Global Debt Bubbles: Overview Flashcards
What is a debt bubble?
A debt bubble occurs when excessive borrowing drives the value of an asset or a set of assets far beyond their intrinsic value, often leading to a crash.
What are the main drivers of a debt bubble?
Low interest rates, overleveraging, speculation, financial innovation, lack of regulatory oversight, and global capital flows.
What role do low interest rates play in debt bubbles?
Prolonged low interest rates can lead to excessive borrowing and risk-taking, which inflates asset prices and contributes to debt bubbles.
What does overleveraging mean in the context of debt bubbles?
Overleveraging refers to borrowing more than can be reasonably repaid, often under the assumption that asset prices will keep rising.
How does speculation contribute to the formation of debt bubbles?
Speculation inflates demand for assets, driving prices beyond their intrinsic value, which can lead to a debt bubble.
How can financial innovation lead to a debt bubble?
Financial innovations like derivatives can obscure risk and encourage excessive borrowing, which contributes to debt bubbles.
Why does lack of regulatory oversight lead to debt bubbles?
Without proper regulation, lending and borrowing practices can grow unsustainable, allowing risks to build unnoticed.
What role do global capital flows play in debt bubbles?
Global capital flows can amplify local debt bubbles by providing easy access to foreign credit, which increases borrowing.
What are the four phases of a debt bubble?
The expansion (boom) phase, maturity (peak) phase, burst (bust) phase, and aftermath (correction) phase.
What happens during the expansion (boom) phase of a debt bubble?
During the expansion phase, borrowing increases due to easily accessible credit, driving up asset prices.
What is the peak phase of a debt bubble characterized by?
The peak phase occurs when debt levels reach their limit, and warning signs like rising defaults appear.
What triggers the burst (bust) phase of a debt bubble?
The burst phase is triggered when borrowers can’t service their debt or credit is cut off, causing asset prices to fall.
What happens during the correction phase after a debt bubble bursts?
During the correction phase, the economy slows down as people and businesses deleverage, often leading to a recession.
What are the economic consequences of a debt bubble burst?
Recession, deflation, government bailouts, and long-term debt overhang are common consequences.
How can asset price crashes lead to deflationary pressures?
Deflation occurs when decreased demand and asset price crashes lead to lower prices, which increases debt burdens.
Why do governments often intervene after a debt bubble bursts?
Governments often intervene with bailouts to prevent key industries from collapsing and to stabilize the economy.
What is meant by long-term debt overhang after a debt bubble bursts?
A long-term debt overhang happens when high levels of debt prevent economic growth by limiting consumption and investment.
What is the South Sea Bubble (1720)?
A speculative bubble where the stock prices of the South Sea Company rose dramatically before collapsing in 1720.
How did excessive borrowing lead to the Great Depression (1929)?
Excessive borrowing and speculation in the stock market led to the stock market crash of 1929 and the Great Depression.
What caused the Japanese asset price bubble in the 1980s?
Loose monetary policy and excessive borrowing in real estate and stocks led to the Japanese bubble, which collapsed in the early 1990s.
What led to the dot-com bubble (1997-2001)?
Speculative investment in tech companies without profits led to the dot-com bubble, which burst in the early 2000s.
What caused the Global Financial Crisis (2008)?
The 2008 crisis was caused by excessive borrowing in the housing market, driven by subprime mortgages and financial innovations like mortgage-backed securities.
How has globalization transformed debt bubbles over time?
Global capital flows and interconnected markets mean that debt bubbles in one region can have global consequences.
What is the increased role of central banks in modern debt bubbles?
Central banks manage economies through monetary policy, but tools like low interest rates can also lead to debt bubbles.
How have financial innovations contributed to more complex debt bubbles?
Financial innovations have made it harder to detect risk, and complex instruments can obscure the true scale of borrowing.
Why are emerging markets increasingly vulnerable to global debt bubbles?
Emerging markets are vulnerable due to high external debt and reliance on foreign capital, which can quickly be withdrawn during a crisis.
What are the potential sources of future debt bubbles?
Corporate debt, government debt, household debt, and climate-related debt are potential sources of future bubbles.
Why could rising corporate debt levels lead to a global financial crisis?
If corporate profits decline or interest rates rise, high corporate debt levels could trigger a wave of defaults.
How could government debt contribute to future debt bubbles?
Governments have accumulated large amounts of debt, and if confidence in their ability to repay weakens, a sovereign debt crisis could occur.
How can household debt lead to financial instability?
High household debt, especially in real estate markets, can lead to defaults and instability if housing prices crash.
What are the risks of climate-related debt bubbles?
Investments in green energy or climate-resilient infrastructure could create bubbles if returns on these investments are lower than expected.
How might technological advancements impact future debt bubbles?
Technological advancements like cryptocurrencies and decentralized finance (DeFi) could either mitigate or exacerbate future debt bubbles.
What are macroprudential policies in the context of debt bubbles?
Macroprudential policies are tools that central banks use to maintain financial stability by controlling systemic risks.
Why are central bank and regulatory responses important in managing debt bubbles?
Regulatory responses like stress testing and higher capital requirements are essential in managing and preventing debt bubbles.
How could social and environmental risks influence future debt bubbles?
Debt bubbles may be driven by inequality or environmental crises, such as speculative markets around green energy.
Why is global stability impacted by regional debt bubbles?
In a globalized world, a debt bubble in one region can impact the global economy due to interconnected capital markets.
What is the connection between inequality and debt bubbles?
Rising inequality could lead to debt-fueled consumption, making low-income households vulnerable to debt bubbles.
What are speculative markets that may arise from climate change?
Speculative markets may arise around green energy, carbon credits, or real estate in climate-resilient areas.
How do geopolitical tensions contribute to sovereign debt crises?
Geopolitical tensions and economic sanctions can disrupt global capital flows, making it harder for countries to service their debt.
