GS5 Flashcards
Understanding the role of debt in the financial system.
What are the similarities between a pawn shop and repo market?
Agreement where a seller agrees to buy it back from a buyer (investor) at a higher price on a specified date. No need for price discovery.
Understanding the role of debt in the financial system.
What should the information be in the money markets?
SYMMETRIC. Not necessary transparent - better if opaque.
Understanding the role of debt in the financial system.
Why is debt an optimal contract?
Because it avoids
1) a precise assessment of the collateral value at the time of signing the contract (just need to know that is is way above face value);
2) the cost of price discovery whenever debt is paid in full.
Understanding the role of debt in the financial system.
In what aspects debt is information-insensitive?
1) Debt is information-insensitive to private information if
it is deep in the money.
2) Debt is a contract which is most resilient to information acquisition.
3) The value of debt is least sensitive to public information -> debt is the best collateral
Understanding the role of debt in the financial system.
When does information-insensitivity increase?
When a) collateral is less risky b) duration of debt is reduced c) FV of debt Is reduced d) more collateral is added.
Understanding the role of debt in the financial system.
Name some examples of avoiding transparency in practice.
1) In car auctions buyers are allowed to inspect cars only externally -> increased speed of the actions and
reduced adverse selection (the value of cars is more or less the same across buyers).
2) Money market mutual funds report the Net Asset Value (NAV) only quarterly and with a 1-month lag à
opacity gives MMMFs time to adjust to fluctuations in daily NAV and prevent investors from running.
3) Coarse bond ratings promote “commonality of beliefs” -> reduced adverse selection.
4) Money is very opaque about the underlying collateral because no one knows exactly what backs up
government issued money -> all the market participants are “symmetrically ignorant”
5) During bubbles no one is likely to have private information about when prices will collapse -> symmetric ignorance can make them a safe place to park money, at least for a short period of time.
Understanding the role of debt in the financial system.
How panics are created and what are the consequences?
Panics happen when information-insensitive debt becomes information-sensitive.
Investors begin to ask questions about the underlying
collateral.
Private information becomes relevant and shatters the shared understanding and beliefs.
Understanding the role of debt in the financial system.
What drove the demand for new products and the growth of shadow banking?
1) The global savings accumulation
2) The US had sophisticated securitization technology that could activate and make better use of collateral
3) The US had a large pool of assets
Understanding the role of debt in the financial system.
What are the solutions for getting out of the crisis?
1) A crisis ends when confidence returns → back to the “no questions asked” state (Recapitalization of the banking system, “we will do whatever it takes” - lack of specific info)
2) Higher capital requirements and regular stress tests
The safe assets shortage conundrum.
Safe assets’ characteristics?
- Safe assets can be transacted without concern for adverse selection (information insensitivity)
- Safe assets have special value during economic crises (“simple” asset)
- Asset is safe if others expect it to be safe (strategic complementarity)
The safe assets shortage conundrum.
What are the aspects that determine a country’s capacity to produce safe assets?
- the level of financial development
- constraints in the financial system
- fiscal capacity of the sovereign (ability to payout bond)
- exchange rate and price stability
The safe assets shortage conundrum.
What is the reason for the shortage?
The collective growth rate of advanced economies < the world’s growth rate
The safe assets shortage conundrum.
Describe the modern version of the paradox of thrift.
With real safe rates unable to decrease further to
clear markets, demand for safe assets remained too
elevated and the economy had to slow down and
operate below its potential.
The safe assets shortage conundrum.
How a safety trap differ from a liquidity trap?
1) exit from a safety trap requires an increase in the supply of, or a reduction in the demand for,
safe assets, regardless of the demand and supply of other assets
2) very persistent or even permanent despite the presence of long-lived assets
The safe assets shortage conundrum.
What are the solutions to restore equilibrium?
1) Exchange rate appreciation of the currencies in which safe assets are denominated;
2) Issuance of public debt.
Depends on two factors:
i) the fiscal capacity of the government to borrow (& ability to commit to raising future taxes)
ii) the risk that increased provision of public safe assets may crowd out provision of private-sector safe
assets (raising taxes may reduce private sector’s capacity to issue safe assets).
2*) Pooling and trenching infrastructure investment among quasi-safe countries;
3) Production of private safe assets;
4) Reducing the (Net) Demand for Safe Assets.
The safe assets shortage conundrum.
How can banks solve the problem of holding safe assets for exchange rate stability?
Could be partially replaced by more powerful global risk-sharing arrangements (swap lines, credit facilities backed by IMF or the World Bank, and reserve sharing agreements).
The economics of structured finance.
What were the reasons for the expansion of structured finance in 2000s?
1) CDOs offered attractive yields (despite being AAA-rated) in the period of low interest rates
2) CDOs were rated using the same scales as bonds (easy to compare)
3) Strong economic growth and few defaults
4) Minimum capital requirement
The economics of structured finance.
What are the 3 parts of manufacturing?
- Pooling
- Tranching
- Overcollateralization (the degree of protection offered by the junior claims)
The economics of structured finance.
What is a key factor determining the ability to create tranches that are safer than the underlying
collateral?
The extent to which !defaults are correlated! across the underlying assets
The economics of structured finance.
What are the problematic features of CDOs?
- Structure amplifies errors (default probabilities and correlations)
- Largely diversifiable risks were substituted for highly systematic risks.
- Do not offer large enough of a yield spread to compensate for the actual systematic risks they bear.
The economics of structured finance.
Why valuation models of CDOs were biased?
1) overlap in geographic locations (actual correlations between mortgages were higher)
2) errors in assumptions about default probabilities and recovery values (fire sales drove down the asset values)
3) valuation based on wrong or not fully correct assumptions (constantly rising housing prices)
4) pricing of systematic risks in the same way as diversifiable ones
The economics of structured finance.
Who is to blame for the fall of the market?
- Credit rating agencies
- Investors (outsource due diligence; fFueling the growth of CDO market even understanding that it would end)
- Regulation (tied bank requirements to credit ratings)
Credit default swaps and the credit crisis.
What are the two main differences from insurance contract?
1) you do not have to hold the bonds to buy a credit default swap on that bond (the amount
you insure is then called the notional amount)
2) insurance contracts (mostly) are not traded - credit default swap contracts do trade over the counter
Credit default swaps and the credit crisis.
Benefits of CDS?
- increases transparency in the pricing of
credit (improved price discovery ); - reduced the cost of capital for firms;
- CDS market is often more liquid than bonds market;
- Alternative to short selling.