Geopolitical Developments

Question 1

Sino Soviet Split

Answer 1

• The Sino-Soviet split was driven by a mix of domestic, historical, and geopolitical factors. Mao viewed Khrushchev as an appeaser of the US and NATO, and a betrayer of Stalin’s legacy, while the Soviet leadership saw China as aiming to displace the USSR as the leading communist power.
• Historical resentment over Russian imperialism also played a role, as China resented the territorial concessions it had made to Russia during the 19th and early 20th centuries.
• Mao’s Great Leap Forward (1958-1960), an attempt to rapidly industrialize China, was an economic disaster. It led to widespread famine and poor-quality steel production. The USSR criticized the plan, further straining relations.
• The split deepened over military cooperation, as Mao resisted Soviet attempts to establish joint military projects, including a naval flotilla. This heightened Chinese fears of Soviet imperialism.
• In 1958, the Quemoy Crisis erupted when China bombarded the Nationalist-controlled Quemoy Islands near Taiwan without consulting the USSR. The US responded with a show of military force, raising tensions. Although the Soviets eventually supported China, the incident revealed the growing divide between the two powers.
• The split worsened during the 1959 Beijing meeting, where Khrushchev refused to support China’s nuclear ambitions and criticized its border policies with India, further alienating the PRC.
• In 1966, Mao launched the Cultural Revolution, aiming to recapture the revolutionary spirit of 1949 and purge “revisionists.” Mao linked his domestic campaign against revisionism with his anti-Soviet propaganda, framing the USSR as China’s primary foe.
• The Sino-Soviet border conflict erupted in 1969, with violent clashes over territorial disputes, particularly on Zhenbao Island along the Ussuri River. Tensions were temporarily eased after negotiations in 1969, but the split persisted.
• The split had significant global impacts, particularly in Cold War dynamics. In 1972, Mao negotiated an understanding with the US directed against the USSR, marking a major shift in alliances. Relations between China and the USSR were not fully restored until 1989, well after Mao’s death.
• The Sino-Soviet split also highlighted the ideological fracture within the communist bloc, with China positioning itself as a revolutionary alternative to Soviet “revisionism” and becoming more assertive on the global stage during the Cold War.

Question 2

Vietnam War (1965-75)

Answer 2

• Vietnam was under French colonial rule until World War II, when Japan occupied the country.
• After Japan’s defeat in 1945, Ho Chi Minh declared independence, establishing the Democratic Republic of Vietnam (DRV) in Hanoi.
• In response, the French reinstated Emperor Bao Dai and set up the state of Vietnam in the south.
• The conflict emerged between the communist North, led by Ho, and the US-backed non-communist South.
• Under President Harry Truman, the US provided covert support to the French, fearing that a communist victory would lead to a “Domino Theory” effect in Southeast Asia.
• After the 1954 Geneva Conference, the US established the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) and increased military support to South Vietnam under subsequent presidents.
• The Gulf of Tonkin incident in August 1964 provided justification for Johnson to escalate US military involvement, peaking at over 500,000 troops by 1968.
• The Tet Offensive in January 1968, a coordinated attack by North Vietnamese forces, shocked the American public and significantly turned opinion against the war.
• “My Lai Massacre” March 1968: US soldiers killed 500 unarmed Vietnamese citizens including children and families
• The Kent State shooting in 1970, where National Guardsmen killed four students during a protest, led to widespread unrest and further anti-war demonstrations.
• The Nixon Doctrine, established in 1969, shifted US policy from direct military intervention to supporting local forces against communism through training and aid.
• Amid public dissent and the war’s growing cost, Nixon began troop withdrawals, leading to the Paris Peace Accords in January 1973, despite ongoing conflicts in the region –> stipulated American withdrawal from Vietnam
• Conflict remained ongoing however until fall of Saigon

Question 3

Middle East

Answer 3

• The Middle East became a site of Cold War rivalry and proxy wars due to its position outside the superpowers’ spheres of influence.
• The 1956 Suez Crisis marked the Cold War’s introduction to the region, leading to the exit of Britain and France and creating a power vacuum.
• Lebanon and Jordan aligned with the US, while revolutionary states like Egypt and Syria, along with Palestinian groups, supported the Soviet Union.
• Israel joined the Western camp in 1962, receiving its first US aid.
• Soviet arms sales to Arab allies prompted US military support for Israel, including tanks and fighter jets in 1965 and 1966.
• In May 1967, false Soviet intelligence about Israeli troop movements led Egypt’s President Nasser to expel UN peacekeepers from the Sinai.
• Israel launched a preemptive strike on June 5, 1967, defeating Egypt, Jordan, and Syria in six days and gaining control of significant territories, including the Gaza Strip, Sinai Peninsula, West Bank, and Golan Heights.
• The US pressured Israel to cease hostilities to maintain relations with pro-US Arab nations, resulting in UN Security Council Resolution 242, which called for the return of occupied territories.
• The Yom Kippur War began on October 6, 1973, with a surprise attack by Egypt and Syria on Israeli positions.
• Initially caught off guard, Israeli forces counterattacked and advanced towards Cairo and Damascus after regrouping.
• The Soviet Union threatened military involvement, prompting the US to raise its military readiness to DEFCON 3, bringing the world close to nuclear conflict.
• The war ended in an Israeli victory but highlighted the dangers of superpower involvement in regional conflicts.
• Post-war, Soviet influence in the Middle East waned due to its inability to support Arab allies in conflicts against Israel in 1967 and 1973.
• The 1978 Camp David Accords, a peace agreement between Israel and Egypt, occurred without Soviet involvement, further weakening Soviet ties in the region.
• The March 1979 agreement established peace and marked Egypt’s shift from Soviet ally to US ally, significantly reducing Soviet influence in the Middle East.