Influences on Voting Behaviour Flashcards
what if explaining elections results was simple?
the outcome of each could be predicted by counting up the number of people who fit into typical demographic profiles. However, there are a range of social factors at play. These tendencies and trends do explain voting patterns and political parties who campaign during elections are aware of them.
how did social class effect voting in the past?
up until the late 1960s possibly as many as 80% of people who voted the the way their social class indicated. From 1945-1970 general elections were defined by the effectiveness with which parties like Labour and Conservative succeeded in mobilising their core support.
evidence of social class influencing voting behaviour in 1964 GE
in 1964, Labour’s Harold Wilson won 64% of DE voters votes while the Conservative PM Alec Douglas-Home won 78% of the support of AB voters.
what is the close link between class and party support described as?
voting attachment
what are the three key reasons for why class was closely associated with voting trends?
- Part of people’s class identity. Expression and reflection. MC and UC voted CP as it added to their status, WC voted Labour and this expressed your class solidarity.
- both major partied developed strong, deep roots within communities so strong voting culture. Roots also strengthened by Labour’s association with strong trade unions.
- Selfish reason. CP perceived to govern the interests of the MC and UC while LP developed policies to help the poor. Rational choice.
impact of class voting on the 2016 referendum.
43% of AB voters voted leave whilst 64% of DE voters voted leave. UKIP gaining more support from DE and C2 voters. Gained 17% of support from DE and 19% from C2 in 2015 election. Due to scape goating and promoting immigration control the woking classes were more likely to vote leave.
Why should class based voting be approached with caution when talking about the 2016 EU referendum?
Voting trends could just be issue based. Believed that C2, D, E social groups most disadvantaged by UKs EU membership. Support for UKIPs leave campaign could have been more of a reflection of instrumental voting motivated by self-interest. Working class favoured UKIP as they believed it will benefit them with their policies.
why would it be simplistic to argue that the public will always vote based on class allegiance .
there has been a decline of class based voting due to partisan dealignment and results of general elections since the 1970s are often based on the governments competence (valance) and salience of specific issues.
what happened in the 1977 GE?
Margaret Thatcher launched the CP campaign in Labour-supoorted Cardiff. Clever attempt at disassociating the party from being too MC. Focused on controlling inflation and confronting trade union power after “Winter of Discontent”. 11% swing to the CP by C2 voters and 9% swing by DE voters. Thatcher won three GEs with significant WC support.
How was Blair successful at broadening LP appeal beyond its core support?
Increased LP share of votes in all social categories and age groups with the progressive appeal of New Labour.
How was the LPs support broadened in the 2017 GE?
Jeremy Corbyn made dramatic inroads into the AB social category doing unexpectedly well in prosperous MC seats like Cantenbury which never returned its Labour MP.
Trend among Teresa May’s and Boris Johnsons support among social classes?
May made striking gains amongst DE voters in traditional WC seats. Pro-Europeans in higher social classes wanted to punish CP for Brexit by voting Labour. DE voters felt that the CP would be more likely to deliver Brexit and control immigration. Trend continued and was a big reason for CP landslide victory in 2019. DE voters in red wall seats helped Boris gain and overwhelming majority of 80 seats.
what voters votes are difficult to predict?
Deviant voters and floating voters tend to vote unpredictably and are liable to change the way they vote.
Proof for class based voting decline.
class DE voting Labour:
1964-64%
2024-34%
class AB voting Conservative:
1964-78%
2024-25%
How do main parties appeal to a wider class base?
they adopt policies which are centrist and consensual. Particularly evident is Starmer’s 2024 manifesto.
what is the impact of ethnicity in deterring voting behaviour?
Strong bias among BME voters against CP and towards LP. Clear and consistent. E.g. in 2017 21% of BME voters voted for CP whilst 65% voted for LP.
How is the BMEs support for Labour closely linked to socio-economic factors
Historically, since Commonwealth immigrant communities were generally within the C2, DE classes, they were more likely to vote Labour because of its high spending on the welfare state and close association with the trade union movement. this suggests that class and income is the relevant factor here.
How does Labour have a strong historical connection with immigrant communities?
LP has shown support towards multiculturalism, Labour introduced the first and subsequent Race Relations Act in 1965, 1968 and 1979.
How has the CP got a hostile legacy between immigrant communities?
Enoch Powell’s ‘Rivers of Blood” speech in 1968 called an for an end to Commonwealth immigration. Stated that if we do not control immigration it will lead to tension, division and segregation. Said white individuals were disregarded due to extra help being given to ethnic minorities.
How did Corbyn’s strong empathy for BME groups contribute to Labour winning seats in the 2017 GE?
He won 49 of the 73 seats in Greater London which has a population of 45% white British. The result in East Ham, which has a non white population of 77% ( most ethnically diverse constituency in the UK) Labour gained 83.2% share of the vote compared to CP with 12.8%. The Cp held just 5 of the 75 most ethnically diverse constituencies in the UK.
How does British Future (think tank that studies attitudes towards migration and ethnicity suggest there is an ethnic bias towards the CO?
the majority of Hindu and Sikh community now support the CP.These groups are becoming increasingly MC. Black and muslim communities continue to support the LP . Nevertheless, in 2019 48% of white voters voted for Labour compared to 29% for Labour.
What is the trend between age and enthnic minority votes?
Labour’s vote share remains consistent among all age groups. However, younger ethnic minority voters are substantially more likely to vote Green (21% of 18-24 year olds compared to 4% of over 65s.) Over 65s tend to back the CP (27% compared to 4% of 18-24).
How has Gaza damaged Labour’s standing with britons of Pakistani and Bangladeshi heritage?
These communities are predominantly Muslim. there is an increased due to starter”s stance on the Gaza conflict. 51% of minority voters backing the greens started that Gaza is a top issue. 41% of Pakistani and Bangladeshi britons state it as a top issue compared to just 5% of the whole public.
is gender a relevant factor in voting behaviour?
from 1945 until the 1980s, political parties attempted to gain the ‘housewives’ vote by articulating women’s concerns with family issues. However, this became less relevant as men and women increasingly play similar roles in society. gender is no longer relevant
proof that there is virtually no difference between the way men and women vote.
2001: Votes for CP
32% men, 33% women
votes for LP
42% men, 42% women
votes for LD
18% men, 19% women
2019:Votes for CP
46% men, 43% women
votes for LP:
31% men, 34% women
voted for LD:
12% men, 12% women
2024 election votes for reform ( link with gender )
gender was not a key variable however, 17% of men voted reform compared to 12% women
link between gender and votes for Thatcher
when Thatcher was leader of the CP (first female leader of a political party in the UK) more women voted for her in 1979 (47% women compared to 43% men) but by 1987 her female share of the vote had declined and both men and women”s vote was 43%. this is because thatcher aimed to have very gender neutral policies.
How did education impact voting behaviour?
the impact significantly changed in the 2017 general election. Those with higher educational qualifications comprise the top social bracket and have been traditionally more likely to vote for the CP
What changed in 2017 in the link between education and voting behaviour?
The CP increased its support among those in the lowest social classes with fewest educational qualifications and the LP achieved higher levels of support among those with degrees in the top brackets. This could be part of a long term trend in which the CP have closely aligned themselves with stricter controls on immigration, thereby increasing their support among white WC voters who feel threatened by globalisation and so decisively voted Brexit in the 2016 referendum.
how did the trend continue in 2019 where the link between education and voting behaviour changed?
there was a 9.5% swing from Labour to CP among those with no qualifications, with more graduates voting for Labour. LP took a more liberal approach to immigration and a more nuanced approach to Brexit. this dramatically increased its support among better educated cosmopolitan voters who voted Remain.
Explain “The Road to Somewhere “
in “The Road to Somewhere” Goodhart contrasted the less educated ‘somewheres’ who are rooted to their communities through a lack of opportunities with better educated ‘anywheres’ who have educational qualifications to take advantage of globalisation. CP achieved its own breakthrough with the ‘somewheres’ whilst LP appealed to the ‘anywheres’
significance of higher educational qualifications in the 2019 general election.
LP votes:
Degree or higher-48%
No Qualifications- 23%
CP votes:
Degree or higher-33%
No Qualifications-59%
significance of higher educational qualifications in the 2024 general election.
LP votes:
Degree of higher-42%
No Qualifications-28%
CP votes:
Degree or higher-18%
No Qualifications-31%
link between education and votes for Reform UK in the 2024 election.
reform did significantly better among those with a lower level of education receiving 23% of the vote among this group compared to 8% of those with a higher level of education. The opposite was true for the LDs and GP who did better among those with higher levels of education.
what is the link between voting behaviour and age?
The CPs support is most common among older voters. Labour and Liberal Democrat parties have generally won more support among younger voters
evidence supporting link between voting behaviour and age.
TREND IS INCREASING
2017 election:
CP votes
18-24 = 18%
65+ = 59%
LP votes
18-24 = 67%
65+ = 23%
2024 election on voting behaviour and age
46% of over 70s voted for the CP compared to 20% for LP and 11% for LD. The median age of LP voter is now 46. The median age of a CP voter is 63. The median age of a LD voter is 48. The median age of a Reform UK voter is 56. Median age of GP voter is 39.
what did Winston Churchill say?
“if a man is not socialist by the time he is 20, he has no heart. If he is not Conservative by the time he is 40, he has no brain.” suggesting that young voters are more emotional and older voters are more rational.
what can reinforce the link between radicalism and the young?
-large proportion of new members of the LP in 2015-16 who joined to support Jeremy Corbyn (seen as progressive) were young voters.
-they tend to cote for more radical parties which focus on single issues and more outward looking ideas.
-in the 2014 Scottish referendum 71% of the new 16-17 year old voters voted in favour of independence compared to 27% of the 65+ category.
Voting turnout by age in the 2019 general election.
age group: 18-24 year olds
proportion of the UK population: 5%
turnout: 51% voted
age group: 65+
proportion of the UK population: 18%
turnout: 76%
Voting by region, 2017 general election.
North England- 53% Labour
South England- 54%
Midlands-50%
London-55%
Scotland-37%
Wales-49%
Key patterns of voting behaviour in certain regions
-South England, particularly South East is the most prosperous region in the UK. High levels of home ownership. High conservative votes
-Labour leads the North of England which was highly industrial in the past. They dominate ethnically diverse cities with a large WC population.
What happened in 2019 GE (link to regional votes)
Conservative break through in traditional red wall seats. Voter dealignment is challenging the traditional dominance of political parties in certain regions.
London and the influence of voter dealignment
-rising costs preventing home ownership decreasing CP support
- capital decisively voted remain in the 2016 GE causing voters to associate the CP with Euroscepticism
-LP metropolitan and multicultural values appeal to many in the capital
-In 2017 election LP secured 49 seats in London compared to 21 CP
