Important Flashcards

1
Q

ACC

A

Specifying the problem
- Setting out clearly the problem from the viewpoint of each stakeholder
- Assessing and analyzing the risks for each stakeholder
- Considering the strategic courses of action available to manage, mitigate or transfer the particular risks in question
- Analyzing the options for the design of solutions to the problem that transfer risk from one set of stakeholders to another

Developing the solution
- Selecting Appropriate Actuarial Models
- Appropriate Assumptions
- Implications on the overall results and for for all Stakeholders
- Determine a Proposed Solution and Alternatives

Monitoring the experience
- Analyzing periodically the actual experience against expected
- Identifying causes of departure from expected experience and determining whether each source is one-off or likely to recur
- Feeding back into the specifying the problem and developing the solution stages of the ACC
- Making sure the model is ‘dynamic’ (i.e. assumptions are consistent) and reflects current experience

General Commercial and Economic Environment
- ESPERIA

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2
Q

Principle aims of regulation

A

to correct perceived market inefficiencies and to promote efficient and orderly markets
to protect consumers of financial products
to maintain confidence in the financial system
to help reduce financial crime

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3
Q

Regulatory Regimes - Forms of regulation

A
  • Prescriptive
  • Freedom of Action
  • Outcome-based
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4
Q

Outline the five main types of regulatory regime

A
  1. Self-regulatory systems, which are organised and operated by the market participants without government intervention (for example a stock-excange)
  2. Statutory regimes, where the rules are set and policed by the government.
  3. Voluntary codes of conduct, where there is a choice as to whether to adhere
  4. Unregulated markets / lines of business, with no regulation
  5. Mixed regimes, involving a combination of the above, such as professional bodies such as ASSA
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5
Q

Summarize the three main principles of insurance and pensions that impact the design of financial products and the benefits that can be provided from such products

A
  1. Insurable interest - in most countries, an insurance contract is only valid if the person taking out the contract has a financial interest in the insured event, to prevent moral hazard, fraud and other crime
  2. Pre-funding - individuals or corporate bodies put money aside in advance of the occurance a risk event, which is uncertain in terms of whether it will happen, its timing and amount. The amount of money put aside depends on the probability of the risk event occuring, the amount the risk event will cost, and the return that can be earned on the pre-funded money before the risk event occurs
  3. Pooling of risk - protects a group of individuals who pool their finances, against uncertainty in financial costs, which then leads to more cost-efficient provision than if each individual made their own financial provision
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6
Q

Defined Benefit Scheme

A

A defined benefits scheme is one where the scheme rules define the benefits independently of the contributions payable, and benefits are not directly related to the investments of the scheme

Benefits will be defined by a set formula, and might be linked to, for example:
- how long the member works for the sponsoring company
- the member’s salary at retirement

The scheme may be funded or unfunded.

The members’ benefits are promised and independent of investment return, longevity, and administration expenses. The risks, therefore, lie with the employer (if the members live longer than expected, the employer needs to pay more money into the scheme)

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7
Q

Defined Contribution Scheme

A

A defined contribution scheme is one providing benefits where the amount of an individual member’s benefits depends on the contributions paid into the scheme in respect of that member, increased by the investment return earned on those contributions

The risks lie primarily with the members, for example, if investment performance is poor, then each member’s accumulated fund will be smaller than expected and hence the annual pension lower than expected

If an annuity is purchased at retirement, then longevity risk passes to the annuity provider at this time. If an annuity is not purchased, then longevity risk remains with the member

Expenses risk may lie with the employer or the members depending on whether expenses are met separately by the employer or are met from charges taken from the accumulated fund

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8
Q

List the 6 key roles of the State in relation to benefit provision

A
  1. Provide benefits to some, or all of the population
  2. Sponsor the provision of such benefits, perhaps by providing appropriate financial instruments.
  3. Provide financial incentives, usually through the tax system, either for other providers to establish appropriate provision, or to subsidize the cost of providing such provision to consumers.
  4. Educate or require education about the importance of providing for the future.
  5. Regulate to encourage or compel benefit provision by or on behalf of some of the population.
  6. Regulate bodies providing benefits, and bodies with custody of funds, in an attempt to ensure security of promises made, or expectations created
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9
Q

Income drawdown (Living annuity I think)

A

Allows an individual to leave their accumulated fund invested and draw an income from it annually. This may be just the income earned on the fund or may also include some of the fund capital

May be limits on how much can be drawn each year and an age limit at which point an annuity must be purchased.

One of the main drivers behind the income drawdown approach is that, should the member die before having to secure an annuity, the member’s heirs can inherit the balance of the fund

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10
Q

Describe the principle of mutuality in healthcare

A

A pooled fund is created and premiums are paid into the fund by policyholders.

The premium paid by the policyholders is determined by the RISK presented by the policyholder at the time of taking out the contract.

Claims are paid out of the pooled funds in accordance with the policyholder agreement.

Disadvantage:
While the risk pool is not sensitive to policyholders entering and leaving since each is contributing to their risk, high-risk lives will not be able to access cover due to affordability and this could have adverse social implications

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11
Q

Describe the principle of solidarity in healthcare

A

Solidarity is similar to mutuality in that they both involve the concept of sharing losses.

However, the main differences are:

  1. Under solidarity principles, the premiums are not based on risk, but rather on the ability to pay, or are set equally.
  2. Under solidarity principles, losses are paid according to need.
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12
Q

reimbursement mechanics for healthcare providers

A

Fee-for-service
Providers are reimbursed for each service provided.
No restrictions apply on the cost of the service.

Negotiated fee-for-service
The tariff or remuneration rate for each type of service is defined through negotiations or being defined in advance.
This may lead to policyholders having to cover part of the costs through out-of-pocket payments.

Global fee
There is a fixed tariff/fee per episode of care with the service provider assuming some risk for the level of services required per patient (eg maternity or a knee replacement)

Capitation
A fixed amount is paid per policyholder/beneficiary who has the option to use the service.
The fee is paid regardless of whether the service is used or not.
This transfers the risk from the insurer to the provider of services

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13
Q

Aspects of healthcare markets that distinguish it from other markets

A
  1. Public good characteristics and universal access (in many communities access to some form of healthcare service is regarded as a basic human right)
  2. Information asymmetry, over-supply and demand
  3. Information about the range and quality of healthcare services relative to cost is difficult, if not impossible, for consumers to obtain.
  4. Rapidly increasing costs of healthcare services
  5. Importance of health insurance:

A
There is a high level of uncertainty surrounding future health, and thus uncertainty around the timing and nature of services needed.

Healthcare needs increase with age.

Individuals can provide for these costs through savings and insurance products. They are likely to underestimate the need to plan financially.

This adds extra pressure to employer-funded or state-funded systems.

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14
Q

List the four generic groups of general insurance products

A
  1. Liability
    - Employers’
    - Motor third party
    - Public
    - Product
    - Professional indemnity
  2. Property damage
    - Residential buildings
    - Commercial buildings
    - Movable products
    - Land vehicles
    - Marine craft
    - Aircraft
  3. Financial loss
    - Pecuniary loss
    - Fidelity guarantee
    - Business interruption
    - Cyber security
  4. Fixed benefit
    - Personal accident
    - Health
    - Unemployment
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15
Q

Outline the seven features of liability insurance

A
  1. Provides indemnity where the insured, due to some form of negligence, is legally liable to pay compensation to some third party
  2. The legal fees associated with the claim are usually also covered
  3. Illegal acts of negligence will invalidate the claim and no payment will be made by the insurer
  4. There may be an upper limit (per claim or aggregate per year) and/or excess amount applied to the claim
  5. On the occurrence of a claim the cover may be cancelled, or a reinstatement premium or higher premium might be required for the cover to continue
  6. The claims are usually medium to long tailed and are likely to be real in nature
  7. International or national laws apply, depending on the type of cover
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16
Q

List the different types of reserves/provisions for general insurance contracts

A
  1. Outstanding reported claims reserve.
  2. IBNR reserve.
  3. Unexpired risk reserve.
  4. Catastrophe reserve.
  5. Claims handling expense reserve.
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17
Q

Money Market Instruments

A

Treasury Bill:
Issuer: Central Government
Typical Term: 91 or 182 days
Tradable: Yes

Local Authority Bill:
Issuer: Local Government
Typical Term: 91 or 182 days
Tradable: Yes

Bill of Exchange:
Issuer: Companies
Typical Term: Up to 1 year
Tradable: Yes

Commercial Paper:
Issuer: Large, listed companies
Typical Term: Up to one year
Tradable: Yes

Certificate of Deposit:
Issuer: Banks
Typical Term: 28 days to 6 months
Tradable: Yes

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18
Q

Policy objectives of Central Banks

A

Inflation
- Demand-pull inflation is the increase in aggregate demand which pull prices upward
- Cost-push inflation is the decrease in the aggregate supply of goods and services stemming from an increase in the cost of production.

Economic growth

Exchange rate
- Implement foreign exchange laws

Stability of financial sector

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19
Q

Monetary policy / Money market operations of the central bank to manage liquidity and inflation rates (ie the money supply)

A
  • Set (overnight) repo rate and use repo and reverse repo arrangements
  • Sale and purchase of treasury bills (and possibly other instruments)
  • Commercial bank reserve requirements (‘reserve ratio’)
  • Printing money and quantitative easing
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20
Q

Quantity Theory of Money

A

MV=PY

Where M=quantity of money, V=velocity of money, P=price level, Y=no. of transactions
(i.e. money supply matches the value of transactions or GDP)
In the short term, V and Y are constant.
Hence an increase in M leads to an increase in P

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21
Q

Why do institutional investors not normally invest a large proportion of funds in money market instruments?

A

I. Money market instruments give a lower expected return than other, riskier assets

II. Money market instruments are not a good match for long-term liabilities.

III. There is reinvestment risk – Proceeds will have to be reinvested on unknown terms

IV. Short term interest rates will move broadly in line with price inflation. However, money market instruments are not a good match if the investor has real liabilities linked to some other index

V. Too large a proportion would result in a lack of diversification

VI. There may be a limited supply of money market instruments available

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22
Q

Bonds

A

An alternative term for a fixed-interest or index-linked security

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23
Q

Nominal GRY (required return) on Bonds

A

Nominal GRY (required return) =
Risk-free real yield + expected future inflation + bond risk premium
Where bond risk premium = inflation risk premium
+ default / credit risk premium
+ marketability / illiquidity premium

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24
Q

3 Types of corporate bonds

A
  • Debentures (medium- to long-term debt instrument used by large companies to borrow money, at a fixed rate of interest)
  • Unsecured loan stock
  • Subordinated debt
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25
Q

Gross redemption yield

A

The return an investor would expect to get on a bond if they held it until redemption

This assumes they could reinvest the coupons at the same rate, and ignores expenses, tax and default risk

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26
Q

Define the term ordinary share and describe the features of ordinary shares

A

Ordinary shares are securities held by the owners of an organization

Features
● Shareholders have a right to receive all distributable profits after debtholders and preference shareholders.
● Dividends are related to profits and hence unknown in advance
● Dividends are variable but expect to generally increase over time
● Companies try not to reduce dividends (dividend cover ratio or payout ratio can be volatile)
● They rank behind all creditors for repayment on winding up.
● Ordinary shares have no final redemption date.
● They carry voting rights.

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27
Q

Suggest reasons why a company might want to buy back some of its shares

A
  • Excess cash that cannot be used profitably and is
    returned to shareholders
  • Excess cash may only earn deposit rate of interest,
    thus disposing the cash improves earning per share for remaining shares
  • May be more tax-efficient way of returning cash to shareholders than dividends
  • Company may wish to change capital structure from
    equity financing to debt financing
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28
Q

Features of Preference Shares

A

● The dividend on a preference share is usually a fixed percentage of the par
value
…and is always paid before any distribution to ordinary shareholders.
● The dividends do not have to be paid if profits are insufficient.
● They are generally cumulative so that if a dividend is unpaid, the arrears must also be paid off before any payment is made to ordinary shareholders.
● They usually rank before ordinary shares for repayment on winding up.
● Most preference shares have no final redemption date.
● They do not normally carry voting rights.

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29
Q

What are the advantages of listed shares over unlisted shares to the investor

A
  1. Greater marketability
  2. Greater divisibility
  3. More information is available, due to disclosure requirements
  4. Greater security, from stock exchange regulations
  5. Easier to value
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30
Q

PROBLEMS with direct property investment:

A

Size usually too large for most investors

Diversification within property is difficult due to large unit size

Lack of marketability (time taken, costs)

Valuation is unknown and/or costly (surveyor needed)

Specialised expertise (property, local conditions) needed to invest and manage direct property

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31
Q

Types of indirect property investment

A

Pooled property funds
- include open-ended unitised funds (unlisted: price = NAV) and closed-ended property investment trusts (listed: price < NAV normally)
- normally have constitutions that specify the type of property that can be invested in
- these are trust REIT’s (Real estate investment trusts)

Property shares
- companies that manage, operate, and own a real estate portfolio consisting of income-producing property)
- these are company REIT’s

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32
Q

What is a collective investment scheme?

A

o Structure for the management of investments on a grouped basis
- Structure is split between a trust (trust deed) and a company (articles), each of which can be open- or closed ended
o Will have a stated investment objective

Purpose (of CIS’s from the investor’s perspective)
- Diversification and lower portfolio risk
- Access to expertise
- Access to larger / unusual investments
- Economies of scale (reducing investment expenses)
- Possible tax advantages

33
Q

Open-Ended Unit Trusts

A

“trust” in the legal sense =>

o Governed by trust law: trust deed, trustees, management company, unit-holders

o “Open ended” form of fund so units are created and cancelled daily as needed
- This makes marketability of unit trusts very good
- But the fund must keep some assets as cash to meet unit redemptions (and may not be able to invest new cash quickly) => returns impacted by “cash drag”
- Maybe a forced seller of assets to meet unit redemptions => impact on returns

o Unlikely to be able to borrow => impact on returns (lower expected returns, but also less volatile)

o Unit price based on NAV = MV of assets / number of units, but issues include:
- Market value of underlying assets based on bid or offer prices?
- How are costs recouped by the UT fund e.g. may have a bid and offer price (but in SA they usually don’t anymore)

o Unit price is calculated and published daily – allows investors to track performance and easy to determine asset valuation (e.g. for solvency purposes)

34
Q

Investment Trust Companies

A

Not a “trust” but a public company =>

o Governed by company law: board of directors, management team, shareholders

o “Closed ended” form of fund where units/shares are not created/cancelled daily:
- Marketability for investors is not guaranteed
- ITC does not need cash to redeem units => no “cash drag”
- Less likely to be a forced seller of assets to redeem units => higher expected returns

o Capital structure consists of equity and possibly debt

o Debt or gearing => impact on returns (higher expected returns but can be volatile)

o Shares may be listed on a stock exchange (so listing requirements must be met)
- Results (and NAV) only published as required, normally twice a year => more difficult for
investors to monitor performance and makes asset valuation more difficult.

o Share price unlikely to be the same as NAV

35
Q

Open Ended Investment Companies (OEIC)

A

Not a “trust” but a public company =>

o Governed by company law: board of directors, management team, shareholders

o “Open ended” form of fund so shares are created and cancelled daily as needed
- This makes marketability very good
- But the fund must keep some assets as cash to meet unit redemptions (and may not be
able to invest new cash quickly) => returns impacted by “cash drag”
- May be a forced seller of assets to meet unit redemptions => impact on returns

o Capital structure consists of equity and possibly debt
o Debt or gearing => impact on returns (higher expected returns but can be volatile)

o Shares may be listed on a stock exchange (so listing requirements must be met)
- NAV must be calculated and published daily – allows investors to track performance and easy to determine asset valuation (e.g. for solvency purposes)
- Share price = NAV

36
Q

Define a futures contract

A

A standardized, exchange-traded contract to buy (or sell) a specified asset at a specified price on a specified date in the future

37
Q

Define a forward contract

A

A non-standardized, OTC traded contract to buy (or sell) a specified asset at a specified price on a specified date in the future

38
Q

Define the term ‘warrant’

A

A warrant is an option issued by a company over its own shares. The holder has the right to purchase shares at a specified price at specified times in the future from the company.

39
Q

Outline the main uses of derivatives

A
  1. Providing protection against the risk of adverse market movements:
    - using futures contacts to set the price of input goods in advance
    - E.g. using a put option to protect asset portfolios against significant market value falls
  2. Aiming to achieve higher returns / profits through speculation
  3. Allowing financial institutions to alter the structures of their portfolios without needing to trade in the underlying assets
40
Q

List the main theories of the conventional bond yield curve

A

Expectations Theory
Liquidity Preference Theory
Inflation Risk Premium Theory
Market Segmentation Theory

41
Q

Expectations theory

A

the yield curve is determined by economic factors, which drive the market’s expectations for future short-term interest rates.

42
Q

Liquidity Preference Theory

A

Liquidity preference theory – investors prefer liquid assets to illiquid ones.

Therefore, investors require a greater return on long-term, less liquid stocks.

This causes the yield curve to be more upward sloping / less downward sloping than suggested by pure expectations theory.

43
Q

Inflation Risk Premium Theory

A

Liquidity preference theory – investors prefer liquid assets to illiquid ones.

Therefore, investors require a greater return on long-term, less liquid stocks.

This causes the yield curve to be more upward sloping / less downward sloping than suggested by pure expectations theory.

44
Q

Market Segmentation (or Preferred Habitat) Theory

A

Market segmentation theory – yields at each term to redemption are determined by supply and demand from investors with liabilities of that term.

45
Q

Economic influences on bond yield

A
  • Inflation (expected level, and uncertainty)
  • Short-term (MM) interest rates
  • Exchange rate
  • Public sector borrowing (fiscal deficit)
  • Institutional cashflows
  • Returns on alternative investments (Both domestic and overseas)
  • Other economic factors
46
Q

Factors affecting the level of the equity market

A

P = PV of dividends = d / (i-g)
where i is the required yield

“P” (and thus ‘required yield i’) affected by expectations for:
* Future profits (and Real economic growth)
* Real interest rates
* Affect economic activity
* Discount rate
* Inflation (mainly indirect effects on growth, rates, uncertainty)
* Investor perceptions of riskiness and Equity risk premium (marketability, security, volatility)
* Currency movements will impact on profits from offshore sales and cost-push inflation

Other influences
* Any factor affecting supply
* E.g. Rights issues, share buy-backs or privatisations
* Any factor affecting demand
* E.g. Changes to tax rules, political climate
* Overseas equity markets

47
Q

Factors affecting the level of the property market

A

Economic influences have an impact on the property market in 3 main interrelated areas:
* Occupation market (demand for occupational rental) (Generally linked to economic growth (increasing demand for premises) and business cycle stage:)
* Development cycles (supply of new developments)
* Investment markets (supply and demand for investment properties)

48
Q

State the formula for the simplified dividend discount model, defining all terms used and stating assumptions.

A

V = D/(i-g)

V is the value of the share
D is the dividend in exactly one year’s time
i is the investor’s required rate or return
g is the dividend growth rate

Assumptions:
1. Dividends paid annually with the next payment in 1 years time.
2. Dividends grow at a constant rate g per annum
3. The required rate of return, i, is independent of the time at which the payments are received and divideds can be reinvested at this rate.
4. i and g are both real or both nominal with i > g
5. Shares are held in perpetuity
6. No taxes or expenses

49
Q

Callable bond

A

Bond that the borrower can choose to repay at any time.

50
Q

Puttable bond

A

The investor can demand repayment at any time.

51
Q

State the formula for the required return on an asset

A

Required Return = risk free return + expected inflation + risk premium

52
Q

What criteria should an investment objective for an institutional investor satisfy?

A

Clearly stated
Quantifiable
Framed in terms of risk, total required return and timing of cashflows

53
Q

4 Definitions of Risk

A

probability of default
expected variability of return
risk of underperforming compared with competitors
probability of failing to achieve the investor’s objectives.

54
Q

What are the two key principles of investment?

A

A provider should select investments that are appropriate to the nature, term, currency and uncertainty of the liabilities and the provider’s appetite for risk.
Subject to the first constrain, the investments should be selected to maximize the overall return on the assets, where overall return includes both income and capital gains.

55
Q

What is an ‘asset-liability model’

A

A
An asset liability model is a deterministic or stochastic MODEL that can be USED to help an institutional investor SET an INVESTMENT STRATEGY.

The model will have a SPECIFIED OBJECTIVE with a MEASURABLE TARGET that refers to assets and liabilities, a time horizon and a probability CI. For example, the value of the assets less the value of the liabilities must be greater than zero 95% of the time.

For a particular investment strategy, an asset-liability model PROJECTS ASSET PROCEEDS and LIABILITY OUTGO CASHFLOWS into the future and values them.

The model is run and re-run, each time changing the investment strategy, until the stated objective is met.

The model should be dynamic, i.e. allow for correlations between asset and liability cashflows.

56
Q

Immunisation

A

The investment of the assets in such a way that the (present value of the assets) MINUS the (present value of the liabilities) is immune/unresponsive to a general small change in the rate of interest.

57
Q

7 Theoretical and practical problems with immunisation

A

immunisation is generally aimed at meeting fixed monetary liabilities
immunisation removes mismatching profits and losses apart from a second-order effect
the theory relies upon small changes in interest rates
the theory assumes a flat yield curve and level interest rate changes at all times
in practice, the portfolio must be constantly rebalanced to maintain:
equal discounted mean term
greater spread of asset proceeds
the theory ignores dealing costs
Assets of a suitably long discounted mean term may not exist
the timing of asset proceeds and liability outgo may not be known

58
Q

Define the term ‘risk budgeting’

A

The term risk budgeting refers to the process of establishing how much risk should be taken and where it is the most efficient to take the risk (in order to maximize return)

The risk budgeting process has two parts:
1. deciding how to allocate the maximum permitted overall risk between active risk and strategic risk
2. allocating the total active risk budget across the component portfolios

Risk budgeting is, therefore, an investment style where ASSET ALLOCATIONS
are based on an asset’s risk contribution to the portfolio as well as on the asset’s expected return.

Overall risk = strategic risk + active risk + structural risk

Risk tolerance is main influence on SAA

59
Q

Strategic risk

A

The risk of poor performance of the strategic benchmark relative to the value of the liabilities.

60
Q

Structural risk

A

The risk of underperformance if the sum of the individual benchmarks given to fund managers does not add up to the strategic benchmark

61
Q

Active risk

A

The risk of underperformance if the fund managers do not invest exactly in line with the individual benchmarks as they are given.

62
Q

Define 2 measures of active risk

(tactical asset allocation risk = active risk)

A

Historic (or backward-looking) tracking error, i.e. annualized standard deviation of difference between actual and benchmark returns (used for equity portfolios).
Forward-looking tracking error, i.e. estimated standard deviation of relative returns if the current portfolio was unaltered

63
Q

List two methods of measuring the rate of return on an investment portfolio

A

Money weighted rate of return (MWRR)
Time weighted rate of return (TWRR)
(be able to compare and contrast both the uses and disadvantaged of these two)

64
Q

MWRR

A

The MWRR is the discount rate at which present value of inflows = present value of outflows in the portfolio

(sensitive to to contributions and withdrawals)

65
Q

TWRR

A

The TWRR is the compounded growth rate of a unit investment over the period being measured. It is the product of growth factors between consecutive cashflows,

(not sensitive to contributions and withdrawals)

66
Q

Set out the steps involved in developing and running a deterministic model

A

Specify the purpose of the investigation
Collect, group and modify data
Choose the form of the model and its parameters / variables
Ascribe values to those parameters using past experience / estimations
Construct a model based on expected cashflows
Test the model and correct if necessary
Check goodness of fit using past data, modify if poor
Run using estimates of future values of variables
Sensitivity tests (and maybe scenario test) using different parameter values

66
Q

Additional / Alternative steps in a stochastic model

A

Choose a density function for each of the stochastic variables
Specify correlations between the variables
Run model many times using a random sample from the chosen density function
Produce a summary of results – a distribution (e.g. summarized at various confidence levels)

67
Q

What are the RELATIVE merits of deterministic vs stochastic models?

A

Deterministic:
- Quicker, cheaper and easier to design, build and run
- Clearer what scenarios have been tested
- Results are easier to explain to a non-technical audience

Stochastic:
- Allows naturally for the uncertainty of outcomes
- Enable better modelling of the correlations between variables
- Test a wider range of scenarios
- Good at identifying extreme outcomes, which may not have been thought of under a deterministic scenario
- Important in assessing the impact of financial guarantees

67
Q

What are the RELATIVE merits of deterministic vs stochastic models?

A

Deterministic:
- Quicker, cheaper and easier to design, build and run
- Clearer what scenarios have been tested
- Results are easier to explain to a non-technical audience

Stochastic:
- Allows naturally for the uncertainty of outcomes
- Enable better modelling of the correlations between variables
- Test a wider range of scenarios
- Good at identifying extreme outcomes, which may not have been thought of under a deterministic scenario
- Important in assessing the impact of financial guarantees

68
Q

What should the rate used to discount the net cashflows in model reflect?

A

The return required by the company
The level of statistical risk attaching to the cashflows
NOTE: In theory a different discount rate should be used for each cashflow (as the risk is different); In practice a single rate is often used based on the average risk of the product

69
Q

What are model points? Why are they used? How may they be chosen?

A

A model point is a representative single policy

The business being modelled may comprise a very large number of different policies and it may be too time consuming to run all of these through a model.

So, policies are classified into relatively homogeneous groups.

A model point for each group is chosen that is representative of the whole group.

The model point is run through the model and the output is then scaled up by the number of policies in the group to give the results of the whole group.

For pricing purposes, model points are chosen to reflect the expected profile of future business to be sold. This could be based on the existing profile, or that of a similar product.

70
Q

Spurious selection

A

Ascribing mortality differences to groups formed by factors that are not the true causes of these differences..

Examples include:
- mortality improvements that are actually due to increasing the strictness of underwriting
- geographical mortality differences that are actually due to a different balance of high and low risk occupations

71
Q
A

A
ALPACAS

Actuaries
Lawyers
Providers of benefits
Accountants
Customers
Administrators
Shareholders / financial backers

72
Q

List 6 ways of financing pension scheme benefits

A

Pay as you go
Smoothed pay as you go
Terminal funding
Just in time funding
Regular contributions
Lump sum in advance
All financing strategies are influenced by RISK TOLERANCE and TAX TREATMENT.

73
Q

List the 6 stages in the risk management control cycle.

Which is considered to be the hardest?

A

Risk identification
Risk classification
Risk measurement
Risk control
Risk financing
Risk monitoring
Risk identification is seen as the hardest aspect because the risks to which an organisation is exposed are numerous and their identification needs to be comprehensive. The biggest risks are unidentified ones, as they will not have been appropriately managed.

74
Q

Outline 5 methods of identifying the risks associated with a project

A

High level preliminary analysis to confirm that there are no big risks that mean it is not worth continuing.
Brainstorming with project experts and senior internal / external people to:
- identify likely/unlikely, upside/downside risks
- discuss these risks and their interdependency
- broadly evaluate the frequency and severity of each risk
- generate and discuss initial mitigation options
Desktop analysis to supplement brainstorming, which involves looking at similar projects undertaken by the sponsor and others.
Consult with experts who are familiar with the details of the project and the plans for financing it.
Risk register or risk matrix setting out risks and ther interdependencies

75
Q

What 3 factors make a risk insurable?

A

The policyholder must have an interest in the risk being insured, to distinguish between insurance and a wager.
The risk must be of a financial and reasonable quantifiable nature.
The amount payable in the event of a claim must bear some relationship the the financial loss incurred.

76
Q

How could each risk mitigation option be evaluated?

A