impacts, adaptation and mitigation Flashcards
lecture
definition of effect
A change in some aspect of the environment
what did boris johnon say about the impacts and consequences?
temps will go up by 2.7 degrees or more by the end of the century
we will see desertification, drought, crop failure and mass movements of humanity on a scale not seen before. - blames us humans as well!
definition of impact
An effect with a consequence
ipcc ar6 definiton of impact:
Impact- The consequences of realized risks on natural and human systems…Impacts generally refer to effects on lives, livelihoods, health and well-being, ecosystems and species, economic, social and cultural assets, services (including ecosystem services), and infrastructure. Impacts may be referred to as consequences or outcomes and can be adverse or beneficial.
IPCC AR6 Glossary
detection
can we detect a trend of the impacts?
attribution
can we attribute the trend to human activities?
impacts: list 3
crop growth
liveligood
hunger food security
Direct risks can cascade into …..
SYSTEMIC RISKS
Impacts and risks are a function of change in …… 3 THINGS?
hazard, exposure and vulnerability
- They therefore depend on climate change and on socio- economic change
heatwaves lead to impacts on…
health
infrastructure
crop yields
impacts of more/less floods , droughts, wildfire
water supply
damage and injury
crop yields
impacts of snow and ice - less snow
water supply
infrastructure
tourism
higher sea level and more floods impacts
damage and injury
infrastructure
what are 5 example indicators of direct impact?
1 population exposed to drought
2 river flood risk
3 heatwave risk
4 cropland drought risk
5 maize heat stress risk
Future socio-economic impacts can depend as much on socio-economic assumptions as on the …
amount of climate change.
list 7 direct risks
heatwaves
droughts
floods
storms
fire
ecosystem changes
agricultural suitability
list 7 systemic risks:
loss of livelihoods
displacement
conflict
financial disruption
economic disruption
human health impacts
food insecurity
climate sensitivity definition
Defines temperature response to forcing
*Approximately 0.8 K / (W/m-2)
list the natural and anthropogenic forcings :
Natural and anthropogenic forcings
*Natural = solar, volcanic, orbital
*Anthropogenic = greenhouse gases, aerosols, changes in albedo
*Total observed forcing = 2.7 W/m-2 since 1750
whats next in reducing the rate of climate change?
MITIGATION
INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE POLICY
BUDETS AND TARGERS
whats next in adapting to a changing climate?
ADAPTATION
RISK ASSESSMENT
ESTIMATING LOCAL CHANGES
definition of mitigation
reducing the amount of climate change
reducing emissions / storing carbon
list the 4 mitigation measures
- Decarbonise energy sources
Renewables / nuclear / biomass / hydrogen - Reduce demand for energy
Substitution / elimination - Use energy more efficiently
Reduce energy intensity - Reduce sources / increase sinks
Manage land / Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) - Geo-engineering
Manipulate the climate or the carbon budget…
GEOENGINEERING - HOW?
- Mirrors in space
- Aerosols in the atmosphere
- Fertilise the ocean
what was the kyoto protocol?
Developed countries committed to reducing GHG emissions by 5% over the period 2010-2012, relative to
* Includes measures to facilitate carbon trading / offsetting
* Can count emissions “saved” by reducing deforestation
The Kyoto Protocol to the Convention commits its parties to binding targets based on a ‘basket’ of six GHGs:
* carbon-dioxide (CO2)
* methane (CH4)
* nitrous oxide (N2O)
* hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) * perfluorocarbons (PFCs)
* sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)
prior to COP21 countries sumbitted pledges to…
reduce emissions
what is COP26
Glasgow Climate Pact
Reaffirms role of science
Strengthens commitments on emissions Calls on parties to update commitments soon … covers impacts and adaptation too… …but left some things for later….
what were the issues with COP27
Key issues
Pledges and commitments
Funding
very little progress – arguably backwards nothing very specific on this
Compensation: ‘loss and damage’
established a principle, but no details
what is still an issue with these pledges etc?
- Monitoring and verification as an issue
- How do we know what differences the pledges make, and how do we know how far short they fall?
advantage and disadvantage of global climate model?
Lots of detail, but slow and expensive
advantage and disadvantage of simple climate model
Limited information, but quick and cheap
2 types of emissions pathways
stylised pathways and realistic pathways
definiton of the emissions gap:
The difference between future emissions and the emissions budget
what are the effects of policy on impacts?
Reducing emissions has little effect in the near-term, but a greater effect in the long term
Current policies would lead to an increase of around
2.7oC – up to 3.4oC
An optimistic interpretation of plans leads to an increase of around
1.8oC.
Net zero by 2050 to achieve Paris targets
Currently heading for ….
1.8oC at best, > 3 at worst
what are 2 key issues
sources of evidence
climate science and climate policy
4 sources of evidence> ?
*Observations
-Ground observations at points Earth observation
*Experimentation
-Relatively little – some relating to atmospheric chemistry
*Theory
-Physics theories of the energy balance
- Models
-Based on physical principles Validated, not calibrated
list some more sources of evidence:
*Peer reviewed academic journals
* IPCC Assessments
* Text books
* Websites?
* Government reports? * Other types of report?
issue with science and policy
the people with the responsibility and power to make choices need to be informed by scientific evidence - so this needs to be as accurate as possible!
definition of adaptation
*adjusting to altered circumstances
Managing risk Managing resources Grasping opportunities
Autonomous vs planned Reactive vs proactive
Adaptation or increasing resilience?
what are the 3 adaptation measures?
alter physical hazard
alter exposure to the hazard
reduce vulnerability to the hazard
What do we need to know in order to adapt?
Is there an issue?
* What exactly do we need to plan for?
* When do we need to take action?
* What options are available (at what cost and
consequence)?
* How effective are the options?
three key challenges
*Scale: how do we go from the global to the local?
- Emissions assumptions
- How can we characterise uncertainty? -How many scenarios should we use?
issues going from global models to local climate?
spatial scale
BIAS
to create weather and climate data at the appropriate space and time scale, we can use bias adjustment techniques in climate modeling. This involves adjusting climate model projections to better match observed weather data over a specific time period.
One approach is to compare the simulated weather from climate models with actual observed weather data and identify any biases or discrepancies. Then, adjustments are made to the model results to bring them into closer agreement with the observed data.
Another method is called the Delta method, where changes in climate projected by the models are defined, and these changes are applied to real-world data. This involves calculating the difference, or delta, between the model projections and the observed data, and then applying this difference to adjust the real-world data accordingly.
Both of these approaches help improve the accuracy of climate model projections by accounting for biases and discrepancies between model simulations and observed weather data, ultimately providing more reliable information for understanding and predicting future climate conditions.
To enhance the detail of climate simulations, regional climate models (RCMs) are utilized in conjunction with global climate models (GCMs). Here’s how it works:
Driving by a Global Model: RCMs are nested within GCMs, meaning they use output data from the larger-scale GCMs as boundary conditions. GCMs provide the broader picture of climate patterns on a global scale but lack the resolution needed to capture local climate processes accurately.
Improved Local Representation: RCMs offer higher spatial resolution, allowing for a better representation of local climate processes such as topography, land use, and small-scale atmospheric phenomena. By incorporating finer details, RCMs can simulate regional climate features more accurately.
By combining the strengths of both GCMs and RCMs, researchers can obtain a more comprehensive understanding of climate dynamics at various scales. This integrated approach helps bridge the gap between global-scale climate projections and local-scale impacts, providing valuable insights for climate adaptation and mitigation efforts.
what emission scenarios to use?
scenarios based on policies?
scenarios used to run climate moderls
-best and worst case sceanrios
Problems with probabilities
Can we estimate the probabilities with precision?
* Can we apply a probabilistic method in practice?
* “Probabilities” are interpreted as forecasts
* A probabilistic approach encourages a “predict and provide” response
An alternative: storylines
Build a small number of plausible stories describing changes in relevant aspects of climate
Problems:
- how realistic are the
storylines?
- do they span the full
range?
Barriers to adaptation
Lack of awareness of the need to adapt
* Lack of knowledge of the potential changes ahead
* Lack of resources and capacity to adapt
* Low priority given to adaptation
* Lack of knowledge of adaptation measures * Institutional constraints on actions
* Resistance from other priorities and actors
adaptation in the UK
-national adaptation programme
-climate change risk assessment 3 priorities
