Incumbency Factor

Question 1

Advantages of incumbency

Answer 1

• Name recognition: greater name recognition allows for greater media attention
• Fundraising: Incumbents typically can raise much more money than their opponents e.g In the 2018 Senate Massachusetts race, Elizabeth Warren raised $34 million compared to Republican challenger Geoff Diehl who raised only $2 million

Question 2

Potential disadvantages of incumbency

Answer 2

• Name recognition could actually be bad for the incumbent if they have not proved popular in their first term.
• Incumbents can get complacent and underestimate their opponent, potentially leading to them losing their seat. e.g Jacky Rosen defeating Republican incumbent Dean Heller. Heller was the only Republican incumbent to lose reelection in 2018.

Question 3

Presidential incumbency example

Answer 3

• In the last 11 elections that had incumbents running, eight of them won

Question 4

2012 presidential election

Answer 4

• Obama in his reelection campaigns had issues that incumbents usually don’t have:
• The polling was particularly close, with Romney taking the lead after the convention and had a lead in some swing states
• Obama performed rather poorly in television debates
• Despite all this, Obama still won reelection relatively comfortably on results day.