IFM Flashcards
How do you calculate the percentage change in exchange rate?
(Spot rate now - spot rate yesterday)/Spot Rate Yesterday) x 100
What factors influence exchange rates?
percentage change in the spot rate
change in the relative inflation rate
change in the relative interest rate
change in the relative income level
change in government controls
change in expectations of future exchange rates
What do nominal interest rates include?
Element of inflation
Borrow in weaker or stronger currency?
Weaker
Invest in weaker or stronger currency?
Stronger
What are the 4 methods of forecasting exchange rates?
Technical
Fundamental
Market-based
Mixed
What is the absolute forecasting error equation to evaluate a models performance to forecast exchange rates?
(forecast value – realised value)/(realised value)
Lower percentage more accurate so likely to go with.
What is Arbitrage?
Arbitrage can be loosely defined as capitalizing on a discrepancy in quoted prices to make a riskless profit.
What are the 3 types of arbitrage?
locational arbitrage
triangular arbitrage
covered interest arbitrage
What is locational arbitrage?
Locational arbitrage is possible when a bank’s selling price (ask price) is lower than another bank’s buying price (bid price) for the same currency.
What is triangular arbitrage?
When the direct route and route via another currency differ, e.g. with £100 buying $s via MYR £100 x 8.10 x 0.2 = $162 the direct rate is £100 x 1.6 = $160 there is a potential triangular (riskless) arbitrage profit…
What is covered interest arbitrage?
Covered interest arbitrage is the process of capitalizing on the interest rate differential between two countries while covering for exchange rate risk.
Covered interest arbitrage forces a relationship between forward rate premiums and interest rate differentials.
What is IRP?
As a result of market forces, the forward rate differs from the spot rate by an amount that sufficiently offsets the interest rate differential between two currencies.
Then, covered interest arbitrage is no longer feasible and the equilibrium state achieved is referred to as interest rate parity (IRP).
When does IRP HOLD?
When covered interest arbitrage is not possible or worthwhile
What are the 3 types of exchange rate fluctuation exposure?
transaction exposure
economic exposure
translation exposure
What is transaction exposure?
The degree to which the value of future cash transactions can be affected by exchange rate fluctuations is referred to as transaction exposure.
How do you measure transaction exposure?
estimate the net cash inflows or outflows in each currency
measure the potential impact of the exposure to those currencies
How do you measure economic exposure?
Economic exposure can be measured by assessing the sensitivity of the firm’s earnings to exchange rates.
This involves reviewing how the earnings forecast in the firm’s income statement changes in response to alternative exchange rate scenarios
What is economic exposure?
Economic exposure refers to the degree to which a firm’s present value of future cash flows can be influenced by exchange rate fluctuations
What is translation exposure?
The exposure of an MNC’s consolidated financial statements to exchange rate fluctuations is known as translation exposure.
Subsidiary earnings translated into the reporting currency on the consolidated income statement are subject to changing exchange rates.
How do you calculate forward premium?
F = S (1 + p )
What is the forward premium / discount of:
S = £0.60:$1, 90-day F = £0.59:$1
annualized p = F – S 360
S n
= 0.59 – 0.60 360 = –.017% a 1.7% discount
0.60 90
What is a non-deliverable forward contract (NDF)?
An NDF represents an agreement regarding a position in a specified amount of a specified currency, a specified exchange rate, and a specified future settlement date.
An NDF does not result in an actual exchange of the currencies at the future date. One party to the agreement makes a payment to the other party based on the exchange rate at the future date.
It is really no more than a contract that is closed out at maturity date.