GEL 001 MIDTERM 2 Flashcards
Weather
Weather consists of the short-term (minutes to months) changes in the atmosphere. Most people think of weather in terms of
temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloudiness, brightness, and wind.
In most places, weather can change from minute-to-minute, hour-to-hour, day-to-day, and season-to-
season.
Climate
is the average of weather over time and space. NASA defines climate as the average weather for a particular region and time period, usually taken over 30-years.
Climate change
refers to a broad range of global phenomena created predominantly by burning fossil fuels, which add heat-trapping gases to Earth’s atmosphere. These phenomena include increased temperature trends (i.e., ‘global warming’), but also encompass changes such as sea-level rise; ice-mass loss in Greenland, Antarctica, the Arctic and mountain glaciers worldwide; shifts in ecological zones; expansion of deserts, and an increase in extreme weather events.
What’s the connection between CO2 and global temperature?
CO2 composes a very small percentage of Earth’s modern atmospheric composition (~0.04%), but
because it traps outgoing heat energy as a greenhouse gas it plays an outsized role in influencing
planetary climate
- we need CO2 (and other greenhouse gases) to make our planet temperate and livable. Without it,
freshwater would freeze, making life difficult if not impossible.
Earth’s average surface temperature
Earth’s average surface temperature is 15°C (59°F), the same as the mean annual temperature of San Francisco. Earth is not only habitable, it’s a relatively pleasant place to live.
Without its atmosphere and natural greenhouse effect, Earth’s average surface temperature
Without its atmosphere and natural greenhouse effect, Earth’s average surface temperature would be -18°C (0°F), far below freezing So without an atmosphere with greenhouse gases (H2O, CO2, CH4, several others), Earth would be 33°C (59°F) cooler than the observed value. (15C - -18C = 33°C) Earth would be an icy, desolate world.
Solar radiation from the Sun is emitted as “shortwave” energy
Of the 100% of solar radiation that enters our upper atmosphere, ~30% is reflected back to space by clouds, scattered by atmospheric gases, and reflected by the Earth’s surface (from the high albedo of
ice and snow, mainly).
- the remaining 70% of solar radiation is absorbed by the Earth System where it powers the winds, weather patterns, ocean currents, and other processes in the hydrologic cycle, as well as
photosynthesis.
Solar radiation energy used
the energy that is absorbed and used by the Earth System eventually ends up as heat, which is reradiated back toward space as “longwave” (infrared) radiation.
greenhouse gases absorbed heat energy
in the atmosphere, part of the reradiated heat energy is absorbed by greenhouse gases (such as H2O, CO2, CH4, and many others) and is re-radiated back down toward the surface, warming the planet and
maintaining comfortable temperatures for life.
Greenhouse effect
Solar radiation from the Sun creating “”shortwave” & “long wave” energy
natural greenhouse effect
in the atmosphere, part of the reradiated heat energy is absorbed by greenhouse gases (such as H2O, CO2, CH4, and many others) and is re-radiated back down toward the surface, warming the planet and maintaining comfortable temperatures for life.
This is the natural greenhouse effect that warms our planet 33°C beyond what it otherwise would be without heat-trapping gases. (Greenhouse gases act somewhat like the panes of glass on a greenhouse.)
The greenhouse effect is a natural process that enables life to exist on Earth
But the natural greenhouse effect is being super-charged by the rapid addition of CO2 to the atmosphere due to the combustion of fossil fuels (as well as deforestation). Our planetary thermostat is highly sensitive to changes in CO2 (as you saw in the ice core data where temperature and CO2 change in concert with one another)
What are greenhouse gases and where do they come from?
-Water vapor
-CO2
-Methane (CH4)
-Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
Water vapor
is continuously recycled over very short time scales through the hydrologic cycle, transferring heat energy within the Earth system. Water vapor is by far the most powerful greenhouse gas in terms of its heat-absorbing capability. But it cycles through the Earth system continuously, without much excess accumulation in the atmosphere.
CO2
is continuously recycled through the biosphere, with no net gain or loss. Natural sources of CO2 are volcanism, respiration from animals (like you and me) as well as from fungi and microbes, naturally occurring wildfires, and outgassing from the ocean. Fossil-fuel burning and deforestation are the modern sources of excess atmospheric CO2.
Methane
is produced biologically by microbes that live in oxygen-poor environments, such as the black mud of ponds and rice paddies, and the guts of cattle and termites. Massive amounts are released by leaks from natural gas wells and pipelines, as well as from the intentional flaring of natural gas from oil wells. The average atmospheric lifetime for a CH4 molecule is about a decade before it converts to CO2. CH4 is about 25 times more powerful than CO2 as a greenhouse gas.
Nitrous oxide
is the natural byproduct of microbes in soils and the ocean, but anthropogenic sources are primarily from the use of nitrogen fertilizer for agriculture to replenish soil after woodlands and rainforests are cut. These human sources have increased the flow of N2O into the atmosphere by 40–50% over pre-industrial levels. (300 x more effective at trapping heat than CO2 over 100 year time spans)
How do humans influence the global greenhouse effect?
Global Average Temperature Anomaly 1850-2023
The average global temperature on Earth has increased by about 1.4°C (2.3°F) since the Industrial Revolution of the mid-19th century and 1°C (1.8°F) since the 1970s
The plot shows that temperatures vary from year to year, with relatively stable or even cooling phases lasting a few years. But the long-term trend is toward a warming planet. Over the last few years, the rate of warming appears to be accelerating. It may be just a fluctuation, but it also may be a warning sign.
How do humans influence the global greenhouse effect?
Atmospheric CO2 and Global Temperature since Industrial Revolution
Atmospheric CO2 is the primary driver of global temperature since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution (~1850)
- carbon dioxide (and other greenhouse gases) have been accumulating in the atmosphere, increasing carbon dioxide levels by 30% (from about 290 ppm in 1880 to 418 ppm in Oct 2023) (ppm = parts per million)
- the combustion of fossil fuels since the Industrial Revolution as well as intentional deforestation for agriculture and ranching are the dominant sources of the rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 content.
- the excess CO2 is enhancing the natural greenhouse effect and making our planet warmer.
Atmospheric CO2 content is rising exponentially at an unprecedented rate, much faster than natural, pre-human increases in CO2 in the geologic past
CO2 concentrations have been much higher in the geologic past and were caused by natural mechanisms (e.g., volcanism, weathering), but the rate of increase was very slow relative to today’s extraordinarily rapid pace
Global warming
Is an enhanced greenhouse effect triggered by a combination of fossil fuel combustion and deforestation that release greenhouse gases. It is best expressed by the upward trend in global temperatures during the 20th century, most notably since the 1970s.
What level of CO2 might we expect in the near future?
The rate of modern CO2 increase is >10 times faster than during past interglacial warmings. It may be that humans, through the rapid burning of fossil fuels along with deforestation, are delaying
the expected natural swing back into a glacial phase. Perhaps we’re creating some sort of human-induced “super-interglacial” period?
projecting the current temperature trend into the future (red dotted line) suggests that global temperatures may rise by 2 to 4°C (3.6 to 7.2°F) by the year 2100, a rate of increase that would be very difficult for human civilization and the biosphere to adapt to
- it should be evident that the rate of temperature change in the modern world is unprecedented in the past 22,000 years (and is unprecedented in all of Earth history)
Consequences of a warming planet
- Loss of continental ice mass
- increase in ocean heat content
- rising sea level
-extreme weather events
Loss of continental ice mass
Remember that glaciers and ice sheets are physical indicators of climate change, growing during cold phases and shrinking during warm phases.
Both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass, as measured by satellites and on-the-ground measurements. The mass is mostly being lost along the margins as the ice comes in contact
with warmer ocean water along the coastlines. (Gt = billion tons)
Most mountain glaciers are receding worldwide due to the warming planet, as well.
Increase in ocean heat content
The world ocean absorbs more than 90% of the Earth’s net heat gain due to greenhouse gases. (water holds heat much better than the atmosphere)
- measurements are made from >2000 robotic buoys that constantly record ocean temperatures and other variables between sea level and 2000 m depths
- since the late 1980s, Earth’s oceans warmed at a rate eight times faster than in the preceding decades
- warmer water provides more energy for tropical storms, increasing the intensity and longevity of hurricanes and typhoons.
- warmer oceans also affect sea level because as the water warms it expands, causing the oceans to lap up onto the edges of continents. (called “thermal expansion”)
Rising sea level
Water from melting ice sheets and mountain glaciers is entering the oceans, causing sea level to rise. When thermal expansion is added in, global sea level has risen >90 mm (3.5”) since 1993 when dedicated satellite measurements began.
- since 1900, sea level has risen 13-20 cm (~5-8 inches)
Sea level has been relatively stable over the past 6000 years, as determined from sediment cores and corals. Reliable tide gauge measurements began around 1880 and show an acceleration of sea level rise.
- projections of sea level rise to the year 2100 range from half a foot (at the optimistic low end) to 6.6 feet (at the pessimistic high end)
- ~400 million people live within 1 meter of sea level
- rising sea levels will cause a mass migration inland, mostly by the world’s poorest people who don’t have the means to cope with rising seas