ILA-LPM D Flashcards
What is the main goal of in-force management?
- get more profit out of in-force business (don’t just try to sell more business)
List 6 levers for effective in-force management
- Steering liability portfolios to support strategic ambitions and financial targets
- Improving persistency
- Improving claims management
- Adjusting asset management subject to regulatory constraints and risk appetite
- Optimizing capital
- Increasing operational efficiency (reducing costs)
List the 8 steps for applying a holistic in-force steering framework
- Set financial targets
- Determine constraints
- Project future market conditions
- Identify opportunities and rank by attractiveness
- Specify target liability portfolio
- Manage asset portfolio
- Optimize capital structure
- Verify that constraints are met
Describe ways that insurers can re-design products and develop services to manage in-force blocks
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Align product strategy to cope with changing market conditions
- Lower/abolish guaranteed benefits
- Shift interest rate and market risks to policyholders with unit-linked products
- Reprice biometric risks (mortality)
- Prepare for rising interest rates (shock lapses)
- Develop new services to improve consumer value (e.g. wearables)
Define cross-selling and up-selling and list their benefits and challenges
- Cross-selling – selling a new product to an existing customer
- Up-selling – upgrading an existing customer’s product
-
Benefits:
- Cross/up-sell when policyholder reports a claim
- Reduce costs/prices by targeting good risks
- Diversify underwriting risks
- Challenges: fragmented IT, silos, insufficient demographic info
List 3 solutions for reducing the risk in unprofitable blocks of business
- Adjust non-guaranteed elements (dividends, crediting rates, premiums)
- Exchange/conversion programs
- Buyout programs (buy back unprofitable products)
List 4 options for dealing with unprofitable or non-core run-off business
- Retain and run off to expiry
- Outsource to a third-party administrator (TPA)
- Reinsure with maintained or outsourced administration
- Sell block
Also, try to recall or list out pros and cons of each of these!
Describe 5 methods for improving persistency on in-force blocks
- Response levers: premium holidays, discounts, exchanges
- Gradual transitions to ART for term business
- Behavioral economics: understand consumers’ evolving needs
- Predictive analytics is promising for the future
- Increase customer engagement (mobile, social media, etc.)
List at least 4 methods for improving claims management
- Increasing process efficiency with automation
- Enhancing claims experience: easy, effective, and timely
- Improving fraud prevention and detection: notifications, training
- Claims analytics improvements: easier data collection and predictive modeling
- Health recovery and job reintegration: LTC/disability claimants
- Nudging health-related behaviors: text reminders, behavioral economics
List ways that insurers can adjust asset management for in-force blocks
- Improve asset-liability duration match
- Hedge investment risks with derivatives
- Invest in higher-yielding assets
- Alternative investments (private equity, hedge funds)
- Less liquid asset classes (RE, infrastructure, CMTGs)
- Lower-rated bonds (BBB corporates, etc.)
List 2 ways that insurers can optimize capital on in-force blocks
- Stabilizing Cash Flows and Earnings
- Freeing Up Trapped Capital
Describe ways that insurers can optimize capital on in-force blocks
- Stabilizing Cash Flows and Earnings
- Transferring mortality/morbidity risks – reinsurance, cat bonds
- Reinsure longevity risk on life annuities
- Transferring lapse risk – VIF solutions, non-proportional lapse risk reinsurance
Describe ways that insurers can optimize capital on in-force blocks
- Freeing Up Trapped Capital
- XXX/AXXX excess reserve financing
- Monetize VIF or sell block
Describe ways that insurers can increase operational efficiency for in-force blocks
-
Modernize the IT landscape
- Overhaul IT core system
- Increase process automation
- AI solutions: product design, customer relations
-
Possible ways of optimizing operations
- Outsourcing
- Transferring operations to lower cost offshore captives or reinsurers
List the 3 sources of mortality volatility
- Trend risk
- Basis risk
- Long-term underwriting risk
Describe the 3 sources of mortality volatility:
- Trend risk
- uncertainty in future mortality improvement driven by 3 factors:
- Long-term trends (changes in medical practice, society, economy, environment, etc.)
- Annual volatility (extreme weather, disease, etc.)
- Correlation between long-term and annual trend volatility
Describe the 3 sources of mortality volatility:
- Basis risk
- uncertainty in the assumed mortality level
- Higher uncertainty in best estimate = higher basis risk
Describe the 3 sources of mortality volatility:
- Long-term underwriting risk
- uncertainty in 3 factors:
- Initial select period
- Length of grading off period for preferred or substandard
- Ultimate mortality level
Formula for the mean cost of mortality volatility using IRR
= Deterministic IRR - Stochastic Mean IRR
*Deterministic does not capture tail asymmetry (overstates expected profits)
Formula for the mean cost of mortality volatility using distributable earnings
= Deterministic PV(DistEarn) - Stochastic Mean PV(DistEarn)
*Deterministic does not capture tail asymmetry (overstates expected profits)
Describe the importance of stochastic modeling when quantifying a mortality/longevity hedge between a term product and a single premium immediate annuity
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Combined deterministic IRR does not reflect diversification
- ≈ weighted average of term and SPIA IRRs
-
Combined stochastic IRR > either standalone IRR
- Reflects mortality/longevity hedge
-
Stochastic analysis shows conservatism in deterministic margins
- Can allow insurer to adjust deterministic margins based on risk appetite
Describe how to quantify diversification savings with a mortality/longevity hedge
- Diversification Savings =
Combined PVDE - (Standalone Term PVDE + Standalone SPIA PVDE)
- Diversification savings increase near the tail
- Increasing SPIA volume increases diversification savings
List 4 common GLWB product designs
- No Ratchet
- Lookback Ratchet
- Remaining WBB Ratchet
- Performance Bonus
Describe common GLWB product designs:
- Performance Bonus:
- WBB decreases with withdrawals but never increases
Describe common GLWB product designs:
- Remaining WBB Rachet
- Like Lookback, except WBB decreases with withdrawals
Describe common GLWB product designs:
- Lookback Rachet
- WBB = highest AV ⇒ allows Wguart to increase
Describe common GLWB product designs:
- No Rachet
- WBB and Wtguar are constant all years
Describe the 4 possible transitions each anniversary when modeling a VA GLWB
- Death ⇒ contract terminates
- Alive, but no withdrawal
-
Alive and makes a withdrawal Wt <= Wguar-t
- Reduce AV by withdrawal for all designs
- No Ratchet and Lookback: withdrawal has no impact on WBB
- Remaining WBB and Performance Bonus: WBB is reduced by withdrawal
- Full surrender ⇒ contract terminates
Compare the 4 GLWB designs in terms of benefit richness
- No Ratchet is the least rich
- Ratchets and performance bonuses increase the guarantee value
- Remaining WBB design is generally the “richest” of all 4
- Becomes richer than Lookback when withdrawals are taken
- Performance Bonus results in highest early guaranteed withdrawals
List 2 financial models of the equity process for VA GLWBs
- Black-Scholes – assumes deterministic (constant) volatility
-
Heston – assumes stochastic volatility
- lambda = market price of risk (rises as σ decreases)
Either can be used for data generation or hedge position calculations
What is the key relationship of the fair guaranteed withdrawal rate?
As option value increases, FGWR decreases
Describe how each of the following impact the fair guaranteed withdrawal rate:
- Impact of volatility
- as σ increases, option value increases, FGWR decreases
- Ratchet mechanisms are the most sensitive
*Results are similar for Black-Scholes and Heston b
Describe how each of the following impact the fair guaranteed withdrawal rate:
- Impact of surrender rates
- as surrenders decrease, FGWR decreases (more benefits in force)
- *Results are similar for Black-Scholes and Heston b*
Describe how each of the following impact the fair guaranteed withdrawal rate:
- Impact of risk-free rate
- as rfdecreases, option value increases, FGWR decreases
- *Results are similar for Black-Scholes and Heston b*
Describe how each of the following impact the fair guaranteed withdrawal rate:
- Product design
- Richer ratchet = lower FGWR
- Lowest FGWRs: Remaining WBB and Performance Bonus (very similar)
*Results are similar for Black-Scholes and Heston b
Describe how the distribution of guaranteed withdrawals and trigger times vary for each of the 4 GLWB designs
- No Ratchet
-
No Ratchet: Wguar- is constant
- Greatest probability of no trigger
Describe how the distribution of guaranteed withdrawals and trigger times vary for each of the 4 GLWB designs
- Lookback
-
Lookback: Wguar- increases slightly over time
- Greater probability of trigger than No Ratchet
Describe how the distribution of guaranteed withdrawals and trigger times vary for each of the 4 GLWB designs
- Remaining WBB
-
Remaining WBB: Wguar- increases more than Lookback
- Greater probability of trigger than Lookback
Describe how the distribution of guaranteed withdrawals and trigger times vary for each of the 4 GLWB designs
- Performance Bonus
-
Performance Bonus: Wguar- peaks early, then decreases
- Highest probability of early trigger
- Least uncertainty in trigger time (PB erodes AV quickly)
Describe the characteristics of the Greeks in a GLWB hedge portfolio
- Delta
-
Delta: Negative – as St increases, GLWB value decreases
- No Ratchet delta is highest initially (guarantee doesn’t adjust)
- Ratchets have adjusting guarantees (offsets drop in put value when St rises)
Describe the characteristics of the Greeks in a GLWB hedge portfolio
- Rho
- Rho: Negative – as interest rate increases, GLWB value decreases
Describe the characteristics of the Greeks in a GLWB hedge portfolio
- Vega
-
Vega: Positive – as σ increases, GLWB value increases
- Very large for Lookback and Remaining WBB compared to others
Briefly describe hedging strategies for GLWBs
- The insurer’s cumulative gain (loss) at time t is:
Hedge Portfoliot - GLWB Valuet
- Hedge portfolio = guarantee fees invested in various positions
- Straddle option = combination of call and put (required to hedge vega)
Describe 3 metrics used to assess GLWB hedging effectiveness
- Expected profit (higher is better)
- CTE of capital required to avoid a loss (lower is better)
- CTE of final loss (lower is better)
Describe the following related to GLWB hedging:
- Riskiest GLWB designs before and after hedging
-
Riskiest products from hedge perspective:
- No hedge: No Ratchet has highest risk
- Delta/Vega hedge: Lookback and Remaining WBB are riskiest
Describe the following related to GLWB hedging:
- Choice of constant or stochastic volatility for hedging
-
Choice of data-generating model is VERY important
- Heston DG model shows much higher risk after delta hedge
- Insurer’s risk depends on whether true volatility is deterministic or stochastic
Describe the following related to GLWB hedging:
- Impact of vega hedging
-
Vega hedging further reduces risk, but. . .
- Also adds complexity: no unique solution exists
- Over-hedging is worse than no hedging at all
Describe the following related to GLWB hedging:
- Impact of delta hedging
-
Any kind of delta hedging greatly reduces risk
- BS and Heston are similar: hedging model choice not that important
How could future interest rate changes impact on insurance liabilities?
- Worst case: interest rates rise rapidly triggering capital losses and high lapses
-
Best case: interest rates bottom out, then begin rising slowly
- Insurers continue to de-risk (lower guarantees)
- Increased cost cutting and M&A activity
- Search for yield in alternative assets
-
Insurer strategies
- Assume policyholders will get more sophisticated (rational)
- Stress test
How do shifts in interest rates affect UL, SPDAs, and ULSG?
- UL is very stable
- SPDA is hurt by extreme shifts (up or down)
- ULSG is hurt most by low rates
Why is interest rate history before 1980 not useful?
- More activist central bank role beginning in 1980s
- Financial markets are more integrated
Describe how interest rate history since 1980 has evolved
-
Interest rate levels have fallen to historic lows
- Short- and long-term Treasury yields have fallen to historic lows
- Corporate bond yields low despite larger credit spread in financial crisis
- Consumer loan rates have followed the same falling pattern
-
Inflation has fallen to a stable and “predictable” 2.2%
- Inflation rate = 10-year CMT Rate - 10-Year TIPS Rate
- Yield curve shape remains normal (positive slope)
How could interest rate history be used as a guide to the future?
- Yields will likely not change dramatically in the near future
- US economic policy is no longer in a vacuum
- Inflation is more stable, predictable
- Increased global harmonization of financial markets
- Tighter spreads between US and foreign interest rates
- Exchange rates are more correlated
- Emerging countries are more harmonized with US (exception: China)
-
The 1994 yield curve’s shape ≈ current shape
- Might mean the curve would flatten after a Fed rate hike
- Caveat: central banks are more harmonized than the 1990s
Describe primary forms of fiscal policy, monetary policy, and stimulus
-
Monetary policy (the Fed)
- Quantitative easing – reduce interest rates to increase money supply
- Increase interest rates to dampen growth
- Keynesian fiscal policy – increases/decreases in spending drive economic growth/contraction
- Austerity – program of cutting government spending relative to revenue
What is the quantity theory of money?
- changes in the money supply drive price-level changes
GDP formula and all pieces
GDP = P x Y = M x V
- GDP = the gross domestic product
- P = the average price level in the economy
- Y = the output level (volume of transactions)
- M = the money supply
- V = the velocity of money (normally what you solve for)
Interpret the velocity of money
-
Economic growth occurs if M increases faster than V
- Inflation Rate + Real Output Growth Rate = Money Supply Growth Rate + Velocity Growth Rate
- BUT: Current V is very low while M is high
-
Velocity of money is affected by people’s trust
- Velocity falls if people doubt high debts will be repaid
- Velocity increases when people lose faith in the entire system
Suggest a new paradigm for modeling interest rates
- Modelers should be using negative interest rate scenarios
- Will require new tools
-
Use deterministic scenarios that tell a story
- Facilitates better strategic management decisions
- Should incorporate interest rate risk into ORSA
Describe the liquidity dilemma faced by insurers
-
Must balance long-term yield with short-term liquidity
- Longer assets have higher yield, but less liquidity
- Shorter assets have more liquidity but less yield
Define immunization
- Immunization – match asset-liability cash flows and/or durations
Describe methods used for interest rate immunization
- Macaulay duration
- Macaulay duration = average time to receive fixed cash flows
Describe methods used for interest rate immunization
- Modified duration
- Modified duration = % delta in PV of fixed CFs for a 1% delta in interest rates
Describe methods used for interest rate immunization
- Effective duration
- Effective duration allows for interest-sensitive cash flows
Describe methods used for interest rate immunization
- Key rate duration
- Key rate duration = sensitivity to change in a single point on the yield curve
List 3 forms of reinsurance-related interest rate risk
- Coinsurance
- Coinsurance – reinsurer may experience run-on-the-bank (increases counterparty risk)
List 3 forms of reinsurance-related interest rate risk
- Mod-co and FW
- Mod-co and FW – reinsurer is at risk from direct writer’s investment results
List 3 forms of reinsurance-related interest rate risk
- Retrocessions
- Retrocessions – create contagion risk for other reinsurers
Describe how life insurance products are affected by interest rate risk
- Issues with US statutory accounting
-
Issues with US statutory accounting:
- Minimum interest rate floor for valuation
- Book value-based
- Low interest rates have lead to additional reserves
- Capital gains/losses treated different between stat and GAAP
Describe how life insurance products are affected by interest rate risk
- Cash value
- Cash value products have run-on-the-bank risk
Describe how life insurance products are affected by interest rate risk
- ULSG
- ULSG profits are highly dependent on interest rates
Describe how life insurance products are affected by interest rate risk
- UL
-
UL – investment margins are a significant source of profit
- ALM is complex since policyholder AV does not equal assets backing product
- When interest rates rise, insurers tend to increase the crediting rate slowly
Describe how life insurance products are affected by interest rate risk
- VUL
- VUL – fixed funds have interest rate risk similar to UL
Describe how annuity products are affected by interest rate risk:
- Indexed annuities
- more attractive when interest rates and equity volatility are low
Describe how annuity products are affected by interest rate risk:
- VA Guarantees
- Increase in value when:
- Interest rates are low
- Equity volatility is high
Describe how annuity products are affected by interest rate risk:
- Payout Annuities
- Longevity risk exacerbates risk of low interest rates
Describe how annuity products are affected by interest rate risk:
- Deferred Annuities
- SCs and MVAs reduce interest rate risk
- When SCs expire, surrender risk is much higher
- Older contracts with high guaranteed rates will persist when interest rates are low
- Disintermediation risk – high surrenders and capital losses when interest rates spike
Describe YRT reinsurance in general
YRT is used to reinsure mortality or morbidity risk only
-
Ceding company pays:
- Reinsurance premium to reinsurer
- All policyholder benefits and expenses
-
Reinsurer pays
- Reinsured claims to reimburse ceding company
- Expense allowance
-
Ceding company takes a (small) ceded reserve credit
- = Unearned YRT premium
Which types of business is YRT reinsurance good and not good for
- Ideal if primary objective is mortality/morbidity risk transfer
- Good for term, WL, and UL (mortality risk)
- Also can be used for disability, LTCI, and critical illness (morbidity)
- Not good for transfer of lapse or investment risk—not good for annuities
- Provides relatively little surplus relief compared to coinsurance
Describe the calculation of ceded net amount at risk under YRT
- NAR = Face - Terminal Reserve (or whatever treaty defines)
- Calculated at policy level
- Ignore deficiency reserves
- YRT Premiums = YRT Rates x Ceded NAR
- Ceded DB = Reinsurer’s share of NAR
- NAR must be well documented in the treaty
- Companies must agree on method
- DB used in calculation should = DB paid on death
- NAR used should ≈ actual NAR
List the 4 YRT retention determination methods
- Pro Rata
- Level or Constant Retention
- Constant Risk Reinsured
- Formula Retention
Decrive the 4 YRT retention determination methods:
- Formula Retention
- NAR and retention are determined by initially agreed upon formula
Decrive the 4 YRT retention determination methods:
- Constant Risk Reinsured
- (rare)
- Reinsured amount = constant amount
- Retained portion of NAR falls over time
Decrive the 4 YRT retention determination methods:
- Level or Constant Retention
- Company retains a fixed amount of the NAR
- Reinsured portion of NAR falls over time
Decrive the 4 YRT retention determination methods:
- Pro Rata
- (preferred by most companies)
- Constant reinsured %
= Original Face Amount Ceded/Total Original Face Amount of Policy
- Results in very small reinsurance amounts in later durations
Formula for YRT reinsurance premiums
ReinsPrem = YRT Rate x (Ceded NAR/1000) + Cession Fee
Components of YRT reinsurance premiums.
- YRT premium rate
- May have zero first-year premium (ZFT)
- Calendar year scales
- Substandard ratings
- Riders
- Monthly renewable term (MRT) for UL
Describe the calculation of YRT reinsurance premiums:
- YRT premium rate
-
YRT premium rate = multiple of mortality table
- Vary by age, duration, sex, underwriting class
- Select periods are common (e.g. 15 years)
Describe the calculation of YRT reinsurance premiums.
- Calendar year scales
- Calendar year scales avoid year-end reinsurance reserves
Describe the calculation of YRT reinsurance premiums.
- Substandard ratings
- Substandard ratings
- Table rating: increase by multiple (e.g. 150%)
- Flat extra: may have allowance on extra premium
Describe the calculation of YRT reinsurance premiums.
- Riders
- Riders: accidental death may be reinsured separately, term riders use base
Describe the calculation of YRT reinsurance premiums.
- Monthly renewable term (MRT) for UL
- Monthly renewable term (MRT) for UL: YRT done on a monthly basis
Describe coinsurance in general
- Reinsurer has a proportionate share of:
- Direct policyholder premium
- Direct reserve
- All benefits (mortality, morbidity, lapse, surrender, investment)
Compare coinsurance to YRT
-
Cedes more premium, reserves, and benefits
- But also means reinsurer must track all these
- Coinsurance EAs may be more complicated to track
- Can be used for any type of insurance or annuities
- Provides more surplus relief than YRT
- Passes deficiency reserves to reinsurer as well