General Thinking Tools Flashcards
Inversion
Problem solving technique where you think something backwards. Considering what we want to avoid instead of what we want to get.
Mathematics mental model.
Arguing from First Principles
First principle is a basic, foundational, self evident proposition that cannot be deduced from any other proposition or assumption.
Confirmation Bias
The tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one’s preexisting beliefs or hypotheses, while giving disproportionately less consideration to alternative possibilities.
Falsification
Modern scientific enterprise operates under the principle of falsification: A method is termed scientific if it can be stated in such a way that a certain defined result would cause it to be proved false. Pseudo-knowledge and pseudo-science operate and propagate by being unfalsifiable.
Circle of competence
Each individual tends to have an area or areas in which they really, truly know their stuff, their area of special competence. Areas not inside that circle are problematic because not only are we ignorant about them, but we may also be ignorant of our own ignorance. Thus, when we’re making decisions, it becomes important to define and attend to our special circle, so as to act accordingly.
Occam’s Razor
We should prefer the simplest explanation with the least moving parts: it is easier to falsify (see: Falsification), easier to understand, and more likely, on average, to be correct.
Hanlon’s Razor
Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by carelessness.
Second-Order Thinking
We must consider that effects have effects. The second layer of effects often dwarfs the first layer, yet often goes unconsidered.
The Map Is Not the Territory
This model tells us that there will always be an imperfect relationship between reality and the models we use to represent and understand it. This imperfection is a necessity in order to simplify.
Thought Experiments
logically carry out a test in one’s own head that would be very difficult or impossible to perform in real life. With the thought experiment as a tool, we can solve problems with intuition and logic that could not be demonstrated physically.
Probabilistic Thinking
The unknowable human world is dominated by probabilistic outcomes, as distinguished from deterministic ones. Although we cannot predict the future with great certainty, we are wise to ascribe odds to more and less probable events.
Reductio ad Absurdum
The crowbar of rational inquiry, the great lever that enforces consistency, is reductio ad absurdum
Rapoport’s Rules
How to compose a successful critical commentary:
- You should attempt to re-express your target’s position so clearly, vividly, and fairly that your target says, “Thanks, I wish I’d thought of putting it that way.”
- You should list any points of agreement (especially if they are not matters of general or widespread agreement).
- You should mention anything you have learned from your target.
- Only then are you permitted to say so much as a word of rebuttal or criticism.
One immediate effect of following these rules is that your targets will be a receptive audience for your criticism
Sturgeon’s Law
Ninety percent of everything is crap. There is a lot of mediocre work done in every field. Make sure you concentrate on the best stuff you can find, the flagship examples extolled by the leaders of the field.
Occam’s Broom
The process in which inconvenient facts are whisked under the rug by intellectually dishonest champions of one theory or another.
Scientific Method
Systematic observation, measurement, and experiment, and the formulation, testing, and modification of hypotheses.
Proxy
A variable that is not in itself directly relevant, but that serves in place of an unobservable or immeasurable variable.
Selection Bias
The selection of individuals, groups or data for analysis in such a way that proper randomization is not achieved, thereby ensuring that the sample obtained is not representative of the population intended to be analyzed
Response Bias
“A wide range of cognitive biases that influence the responses of participants away from an accurate or truthful response.
Observer Effect
Changes that the act of observation will make on a phenomenon being observed.
Systems Thinking
By taking the overall system as well as its parts into account systems thinking is designed to avoid potentially contributing to further development of unintended consequences.
Scenario Analysis
A process of analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes.
Normal Distribution
Physical quantities that are expected to be the sum of many independent processes (such as measurement errors) often have distributions that are nearly normal.
Sensitivity Analysis
The study of how the uncertainty in the output of a mathematical model or system (numerical or otherwise) can be apportioned to different sources of uncertainty in its inputs.
