Getting Started in Technical Analysis Flashcards
General trading range information? (3)
Chart patterns inside trading ranges are irrelevant.
Never trade within a trading range.
Charts spend most time inside them, they can last for years.
Are supports/resistances exact points?
No, just tension areas.
What do breakouts from trading ranges suggest?
A price move in the direction of the breakout.
What two factors determine the significance of a trading range?
Time duration and width.
When can you use averages to extrapolate price movement?
Only in trends.
What does a price holding above/below the SMA indicate?
Strength / weakness unless it’s over-extended.
Define SMA mathematically.
SMA = S / n
S = sum of n prices n = number of prices
What is the difference between conventional and internal trendlines?
Conventional trendlines exclude price anomalies which tends to increase their accuracy.
What determines the accuracy of a trendline?
The time duration.
How do you determine a conventional trendline?
Connect the two most recent relative highs or lows.
Are trendlines / trend-channels major indicators?
No, oftentimes they must be redrawn to include price development. Only use them as minor supporting factors.
What is the head and shoulders pattern?
A triple peak with the shoulders being lower than the head. It’s a common sign of a trend reversal and is considered confirmed if the price breaks below the neckline.
What are rounded tops / bottoms?
A strong sign of an impending price move in the direction of the curve.
What is a wedge?
A long term form of price consolidation.
How to use price consolidations?
Prices tend to continue in the trend direction after the consolidation, but watch for the direction of the breakout from them. They are very reliable failed signals.
What is an island reversal?
A gap that gaps back down, a strong sign of a reversal unless it’s filled.
How do you read oscillators?
Readings above/below EQ show strength / weakness.
Draw lines excluding upper and lower 10% of readings.
Readings near or past these lines show hyperextension.
Adjust the time duration to capture the desired length of reversals.
What are oscillators?
Measurements of momentum that all function the same way. They include RSI, MACD, Stochastics, Roc, etc.
How do you read MACD?
Wait for the short term line to cross the long term. These can provide buy / sell signals.
How do you use oscillators?
Use them to set alerts / scanners then watch for price movement.
What is divergence?
Disproportionate movement of the price and oscillators. This shows potential reversals but be careful, several divergences often occur before the price reverses.
How do you compensate for trends when using oscillators?
Raise the EQ and 10% lines proportionately.
What is the relationship between the popularity and accuracy of indicators? What does this mean for the future?
Inverse, the more popular the less accurate it is. Look forward to many triple reversals in the decades to come.
What are Ross’ three scanner criteria for day trading?
Above average volume (set a %)
Up 5% or more already
Less than 50 million float
What is Ross’ flagging strategy?
Wait for a flag after you see a wide ranging candle with a strong close, buy on the first green candle afterwards. Typically used with 5 minute charts.
Should you clutter your charts with numerous drawings?
No, keep it simple “stupid.”
Do brokerages always adjust for stock splits?
No, check for: integer-proportionate jumps, news, and the company’s website.
What is a filled gap and what does it mean?
It is a failed sign where the price returns to below the gap. It suggests a likely move in the opposite direction of the gap.
What are three possible confirmation conditions you can use? What are the positive and negative effects of this?
A certain penetration %
A specific time delay
A Specific number of indicators
This will increase accuracy but decrease entry and exit price quality. Find a happy medium.
What is the only way to test strategies / systems?
In several current markets without the benefit of hindsight.
Should you have your stop determined before entering a trade?
Always! One slip-up and you can blow up your account.
How do you adjust for volatility?
Decrease your share size, even for stocks you have previously invested in.
Should you reduce leverage for related markets?
Yes, split one investment between the related markets.
What is the formula for maximum loss per trade?
(R% * PF) / (S + c + s)
R% = Max risk % , PF = Portfolio size , S = stop $ , c = commission $ , s = slippage
What are acceptable maximum risk levels and what are the benefits of this?
2% -6%. This significantly increases your chances of long term profitability.
How do you use volatility to select stocks?
Avoid extremely volatile markets, i.e pennystocks.
Where should stops be placed? What are two general methods to determine this place?
At or before a reversal. Use current / past patterns and tension areas.
Are tension areas useful for setting stops?
Extremely.
What is the principle of measured moves?
Prices tend to move in relatively equal-sized increments. If a price jumps 50 cents it will likely continue or retract about 50 cents. More reliable if multiple moves overlap.
Are chart patterns better for determining entry or exit?
Entry but they are still useful for determining exits.
What is the concept of “contrary opinion?”
90% of people will be wrong; if most people think a stock is going up, it will likely go down. Inverse applies.
Are oscillators good for setting stops?
Yes, use them as a warning to bring your stops in closer.
Does every price jump indicate a breakout?
No, they are often corrected. Do your research.
What are bull / bear traps?
False breakout signals, typically a sign of a price move in the unanticipated direction.
When are bull / bear traps considered failed?
If the price closes beyond the boundaries of the trap.
What is the most reliable indicator in technical analysis?
Failed signals.
Do failed signals dictate an immediate price move in the unanticipated direction?
No, they generally imply a move in the unanticipated direction. Sometimes prices “flutter” before reversing; the failed signal is considered intact until a close beyond the failed signal.
How do you best use failed signals?
Use them as an indicator to immediately liquidate your position and potentially reverse it if the situation warrants it.
Where do you set stops on breakouts from flags?
At the middle or opposite end of the flag.
What should you do if you see the price approaching tension areas?
Tighten up your stop
Should you set entry, exit, stop, and reversal conditions before entering a trade?
Yes, always.
What is one possible way to avoid exiting a trade prematurely?
Set your stops slightly looser initially then gradually bring them in closer as the position develops.
What is the formula for the “expected gain per trade?”
EGPT = (W% * P) - (L% * L)
W% = win % , P = average profit , L% = losing % , L = average loss
Do prices rise as fast as they fall?
Not usually, “gravity” tends to pull them down faster. Use this to time trades.
What are three benefits of diversification?
It averages out your losses, protects you from “bad luck”, and ensures your participation in trending markets.
What is the true transaction cost?
Commission plus slippage.
What is slippage?
Failure to buy or sell at your intended price.
Do different market types require different approaches?
Yes.
How do you select markets using “suitability?”
Only participate in markets that best suit your strategy.
Can failed breakouts from trendlines be used as failed signals?
Yes.
What are the three factors for selectin markets?
Diversification, volatility, and suitability.
How do you use diversification to select markets?
Choose stocks that aren’t closely related; or you can split one investment between related stocks. I.e. split one investment between two oil companies.
Do pros have trading strategies? Does specificity enhance their accuracy?
Yes and yes. The more specific the more accurate they are.
What are three ways to confirm bull / bear traps?
A pullback to the median of the signal, a pullback to the opposite end of the signal, and the delay of a reaction.
What do prices and charts symbolize?
The net result of human behavior.
How do you synthesize fundamental and technical analysis?
Use fundamentals to indicate the direction and technicals to find entry and exit points.
What are the two perspectives of the stock market?
Fundamentalists and technical analyst.
What do price charts show? (5)
Price history, patterns, major trends, entry / exit points, and volatility?
What are the four major types of charts for stocks?
bar, close-only, point and figure, and candlestick charts.
When is a trend considered no longer intact?
When it breaks below a resistance in the opposite direction.
Define uptrend.
A series of higher highs and lower lows.
Define downtrend.
A series of lower highs and lower lows.
Should you use percentages or share size when calculating past moves?
Percentages, stock splits will distort data if you use share size.
Are there reliable patterns in every chart all the time?
No, there rarely are. It’s your job to find these few predictable patterns and capitalize on them.
What are four mid-trend entry / pyramid strategies?
Enter after a 35% / 65% retracement, enter after a micro-pullback, enter after a breakout from a range or flag, enter when a long term moving average shows strength.
What are the three pyramiding rules?
Only add to winners, don’t add if your stop will yield a loss, and don’t add in increments larger than your initial investment.
Should you adjust your stop as you profit?
Yes, use a trailing stop.
Should you change your stop just because it’s getting close?
NO! That defeats the purpose of having a stop.
Are all stops based off of technical indicators?
No, sometimes you need to set a $ or % because indicators are too far out.
What are the five keys to chart analysis?
Tight stops, confirmation conditions, use fundamentals, use failed signals, and see the big picture.
What is a peak / double peak?
A standard from of tops / bottoms. It can indicate a reversal.
What are flags / pennants?
Short term forms of consolidation. Generally regarded as “pause” in a major trend.
What is a triangle formation and what are the three types?
A long term form of consolidation. Usually just a pause in a major trend. The three types are ascending, descending, and symmetrical. Watch for breakouts from these.
What is a wide ranging candle?
A candle that is significantly taller than those surrounding it. Can be a strong sign depending on the open / close.
What is thrust day?
A day that closes beyond the previous day’s high / low.
What is a reversal candlestick?
One that opens strong then reverses direction. They are more meaningful with greater magnitude.
What is a spike?
One that closes far beyond surrounding candlesticks. Its only useful if the close is strong / weak and it occurs during a trend.
What are the four types of gaps?
Common: occurs in a trading range - useless
Breakaway: first sign of a breakout - strong indicator
Runaway: occurs during a trend - shows strength
Exhaustion: occurs at the end of a trend - soon followed by a reversal
What is a gap?
A candle that opens beyond the close of the previous candle.
What are Bollinger bands?
A type of price envelope that uses standard deviation instead of a set percentage.