Gabriel Weinberg's List Flashcards
Hanlon’s Razor
Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by carelessness
Occam’s Razor
Among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected
Cognitive Biases
Tendencies to think in certain ways that can lead to systematic deviations from a standard of rationality or good judgments
Arguing from First Principle
A first principle is a basic, foundational, self-evident proposition or assumption that cannot be deduced from any other proposition or assumption
Proximate vs Root Cause
A proximate cause is an event which is closest to, or immediately responsible for causing, some observed result; this exists in contrast to a higher-level ultimate cause (or distal cause) which is usually thought of as the ‘real’ reason something occurred
Systems Thinking
By taking the overall system as well as its parts into account systems thinking is designed to avoid potentially contributing to further development of unintended consequences
Scenario Analysis
A process of analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes
Power Law
A functional relationship between two quantities, where a relative change in one quantity results in a proportional relative change in the other quantity, independent of the initial size of those quantities: one quantity varies as a power of another
Normal Distribution
A very common continuous probability distribution…Physical quantities that are expected to be the sum of many independent processes (such as measurement errors) often have distributions that are nearly normal
Sensitivity Analysis
The study of how the uncertainty in the output of a mathematical model or system (numerical or otherwise) can be apportioned to different sources of uncertainty in its inputs
Cost-Benefit Analysis
A systematic approach to estimating the strengths and weaknesses of alternatives that satisfy transactions, activities or functional requirements for a business
Heavy-Tailed Distribution
Probability distributions whose tails are not exponentially bounded
Simulation
The imitation of the operation of a real-world process or system over time
Pareto Efficency
A state of allocation of resources in which it is impossible to make any one individual better off without making at least one individual worse off…A Pareto improvement is defined to be a change to a different allocation that makes at least one individual better off without making any other individual worse off, given a certain initial allocation of goods among a set of individuals
Lateral Thinking
Solving problems through an indirect and creative approach, using reasoning that is not immediately obvious and involving ideas that may not be obtainable by using only traditional step-by-step logic
Divergent Thinking vs Convergent Thinking
Divergent thinking is a thought process or method used to generate creative ideas by exploring many possible solutions; it is often used in conjunction with its cognitive opposite, convergent thinking, which follows a particular set of logical steps to arrive at one solution, which in some cases is a ‘correct’ solution
Critical Mass
In social dynamics, critical mass is a sufficient number of adopters of an innovation in a social system so that the rate of adoption becomes self-sustaining and creates further growth
Activation Energy
The minimum energy which must be available to a chemical system with potential reactants to result in a chemical reaction
Catalyst
A substance which increases the rate of a chemical reaction
Leverage
The force amplification achieved by using a tool, mechanical device or machine system
Crowdsourcing
The process of obtaining needed services, ideas, or content by soliciting contributions from a large group of people, especially an online community, rather than from employees or suppliers
Structure of Scientific Revolutions
An episodic model in which periods of such conceptual continuity in normal science were interrupted by periods of revolutionary science. The discovery of “anomalies” during revolutions in science leads to new paradigms. New paradigms then ask new questions of old data, move beyond the mere “puzzle-solving” of the previous paradigm, change the rules of the game and the “map” directing new research.
Scientific Method
Systematic observation, measurement, and experiment, and the formulation, testing, and modification of hypotheses
Proxy
A variable that is not in itself directly relevant, but that serves in place of an unobservable or immeasurable variable; for a variable to be a good proxy, it must have a close correlation, not necessarily linear, with the variable of interest
Selection Bias
The selection of individuals, groups or data for analysis in such a way that proper randomization is not achieved, thereby ensuring that the sample obtained is not representative of the population intended to be analyzed
Response Bias
A wide range of cognitive biases that influence the responses of participants away from an accurate or truthful response
Observer Effect
Changes that the act of observation will make on a phenomenon being observed
Survivorship Bias
The logical error of concentrating on the people or things that ‘survived’ some process and inadvertently overlooking those that did not because of their lack of visibility
Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle
A fundamental limit to the precision with which certain pairs of physical properties of a particle, known as complementary variables, such as position x and momentum p, can be known
Order of Magnitude
An order-of-magnitude estimate of a variable whose precise value is unknown is an estimate rounded to the nearest power of ten
First Order vs Second Order Effects
First order effects directly follow from a cause, while second order effects follow from first order effects
False Positives and False Negatives
A false positive error, or in short false positive, commonly called a ‘false alarm’, is a result that indicates a given condition has been fulfilled, when it actually has not been fulfilled…A false negative error, or in short false negative, is where a test result indicates that a condition failed, while it actually was successful, i.e. erroneously no effect has been assumed.
Confidence Interval
Confidence intervals consist of a range of values (interval) that act as good estimates of the unknown population parameter; however, the interval computed from a particular sample does not necessarily include the true value of the parameter
Bayes’ Theorem
Describes the probability of an event, based on conditions that might be related to the event. For example, suppose one is interested in whether a person has cancer, and knows the person’s age. If cancer is related to age, then, using Bayes’ theorem, information about the person’s age can be used to more accurately assess the probability that they have cancer.
Regression to the Mean
The phenomenon that if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on its second measurement
Inflection Point
A point on a curve at which the curve changes from being concave (concave downward) to convex (concave upward), or vice versa
Simpson’s Paradox
A paradox in probability and statistics, in which a trend appears in different groups of data but disappears or reverses when these groups are combined
Business Case
Captures the reasoning for initiating a project or task. It is often presented in a well-structured written document, but may also sometimes come in the form of a short verbal argument or presentation
Opportunity Cost
The value of the best alternative forgone where, given limited resources, a choice needs to be made between several mutually exclusive alternatives. Assuming the best choice is made, it is the ‘cost’ incurred by not enjoying the benefit that would have been had by taking the second best available choice
Intuition
Personal experience coded into your personal neural network, which means your intuition is dangerous outside the bounds of your personal experience
Local vs. Global Optimum
A local optimum of an optimization problem is a solution that is optimal (either maximal or minimal) within a neighboring set of candidate solutions; this is in contrast to a global optimum, which is the optimal solution among all possible solutions, not just those in a particular neighborhood of values
Decision Tree
A decision support tool that uses a tree-like graph or model of decisions and their possible consequences, including chance event outcomes, resource costs, and utility
Sunk Cost
A cost that has already been incurred and cannot be recovered
Availability Bias
People tend to heavily weigh their judgments toward more recent information, making new opinions biased toward that latest news
Confirmation Bias
The tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one’s preexisting beliefs or hypotheses, while giving disproportionately less consideration to alternative possibilities
Loss Aversion
People’s tendency to strongly prefer avoiding losses to acquiring gains
Ancedotal
Using a personal experience or an isolated example instead of a sound argument or compelling evidence
False Cause
Presuming that a real or perceived relationship between things means that one is the cause of the other
Straw Man
Misrepresenting someone’s argument to make it easier to attack
Plausible
Thinking that just because something is plausible means that it is true
Likely
Thinking that just because something is possible means that it is likely
Appeal to Emotion
Manipulating an emotional response in place of a valid or compelling argument
Ad Hominem
Attacking your opponent’s character or personal traits in an attempt to undermine their argument
Slippery Slope
Asserting that if we allow A to happen, then Z will eventually happen too, therefore A should not happen
Black or White
When two alternative states are presented as the only possibilities, when in fact more possibilities exist
Bandwagon
Appealing to popularity or the fact that many people do something as an attempted form of validation
The Third Story
The Third Story is one an impartial observer, such as a mediator, would tell; it’s a version of events both sides can agree on
Active Listening
Requires that the listener fully concentrates, understands, responds and then remembers what is being said
Trade-Offs
A situation that involves losing one quality or aspect of something in return for gaining another quality or aspect
Incentives
Something that motivates an individual to perform an action
Forcing Function
A forcing function is any task, activity or event that forces you to take action and produce a result
Pygmalion Effect
The phenomenon whereby higher expectations lead to an increase in performance
Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement (BATNA)
The most advantageous alternative course of action a party can take if negotiations fail and an agreement cannot be reached
Zero-sum vs Non-zero-sum
A zero-sum game is a mathematical representation of a situation in which each participant’s gain (or loss) of utility is exactly balanced by the losses (or gains) of the utility of the other participant(s)…In contrast, non-zero-sum describes a situation in which the interacting parties’ aggregate gains and losses can be less than or more than zero.” (related: win-win — “A win–win strategy is a conflict resolution process that aims to accommodate all disputants.
Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR)
Dispute resolution processes and techniques that act as a means for disagreeing parties to come to an agreement short of litigation.” (related: mediation, arbitration)
Prisoner’s Dilemma
A standard example of a game analyzed in game theory that shows why two completely ‘rational’ individuals might not cooperate, even if it appears that it is in their best interests to do so
Preserving Optionality
A strategy of keeping options open and fluid, fighting the urge to make choices too soon, before all of the uncertainties have been resolved
Tyranny of Small Decisions
A situation where a series of small, individually rational decisions can negatively change the context of subsequent choices, even to the point where desired alternatives are irreversibly destroyed
Precautionary Principle
If an action or policy has a suspected risk of causing harm to the public, or to the environment, in the absence of scientific consensus (that the action or policy is not harmful), the burden of proof that it is not harmful falls on those taking an action that may or may not be a risk
Short-termism
Short-termism refers to an excessive focus on short-term results at the expense of long-term interests
Unintended Consequences
Outcomes that are not the ones foreseen and intended by a purposeful action
Streisand Effect
The phenomenon whereby an attempt to hide, remove, or censor a piece of information has the unintended consequence of publicizing the information more widely, usually facilitated by the Internet
Cobra Effect
When an attempted solution to a problem actually makes the problem worse
Introversion vs Extraversion
Extraversion tends to be manifested in outgoing, talkative, energetic behavior, whereas introversion is manifested in more reserved and solitary behavior. Virtually all comprehensive models of personality include these concepts in various forms
IQ vs EQ
IQ is a total score derived from one of several standardized tests designed to assess human intelligence
EQ is the capacity of individuals to recognize their own, and other people’s emotions, to discriminate between different feelings and label them appropriately, and to use emotional information to guide thinking and behavior
Growth Mindset vs Fixed Mindset
Those with a ‘fixed mindset’ believe that abilities are mostly innate and interpret failure as the lack of necessary basic abilities, while those with a ‘growth mindset’ believe that they can acquire any given ability provided they invest effort or study
Hindsight Bias
The inclination, after an event has occurred, to see the event as having been predictable, despite there having been little or no objective basis for predicting it
Pollyanna Principle
Tendency for people to remember pleasant items more accurately than unpleasant ones
Organizational Debt
All the people/culture compromises made to ‘just get it done’ in the early stages of a startup
Generalist vs Specialist
A generalist is a person with a wide array of knowledge, the opposite of which is a specialist.” (related: hedgehog vs fox — “A fox knows many things, but a hedgehog one important thing)
Consequence vs Conviction
Where there is low consequence and you have very low confidence in your own opinion, you should absolutely delegate. And delegate completely, let people make mistakes and learn. On the other side, obviously where the consequences are dramatic and you have extremely high conviction that you are right, you actually can’t let your junior colleague make a mistake.
Peter Principle
The selection of a candidate for a position is based on the candidate’s performance in their current role, rather than on abilities relevant to the intended role. Thus, employees only stop being promoted once they can no longer perform effectively, and ‘managers rise to the level of their incompetence.
Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs
Maslow used the terms ‘physiological’, ‘safety’, ‘belongingness’ and ‘love’, ‘esteem’, ‘self-actualization’, and ‘self-transcendence’ to describe the pattern that human motivations generally move through… [though there is] little evidence for the ranking of needs that Maslow described or for the existence of a definite hierarchy at all.
Dunbar Number
A suggested cognitive limit to the number of people with whom one can maintain stable social relationships..with a commonly used value of 150
Commandos vs Infantry vs Police
Three distinct groups of people that define the lifetime of a company: Commandos, Infantry, and Police: Whether invading countries or markets, the first wave of troops to see battle are the commandos…Grouping offshore as the commandos do their work is the second wave of soldiers, the infantry…But there is still a need for a military presence in the territory they leave behind, which they have liberated. These third-wave troops hate change. They aren’t troops at all but police.
Technical Debt
A concept in programming that reflects the extra development work that arises when code that is easy to implement in the short run is used instead of applying the best overall solution
Binary Search
A search algorithm that finds the position of a target value within a sorted array. It compares the target value to the middle element of the array; if they are unequal, the half in which the target cannot lie is eliminated and the search continues on the remaining half until it is successful.
Divide and Conquer
Recursively breaking down a problem into two or more sub-problems of the same or related type, until these become simple enough to be solved directly. The solutions to the sub-problems are then combined to give a solution to the original problem.
Design Pattern
The re-usable form of a solution to a design problem
Dark Pattern
User interfaces designed to trick people
Moore’s Law
The observation that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years
Metcalfe’s Law
The value of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system
Framing
With the same information being used as a base, the ‘frame’ surrounding the issue can change the reader’s perception without having to alter the actual facts
Cialdini’s Six Principles of Influence
Reciprocity: People tend to return a favor
Commitment: If people commit…they are more likely to honor that commitment
Social Proof: People will do things they see other people are doing
Authority: People will tend to obey authority figures
Liking: People are more easily persuaded by people they like
Scarcity: Perceived scarcity will generate demand
Paradox of Choice
Eliminating consumer choices can greatly reduce anxiety for shoppers
Related: Hick’s Law - increasing the number of choices will increase the decision time logarithmically
Technology Adoption Lifecycle
Describes the adoption or acceptance of a new product or innovation, according to the demographic and psychological characteristics of defined adopter groups. The process of adoption over time is typically illustrated as a classical normal distribution or “bell curve”. The model indicates that the first group of people to use a new product is called ‘innovators’, followed by ‘early adopters’. Next come the early majority and late majority, and the last group to eventually adopt a product are called ‘laggards’.
Jobs to be Done
Consumers usually don’t go about their shopping by conforming to particular segments. Rather, they take life as it comes. And when faced with a job that needs doing, they essentially ‘hire’ a product to do that job.
Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD)
A disinformation strategy used in sales, marketing, public relations, politics and propaganda. FUD is generally a strategy to influence perception by disseminating negative and dubious or false information and a manifestation of the appeal to fear.
Supply and Demand
An economic model of price determination in a market. It concludes that in a competitive market, the unit price for a particular good, or other traded item such as labor or liquid financial assets, will vary until it settles at a point where the quantity demanded (at the current price) will equal the quantity supplied (at the current price), resulting in an economic equilibrium for price and quantity transacted.
Winner Take All Market
A market that tends towards one dominant player
Two Sided Market
Economic platforms having two distinct user groups that provide each other with network benefits
Barriers to Entry
A cost that must be incurred by a new entrant into a market that incumbents don’t or haven’t had to incur
Price Elasticity
The measurement of how responsive an economic variable is to a change in another. It gives answers to questions such as ‘If I lower the price of a product, how much more will sell?
Market Power
The ability of a firm to profitably raise the market price of a good or service over marginal cost
Conspicuous Consumption
The spending of money on and the acquiring of luxury goods and services to publicly display economic power.
Veblen goods
Types of luxury goods, such as expensive wines, jewelry, fashion-designer handbags, and luxury cars, which are in demand because of the high prices asked for them
Comparative Advantage
An agent has a comparative advantage over another in producing a particular good if they can produce that good at a lower relative opportunity cost or autarky price, i.e. at a lower relative marginal cost prior to trade
Sustainable Competitive Advantage
Structural factors that allow a firm to outcompete its rivals for many years
Core Competency
A harmonized combination of multiple resources and skills that distinguish a firm in the marketplace
Strategy vs Tactics
Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.
Sphere of Influence
A spatial region or concept division over which a state or organization has a level of cultural, economic, military, or political exclusivity, accommodating to the interests of powers outside the borders of the state that controls it
Unknown Unknowns
Known unknowns refers to ‘risks you are aware of, such as cancelled flights….’ Unknown unknowns are risks that ‘come from situations that are so out of this world that they never occur to you
Switching Costs
The costs associated with switching suppliers
Network Effects
The effect that one user of a good or service has on the value of that product to other people. When a network effect is present, the value of a product or service is dependent on the number of others using it
Economies of Scale
The cost advantages that enterprises obtain due to size, output, or scale of operation, with cost per unit of output generally decreasing with increasing scale as fixed costs are spread out over more units of output.
Two-Front War
A war in which fighting takes place on two geographically separate fronts
Flypaper Theory
The idea that it is desirable to draw enemies to a single area, where it is easier to kill them and they are far from one’s own vulnerabilities
Fighting the Last War
Using strategies and tactics that worked successfully in the past, but are no longer as useful
Rumsfeld’s Rule
You go to war with the Army you have. They’re not the Army you might want or wish to have at a later time.
Joy’s Law
No matter who you are, most of the smartest people work for someone else. It’s better to create an ecology that gets all the world’s smartest people toiling in your garden for your goals. If you rely solely on your own employees, you’ll never solve all your customers’ needs.
Trojan Horse
After a fruitless 10-year siege, the Greeks constructed a huge wooden horse, and hid a select force of men inside. The Greeks pretended to sail away, and the Trojans pulled the horse into their city as a victory trophy. That night the Greek force crept out of the horse and opened the gates for the rest of the Greek army, which had sailed back under cover of night. The Greeks entered and destroyed.
Empty Fort Strategy
Involves using reverse psychology (and luck) to deceive the enemy into thinking that an empty location is full of traps and ambushes, and therefore induce the enemy to retreat
Exit Strategy
A means of leaving one’s current situation, either after a predetermined objective has been achieved, or as a strategy to mitigate failure
Boots on the Ground
The belief that military success can only be achieved through the direct physical presence of troops in a conflict area
Winning Hearts and Minds
In which one side seeks to prevail not by the use of superior force, but by making emotional or intellectual appeals to sway supporters of the other side
Mutually Assured Destruction
In which a full-scale use of nuclear weapons by two or more opposing sides would cause the complete annihilation of both the attacker and the defender. It is based on the theory of deterrence, which holds that the threat of using strong weapons against the enemy prevents.
Containment
A military strategy to stop the expansion of an enemy. It is best known as the Cold War policy of the United States and its allies to prevent the spread of communism abroad
Winning a Battle but Losing the War
A poor strategy that wins a lesser (or sub-) objective but overlooks and loses the true intended objective
Beachhead
A temporary line created when a military unit reaches a landing beach by sea and begins to defend the area while other reinforcements help out until a unit large enough to begin advancing has arrived
Proxy War
A conflict between two nations where neither country directly engages the other
Social vs Market Norms
People are happy to do things occasionally when they are not paid for them. In fact there are some situations in which work output is negatively affected by payment of small amounts of money.
Information Asymmetry
The study of decisions in transactions where one party has more or better information than the other
Adverse Selection
When traders with better private information about the quality of a product will selectively participate in trades which benefit them the most
Moral Hazard
When one person takes more risks because someone else bears the cost of those risks
Externalities
An externality is the cost or benefit that affects a party who did not choose to incur that cost or benefit
Tragedy of the Commons
A situation within a shared-resource system where individual users acting independently according to their own self-interest behave contrary to the common good of all users by depleting that resource through their collective action
Free Rider Problem
When those who benefit from resources, goods, or services do not pay for them, which results in an under-provision of those goods or services
Coase Theorem
If trade in an externality is possible and there are sufficiently low transaction costs, bargaining will lead to a Pareto efficient outcome regardless of the initial allocation of property
Deadweight Loss
A loss of economic efficiency that can occur when equilibrium for a good or service is not achieved or is not achievable
Deliberate Practice
How expert one becomes at a skill has more to do with how one practices than with merely performing a skill a large number of times
Imposter Syndrome
High-achieving individuals marked by an inability to internalize their accomplishments and a persistent fear of being exposed as a ‘fraud’
Dunning-Kruger Effect
Relatively unskilled persons suffer illusory superiority, mistakenly assessing their ability to be much higher than it really is…[and] highly skilled individuals may underestimate their relative competence and may erroneously assume that tasks which are easy for them are also easy for others
Spacing Effect
The phenomenon whereby learning is greater when studying is spread out over time, as opposed to studying the same amount of time in a single session
Focus on High-Leverage Activities
Leverage should be the central, guiding metric that helps you determine where to focus your time
Eisenhower Decision Matrix
What is important is seldom urgent, and what is urgent is seldom important.”, “The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now.
Murphy’s Law
Anything that can go wrong, will
Hofstadter’s Law
It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter’s Law
Parkinson’s Law
Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion
Gate’s Law
Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years
