Inflation and unemployment and growth Flashcards
Headline inflation
Is a measure of total inflation within an economy including commodities such as food and energy prices (eg. Oil and gas), which tend to be much more volatile and prone to inflationary spikes- the CPI
Underlying inflation
Measures the rate of inflation after removing the effect of market forces (supply and demand). This is a more accurate measure because it removes seasonality from inflation.
The goldilocks effect
The reserve bank of Australia’s inflation target is between 2-3% (just right). Prices aren’t rising too fast for the economy to keep up whilst the economy is still expanding
Inflation
Rise in the average price level over time
Disinflation
The slowdown in the rate in inflation. Price level still increasing but at a lower rate
Deflation
Fall in the average price level over time
Hyper-inflation
Inflation ‘out of control’- over 100% a year
Why is declining inflation bad?
- Consumers put off purchases, decreasing demand, as they expect them to be cheaper in the future
- Tends to contribute to a low cash rate (the current situation)- investment is discouraged as low interests rates=low rates on return
- Encourages “mattress principle” take money from names and keep it to themselves
- Austerity- leads to spending cuts on social programs
Costs of inflation
- money loses value, people lose faith in money, savings is reduced
- inflation can get out of control (wage price spiral)
- consumers on fixed incomes lose out (pensioners)
- favours borrowers at the expense of savers- inflation erodes the real value of existing debts
- discourages capital investment (planned investment)
- rising inflation reduces economic growth
Benefits of inflation
In Goldilocks zone
- industry wide price rises enables revenues to grow
- increased revenue=higher profits
- inflation makes using debt as a source of finance cheaper in real terms
What factors effects Australia’s inflation
Growth in key trading partners (India, China, other Asian countries)
Value of exchange rate
Wage rates
Competition
Govt regulation (causes prices to rise)
Indirect taxes (carbon tax) increases prices
Unemployment
Occurs when people who are willing and able to work can not find a job
Rate: Calculated by ABS interviewing 2/3 of 1% oh households, all those people living in a dwelling, limited as sample size is limited therefore rate can vary
Unemployment/labour force *100
Full employment
Employable people who want to work have jobs
Doesn’t mean 0% unemployment, now this is 5-6% unemployment, employability is difficult due to changes in technology and higher levels of skills and knowledge demanded
Is not a constant figure but shifts with changes in the economy
Natural rate of unemployment
Determined by structural changes in the economy
Underemployment
Can occur as someone educated but working in a field in which their skills are not used adequately, or when someone is employed on a part time basis but desires full time work
Participation rate
Reps the proportion of Australians over 15 who are a member of the labour force (either employed (1+ hr paid or unpaid 15+hrs in a family business in a week) or unemployed (actively sought work and were willing and able to start but unable))
Total # in labour force/total # in population (15+) multiplied by 100
Rising participation rate= increased supply of labour force. If occurs at the same time as falling unemployment rates sign of stronger labour market and good job prospects
Structural unemployment
Occurs due to changes in method of production for goods and services Generally biggest natural source Many changes can lead to including: - poor business and profit closures - business relocation - new technology and mismatch of skills - effect of globalisation and tariff cuts - govt and microeconomic policies
Frictional unemployment
Exists when people are unemployed between finishing one job and starting another
Seasonal unemployment
Results from termination of jobs at the same time each year due to regular changes in the seasons
Cyclical unemployment (Demand deficient or general)
Follows the ups and downs of the business cycle
Growth
Output=Spending=Income
Saying everything produced is consumed
Nominal GDP
Real GDP
GDP per capita
Nominal- counts cost of everything produced, doesn’t account for inflation
Real- smooth out price shocks, accounts for GDP, accounts for seasonality
GDP per capita- Enables comparison (eg. To US) GDP/pop
Allows for comparison of standard of living between economies and comparison to yourself yearly