Important things Flashcards
Actual Measurement
Actual measurements that prove that temperature is increasing over time
-actual measurements are geographically sparse and temporally short
Climate Proxy
Used to infere past climate when actual measurements arent available
How do you date something?
- Depth
- [Gas]
- Ash layer
- Varves
- Isotopes
Emission Scenarios
How we behave as humans dictates what the earth will look like
Factors that control emissions?
CO2 input to the atmosphere
Technology
RCP
Representative Concentration Pathways
-Emissions scenarios based on the radiative forcing caused by humans and that occur naturally
Concept from UNFCCC
To stabilize global [GHG] in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system
Commitment
What we can expect based on what we’ve already done
Why model?
- Simplify complex system
- Better understanding of the system
- Predicting and policy needs
- Help understand climate change in the future
Why are models simplified
- Dont know enough about the climate system
- Computer & Time restraints
- Simplifying a complex system with ought losing important information
GCM
Global Circulation Models
-first models used and didnt include ocean component
AOGCM
Atmosphere and Ocean Global Circulation Models
-used to understand the dynamics of the physical components of the climate system and make projections for the future
Earth System Coupled Models
Include all known components and systems of the earth
Hatching
Small changes relative to internal variability
Stippling
Large changes relative to the 86-05 mean and model agreement
Climate Surprise
A gap between ones expectation about the likely climate and whats actually occurring in the climate
Expectable Climate surprises
Events whose probable occurrence and be predicted, calculated and and anticipated
Unexpectable climate surprises
Events who’s occurrence is abrupt and result in a sudden change to the climate system
2 kinds of abrupt changes
Aburpt change to the climate system itself
Changes occur slowly but leads to a tipping point in another system
Tipping poit
Steady changes in climate that “trigger” abrupt shifts in humans and natural systems
2 rates of acceleration
non liner
threshold
PETM
Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum
- Temperatures measure from marine sediment isotopes
- Sudden increase in temperatures caused by fast increase in CO2
Quaternary
Fancy word for ice ages