n payments in the annuity series or infinite number of payments in the perpetuity
3: PV is calculated at year 0
Consider = We need to first find our PV of the annuity at the start of year x and the bring this back a further x-1 years to calculate the pv as at year 0 i.e. (1+i)^-(x-1)
… in the case of a perpetuity x-1 becomes -infinity
Cost of capital?
Opportunity cost of capital?
When should the firm use a higher cost of capital?
Company cost of capital?
Cost of capital = the return investors (equity, debt) require in order to invest (provide capital) i.e. capital (which we need to run our firm) has a cost (the return we must give to our investors) = primarily dependant upon the use of funds, not the source (no dependant upon who gave me the capital, rather how i used it in risky projects)
opportunity cost of capital = the expected return that is forgone by investing in a project rather than in financial securities with the same risk
Use higher cost of capital = when the project is high-risk
Company cost of capital = the opportunity cost of capital for investment in the firm as a whole = defined as the expected return on a portfolio of the firms existing debt and equity securities = percentage of debt multiplied by percentage cost of debt + percentage of equity multiplied by percentage cost of equity
When there is no debt oustanding, what is the company cost of capital?
Why do we incorporate (1-T) into our WACC?
Under CAPM what does Beta tell us?
What does R^2 tell us?
How do we find the range of possible error in the estimated beta?
What determines a stocks total risk?
No debt = cost of capital is just the cost of equity
(1-T) = because interest from paying off debt is infact a tax-deductible expense
Beta tells us = how much on average the stock price changed when the market return was 1% higher or lower
R^2 = measures the proportion of the total variance in the stocks returns that can be explained by market movements i.e. measures market risk
Range of possible error in beta = We need the Beta as well as the standard error and then we simply produce a confidence intervale ( beta - 2 x standard error, beta + 2 x standard error)
Total risk = a small portion is due to movements in the market, the rest is firm-specific, diversifiable unique risk ( 1 - R^2 produces the diversifiable risk)
What determines asset betas?
What does not affect asset betas?
Affect Asset betas = 1: Cyclicality = Cyclical firms, whose revenues and earnings are strongly dependent on the state of the business cycle, tend to be high-beta firms, so high returns will be required. 2: Operating leverage = other things being equal, the alternative with the higher ratio of fixed costs to project value is said to have higher operating leverage and thus higher asset beta. 3: Other sources of risk = A long-term project is more exposed to shifts in the discount rate caused by changes in the risk free rate or the market risk premium and therefore will have a high beta.
Do not affect asset betas = diversifiable risks do not affect asset betas and discount rates
If a firm issues more debt to repay its outstanding equity, what happens to our Betas?
Betas = Our Asset beta remains the same, however the debt beta and equity beta go up. debt beta rise is due to default risk to debtholders increasing (more debt = harder to pay) and the equity beta rise is due to financial risk to shareholders (shareholders may loose money if companies cash flows do not meet expectations of debt)
Allowing for possible bad outcomes:
When allowing for possible bad outcomes what are we doing?
Once we have determined our PV, factoring in bad outcomes, how would we determine the correct discount rate?
What we are doing = we weight each of the possible cash flows by their probability to produce our probability-weighted cash flows. We then add all of these probability weighted cash flows together to produce our PMT. hence using the relevant annuity factor we will be able to find the correct PV which concerns the possibility of bad outcomes too.
Correct discount rate = we would simply equate our calculated PMV to our expected outcome (not our bad outcome, or good outcome, or weighted PMT) divided by (1+r) and then solve for r
Note: we can calculate the fudge factor by subtracting our given discount rate from the correct discount rate.
What is a sensitivity analysis?
What are the benefits (2) ?
What are the drawbacks (2) ?
Sensitivity analysis = recalculating the NPV of a project as each underlying variable is set one at a time at its optimistic or pessimistic value and all other variables are as expected (calculate NPV under expected outcomes, then calculate NPV by only changing one factor at a time)
Benefits = forces the manager to identify the underlying variables and calculate the consequences of misestimating the variables + indicates where additional information would be most useful, and helps to expose inappropriate forecasts
Drawbacks = what exactly optimistic or pessimistic means + underlying variables are likely to be interrelated not independent
What would we use scenario analysis for?
Under break-even analysis, what are the two main considerations that vary between accountancy based break-even and finance based break-even?
Scenario analysis = if we identify that variables are interrelated, we may use scenario analysis to look at different but consistent combinations of variables (whereas sensitivity analysis looks at one variable at a time)
Break-even = Accountancy based break-even analysis fails to consider the opportunity cost of capital or the time value of money
Operating leverage:
Contrast the operating leverage and business risk of a company with high fixed costs vs one with high variable costs?
When calculating DOL, how do we interpret our result?
Contrast = The company with high fixed costs will have higher business risk and higher operating leverage as they will HAVE to produce x amount in order to overcome their large fixed costs.
Note: operating leverage is usually defined in terms of accounting profits rather than cash flows
DOL = The result of our DOL equation, lets say 2.5, would be interpreted as a percentage (2.5%) which indicates what a 1% shortfall in project revenue would do to profits (a 2.5% shortfall in profits)
Monte Carlo simulation
What is it used for?
What are the steps (4)?
Use = a tool for considering all possible combinations of variables and showing the entire distribution of project outcomes
Steps:
1: Give computer equations to specify interdependence between different variables and different periods
2: Specify probabilities of possible forecast errors for each of the variables that determine cash flow
3: Select at random a value from the
distribution of each variable and calculate the net
cash flow for each period, repeat the process
thousand times to get probability distributions of
the project cash flows in each period (which reflect
project risk)
4: Calculate the expected cash flows from the distributions of project cash flows to find their present values
What are real options?
What are our four real options?
What are decision trees useful for?
Real options = companies act upon positive or negative outcomes, if a project is going great then they may expand, etc. Options to modify projects are known as real options
1: Option to expand
2: option to abandon (cut losses)
3: Timing options (to postpone investments)
4: production options (to provide flexibility in production)
Decision trees = help companies determine their
options by showing the timing of sequential
decisions and possible cash flow outcomes
Magna Charter: (decision tree)
What do Squares mark?
What do circles mark?
How do we show probabilities?
How do we show potential cash flows?
Procedure for determening the best option?
When we incorporate multiple real options throughout our decision tree, how do we value of option?
If one of our options produces a negative NPV what do we do?
Squares = decisions/actions
Circles = represent an outcome revealed by the economy/market at the time
probabilities = in parenthesis next to each outcome
cash flows = as an amount directly under each outcome
Procedure = we start with the right most square (decision/action) and figure out the NPV of that decision/actions outcome. We then keep doing this for all squares moving from right to left and factoring in NPV for squares we may have calculated prior
Valuing an option = determine the NPV with and without the real option and subtract the two to produce the value of the real option.
Negative NPV = if an option produces a negative NPV we equate it to zero as we would not consider an option with negative NPV
When an asset has an active market why do we not need to forecast future prices?
What does this mean for NPV calculations?
Dont forecast future prices = because in an active market an asset will be priced equal to the present value of the future price.
NPV calculations = when you have the market price of an asset USE IT! and remember market price is already the PV of the asset and as such does not require discount calculations. However annual costs still require discounting.
What are Economic rents?
Where do positive NPVs stem from?
What does corporate strategy aim to do?
What is the key to investing?
Economic rents = Profits that more than cover the cost of capital i.e. NPV = PV (rents)
Positive NPV = stem from a comparative advantage which may arise from a willingness to pay due to scarcity
Corporate strategy = aims to find and exploit sources of competitive advantage (in the long run, competition eliminates economic rents and no competitors can expand and earn more than the cost of capital on the investment)
Key to investing = determining the competitive advantage of any given company and, above all, the durability of that advantage
Michael porters five aspects of industry structure that determine which industries are able to provide sustained economic rents?
- Rivalry among existing competitors
- likelihood of new competition
- Threat of substitutes
- Bargaining power of suppliers
- Bargaining power of customers
3 ways a firm can secure competitive advantage within its industry?
1: Focus on better products (e.g. iphone)
2: Lower costs (e.g. IKEA)
3: particular market niche (Rolex)
As per our Starbucks case study:
What are seven factors which lead to failure
Failure:
- Failure to adapt product to different market
- Overconfidence in the products point of difference (what makes starbucks unique in america, does not necessarily make it unique in a good way here)
- Rapid expansion without consideration of service quality benchmark levels
- perception of the brand forcing itself onto an unwilling public due to its rapid expansion (grew so fast it felt forced, didnt grow in-line with needs of customers)
- Failure to advertise, as Australian culture is already dominated by coffee houses
- Didnt use franchising and as such the company owned all stores and so had little knowledge of local preference
- Used an unsustainable business model where people could buy 1 coffee and sit for hours
As per our starbucks case study
What are five valueable lessons?
- Crossing international borders is risky, so in-depth research is absolutely vital. Starbucks did not do their homework.
- Think global, but act local. Even well known and well-liked brands must adapt their products for local tastes.
- Establish a differential advantage then strive to sustain it, ensuring your product is unique enough to stand out amongst its competitors, and that it always will.
- Keep sight of what first generated the business’s success. At Starbucks, sales targets destroyed the idea of high-quality service that the brand had been built upon and which was the only competitive advantage it had.
- Consider the viability of the business model. If your model relies on charging a premium price, for instance, ensure the product on offer will be recognised as premium.
How do we calculate competitive prices (equilibrium prices)?
Competitive price = We must equate the NPV to zero to solve for unit price.
Calculating NPV:
Q1: What is the first thing we do (quickly get out of the way)?
Q2: What are the remaining factors we must look at (simply list them)
Q3: How do taxes effect our NPV
Q4: What are the discount rates we use for each component of our NPV model.
Q5: What do we use as n for our annuities:
Q1A: Firstly we subtract the initial investment at T=0
Q2A: Depreciation, revenue and costs
Q3A: 1:Taxes will subtract from the value of our revenue (as we pay some of our revenue to the government). 2: Taxes will decrease our costs at (1-T) (because costs are tax refundable). 3: Taxes will decrease the cost of our initial investment (as we define the cost of our initial investment through depreciation. In essence we break up the investment over x amount of years as depreciation and receive money back just as we would with operating costs (as per above)).
Q4A:
1: Initial investment = no discounting
2: Revenues = at cost of capital rate (unless revenue is determined by a market price)
3: Costs = at cost of capital rate
4: Depreciation = at the after-tax interest rate which is calculated as (1 - T) x nominal interest rate. Note: We also dont need to add depreciation back in if we simply multiply depreciation by T in the first place and not 1-T
Q5A: for our annuity factors n will be economic life, except for depreciation which will be at whatever the applicable straight line life is.
What are the five reasons why top management cannot always bypass middle managers and employees to make investment decisions? (five incentive bypass problems)
How do top managers overcome these problems?
1: Top management must rely on analysis done at lower levels as they themselves analyse many projects every year
2: The details of a capital investment project are beyond the view of executives and top manager cannot afford the time to investigate every alternative
3: Many investments are not in the capital budget, including R&D, worker training, marketing outlays designed to expand a market
4: Operating managers make small decisions every day such as inventory levels; these small decisions add up to large capital outlay
5: Executives are subject to the same kinds of temptations that afflict lower layers of management
Overcome = by ensuring that middle managers and employees have the right incentives to find and invest in positive-NPV projects
List 4 temptations managers on a fixed salary will face (Agency problems in capital budgeting)
Managers on a fixed salary will face various temptatiosn all of the time
- reduced effort - slacking off
- Perks - non-pecuniary rewards
- empire building - reluctant to disinvest
- Entrenching investment - projects that require or reward the skills of existing managers
In regards to Agency problems and risk taking managers are often risk averse, however their are exceptions, list 4?
- Managers must take some risks along the way to reach the top ranks
- Managers compensated with stock options have an incentive to take risk
- Managers sometimes have nothing to lose by taking on risks; gambling for redemption
- Organisations hesitate to curtail risky activities that are delivering, at least temporarily, rich profits
Monitoring of managers efforts is important to reduce agency costs. Who actually does the monitoring (5)?
- Board of directors - ASX requirement of a majority of independent directors
- Auditors - ensure consistency with accepted accounting principles
- Lenders – bank tracks company’s assets and cash flow to protect its loan
- Shareholders – can seek board nomination or sell out
- Rival companies – can take over poorly run businesses
What are management compensation plans used for? (4)
- attracting and retaining competent managers
- Giving managers the right incentives (motivation)
- reducing the need for monitoring
- Encouraging managers to maximise shareholder wealth
Upon analysing the argument that CEO compensation is too generous what are three major concerns? What are two alternative views on high conmpensation
What is the ideal sollution?
- Excessive pay, especially for mediocre performance
- Poor governance
- compensation to bankers who brought the GFC
- Talent is lacking so incentives are required
- arms-length contracting for managerial talent
Ideal solution = incentive contracts to maximise shareholder wealth
Compensation based on:
1. input (managers efforts) (although this is hard to observe)
2. output (income or value added as a result of the managers decisions) (however this can be effected by factors outside the managers control
What are four forms of incentive compensation?
- Bonuses - depend on accounting measures of profitability
- stock options
- restricted stock - stock that must be retained for several years
- performance shares - shares awarded only if the company meets an earnings or other target
What are four issues with tying compensation to stock prices?
- Stock prices depend on market and industry developments, thus exposing managers to market risks that are outside their control
- If today’s stock price already anticipates superior future performance, the improved performance will not be rewarded with a superior stock-market return
- Tempts managers to withhold bad news or manipulate reported earnings to pump up share prices
- Stock options can encourage excessive risk-taking; gamble for redemption when options are “underwater”