Impact of Inflation

Question 1

What has been annualized inflation over the last century?

Answer 1

3%. If you had kept your money in cash you would have lost 3% every year.

Question 2

In the last century, what time period is regarded as inflationary?

Answer 2

1973-1981.

Question 3

What were real asset class returns during that inflationary period?

Answer 3

Only commodities and gold were positive on a real basis (3%, 13%) and the rest were negative.

Question 4

What is the last major time period of disinflation?

Answer 4

1982-2019

Question 5

What were real returns during that disinflationary period?

Answer 5

Equities 8-9%, Corp bonds 7.5%, REITS 7%

Question 6

There is a strong correlation between XXXX and inflationary expectations? Implications

Answer 6

Oil.

Oil rising should be positive for Gold and commodities and vice versa.