https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/09/11/can-arctic-warming-linked-to-colder-winters/ Flashcards
It is very simple.
To get such changes in jet stream tracks one needs to alter the average gradient of tropopause height between equator and poles.
The models contain no such phenomenon.
Nor is there any way that CO2 could cause such an effect.
Increased meridionality in jet stream tracks is historically linked to cooling periods due to increased cloudiness from longer lines of air mass mixing.
When we were warming the jets were more zonal and global cloudiness declined.
The switch to increased meridionality occurred around the year 2000 which is why ‘the pause’ happened.
That coincides with reduced solar activity and the same happened in the LIA and briefly during the mid 20th century cooler period.
If it continues then cooling will begin once more.
So just another climate modellers wet dream.
They do not understand that the polar air vortex is driven by the polar photon vortex which comes directly from the sun.
Energetic solar events cause a tightening of the vortex, while weak solar activity makes for a floppy/loopy jet stream, with cold air descending into northern America, Europe and Asia and the observe warming of the Arctic circle.
Firstly, the Arctic warming is mainly linked to weaker indirect solar forcing causing a wavy jet stream (negative NAO/AO) which transports more warm humidity events into the Arctic, and drives a warmer AMO.
The 2020-2021 Arctic outbreak was primed by a Sudden Stratospheric Warming in January breaking down the polar vortex.
SSW events are more common in low solar periods, partly because their triggers are more common then.
SSW events are teleconnected to the tropical stratosphere which cools, so they are not physically confined to Arctic processes.
