General Thinking Concepts Flashcards
The Map is not the Territory
The map of reality is not reality, the description of the thing is not the thing itself. The model is not reality. Even the best maps are imperfect. That’s because they are reductions / simplifications of what they represent. If a map were to represent the territory with perfect fidelity, it would no longer be a reduction and thus would no longer be useful to us. A map can also be a snapshot of a point in time, representing something that no longer exists. This is important to keep in mind as we think through problems and make better decisions.
Circle of Competence
When ego and not competence drives what we undertake, we have blind spots. If you know what you understand, you know where you have an edge over others. When you are honest about where your knowledge is lacking you know where you are vulnerable and where you can improve. Understanding your circle of competence improves decision making and outcomes. This concept is famously used by Warren Buffet who advises to honestly define what we do know and stick to those areas. Our circle of competence can be widened, but only slowly and over time. Mistakes are most often made when straying from this discipline.
First Principles Thinking
First principles are the building blocks of knowledge - the fundemental truths of science and reality. This concept helps clarify complicated problems by separating the underlying ideas or facts from any assumptions based on them. It’s manditory to actively question every assumption we think we know about a given problem or scenario . What remains are the essentials. If you know the first principles of something, you can build the rest of your knowledge around them to produce something new. This approach was used by the philosopher Aristotle and is used now by Elon Musk and Charlie Munger.
-Often stated to be the opposite of ‘Reasoning by analogy’
Thought Experiment
What would happen if? - Defined as experiments carried out only in the imagination, thought experiments are used to investigate the nature of things. They consider some hypothesis, theory, or principle for the purpose of thinking through its consequences. Many disciplines, such as philosophy and physics, make use of thought experiments to examine what can be known. In doing so, they can open up new avenues for inquiry and exploration. Thought experiments are powerful because they help us evaluate the potential consequences of our actions, and re-examine history to make better decisions. They can help us both figure out what we really want, and the best way to get there. One of the most famous examples is Schrödinger’s cat in the field of quantum physics.
Second Order Thinking
Almost everyone can anticipate the immediate results of their actions. This type of first-order thinking is easy and safe but it’s also a way to ensure you get the same results that everyone else gets. Second-order thinking is thinking farther ahead and thinking holistically. It requires us to not only consider our actions and their immediate consequences, but the subsequent effects of those actions as well. Failing to consider the second and third order effects can unleash disaster. This principle is essential in chess as one action does not only have immediate but second and third order consequences as well.
Probabilistic Thinking
Probabilistic thinking is essentially trying to estimate, using some tools of math and logic, the likelihood of any specific outcome to certain actions. Relevant variables are first identified to estimate the pobabilies of potential outcomes. Each action can then be evaluated by the probabilites of positive and negative consequences. To take it a step further, one could use the weighted average of potential outcomes to compare different options. A good decision would made by chosing the option with the highest score. This is one of the best tools we have to improve the accuracy of our decisions. Essentially, this is what all good poker players do to evaluate their next move.
Bayesian Updating
Coming from the field of statistics, this is method of thought (named after Thomas Bayes) whereby one takes into account all prior relevant probabilities and information and then incrementally updates them as newer information arrives. This method is especially productive given the rapidly changing and complex world we live in. We must use prior odds and new information in combination to arrive at our best decisions. This is not necessarily our intuitive decision-making engine. The best way to implement this concept is to be open to new information and stay critical of our existing knowledge and assumptions.
Inversion
This thinking tool works by approaching a situation from the opposite end of the natural starting point. Most of us tend to think one way about a problem: forward. Inversion allows us to flip the problem around and think backward. Sometimes it’s good to start at the beginning, but it can be more useful to start at the end. Some people may already use this tool and call it ‘thinking backwards’, or ‘seeing it from the opposite perspective’. Examples of this could be to not only identify the outcome we want but also the outcome we do not, or Instead of asking how to do something, ask how to not do it.
Occam’s Razor
Simpler explanations are more likely to be true than complicated ones. This is the essence of Occam’s Razor, a classic principle of logic and problem-solving. Instead of wasting your time trying to disprove complex scenarios, you can make decisions more confidently by basing them on the explanation that has the fewest moving parts.
When presented with competing hypotheses to solve a problem, one should select the solution with the fewest assumptions.
To apply this: Determine how many assumptions and conditions are required for each explanation to be correct. The explanation with the fewest non-evidence based assumptions and the fewest conditions is usually correct.
Example: It is raining and I saw a bright flash through my curtains. Of possible explanations a) There was lightning or b) Someone is trying to take pictures of me in the house, explanation “a” is more likely.
Hanlon’s Razor
This states that we should not attribute to malice that which is more easily explained by stupidity. Put simply, don’t assume bad intentions over neglect and misunderstanding. In a complex world, using this model helps us avoid paranoia, cynisicm, and the “fundamental attribution error”. This model reminds us that people do make mistakes. It demands that we ask if there is another reasonable explanation for the events that have occurred. The explanation most likely to be right is the one that contains the least amount of intent. As Dale Carnegie, author of “How to Make Friends and Influence People,” said, “90 percent of all management problems are caused by miscommunication.” -
Deduction vs. Induction
Deduction in research is the process of forming a general theory or hypothesis and then testing and (dis-/)confirming it in observation. In daily life, it can also mean making a specific conclusion based on general models and facts already known to be true.
Induction, conversely, is the process of developing theories and concepts based on observations and empirical data. In daily life, it can also mean creating models and theories based on specific data or experiences.
Both methods are essential for research, science, inventions, and solutions. However, If the fundamental assumptions are wrong, deduction will lead to false conclusions - just as induction will if the observations don’t accurately represent reality.
