HECKMANN - Risk aware decisions

Question 1

The ability of a system to return to its original state or move to a new, more desirable state after being disturbed is called robust-ness.

Answer 1

False

Question 2

Traditional risk management addresses the assessment and management of natural and man-made disasters, major disruptions and market shifts, as well as common deviations and market volatility.

Answer 2

False

Question 3

Which of the following concepts co-define resilience?

Answer 3

robustness & adaptability

Question 4

The core characteristics of supply chain risk are

Answer 4

disruptive trigger, vulnerability, time, decision maker’s objectives and attitude

Question 5

A Black Swan refers to:

Answer 5

an event that is not represented within a probability distribution

Question 6

The value-at-risk (VaR) accounts for properties of the loss distribution beyond the confidence level.

Answer 6

False

Question 7

The conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR) represents the expected loss beyond the value-at-risk (VaR).

Answer 7

True

Question 8

Suppliers with very low Time-to-survive (TTS) values indicate

Answer 8

that more accurate Time-to-recovery (TTR) evaluation and closer monitoring for risk exposure are required

Question 9

Contemporary, traditional risk analysis often refers to the risk definition R = PxS (R= risk, P = probability of an event, S = severity of an event). This definition often results in a misinterpretation of

Answer 9

probability

Question 10

The analysis of potential disruptive triggers implies:

Answer 10

the identification of those processes that are affected by the trigger.

Question 11

Suppliers with high total spend and high-performance impact are

Answer 11

strategic important suppliers that should be focused by long-term partnerships and risk- diversification contracts,

Question 12

The higher the Time-to-Survive (TTS) compared to the duration of a disruption, the higher the risk

Answer 12

False

Question 13

The value-at-risk (VaR) accounts for properties of the loss distribution beyond the confidence level of alpha

Answer 13

False

Question 14

The conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR) represents the expected loss beyond the value-at- risk (VaR)

Answer 14

True

Question 15

calculate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) at a 95% confidence level (alpha = 5%)

Answer 15

1.) Determine the cumulative probabilities: Add up probabilities of Scenarios until you reach or exceed the desired confidence level (95%)
2.) Identify the loss value at the desired cumulative probability (ablesen)
3.) VaR gefunden

Question 16

Disruptive Trigger Formel

Answer 16

Line 3: u j = 0 ∀ j ∈ S n

Question 17

TTS Disruption Impact Extension

Answer 17

Line 5: ∑ k∈A α u k ≤ cαt(n)