Gabriel Weinberg's List Flashcards
Hanlon’s Razor
Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by carelessness
Occam’s Razor
Among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected
Cognitive Biases
Tendencies to think in certain ways that can lead to systematic deviations from a standard of rationality or good judgments
Arguing from First Principle
A first principle is a basic, foundational, self-evident proposition or assumption that cannot be deduced from any other proposition or assumption
Proximate vs Root Cause
A proximate cause is an event which is closest to, or immediately responsible for causing, some observed result; this exists in contrast to a higher-level ultimate cause (or distal cause) which is usually thought of as the ‘real’ reason something occurred
Systems Thinking
By taking the overall system as well as its parts into account systems thinking is designed to avoid potentially contributing to further development of unintended consequences
Scenario Analysis
A process of analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes
Power Law
A functional relationship between two quantities, where a relative change in one quantity results in a proportional relative change in the other quantity, independent of the initial size of those quantities: one quantity varies as a power of another
Normal Distribution
A very common continuous probability distribution…Physical quantities that are expected to be the sum of many independent processes (such as measurement errors) often have distributions that are nearly normal
Sensitivity Analysis
The study of how the uncertainty in the output of a mathematical model or system (numerical or otherwise) can be apportioned to different sources of uncertainty in its inputs
Cost-Benefit Analysis
A systematic approach to estimating the strengths and weaknesses of alternatives that satisfy transactions, activities or functional requirements for a business
Heavy-Tailed Distribution
Probability distributions whose tails are not exponentially bounded
Simulation
The imitation of the operation of a real-world process or system over time
Pareto Efficency
A state of allocation of resources in which it is impossible to make any one individual better off without making at least one individual worse off…A Pareto improvement is defined to be a change to a different allocation that makes at least one individual better off without making any other individual worse off, given a certain initial allocation of goods among a set of individuals
Lateral Thinking
Solving problems through an indirect and creative approach, using reasoning that is not immediately obvious and involving ideas that may not be obtainable by using only traditional step-by-step logic
Divergent Thinking vs Convergent Thinking
Divergent thinking is a thought process or method used to generate creative ideas by exploring many possible solutions; it is often used in conjunction with its cognitive opposite, convergent thinking, which follows a particular set of logical steps to arrive at one solution, which in some cases is a ‘correct’ solution
Critical Mass
In social dynamics, critical mass is a sufficient number of adopters of an innovation in a social system so that the rate of adoption becomes self-sustaining and creates further growth
Activation Energy
The minimum energy which must be available to a chemical system with potential reactants to result in a chemical reaction
Catalyst
A substance which increases the rate of a chemical reaction
Leverage
The force amplification achieved by using a tool, mechanical device or machine system
Crowdsourcing
The process of obtaining needed services, ideas, or content by soliciting contributions from a large group of people, especially an online community, rather than from employees or suppliers
Structure of Scientific Revolutions
An episodic model in which periods of such conceptual continuity in normal science were interrupted by periods of revolutionary science. The discovery of “anomalies” during revolutions in science leads to new paradigms. New paradigms then ask new questions of old data, move beyond the mere “puzzle-solving” of the previous paradigm, change the rules of the game and the “map” directing new research.
Scientific Method
Systematic observation, measurement, and experiment, and the formulation, testing, and modification of hypotheses
Proxy
A variable that is not in itself directly relevant, but that serves in place of an unobservable or immeasurable variable; for a variable to be a good proxy, it must have a close correlation, not necessarily linear, with the variable of interest
Selection Bias
The selection of individuals, groups or data for analysis in such a way that proper randomization is not achieved, thereby ensuring that the sample obtained is not representative of the population intended to be analyzed
Response Bias
A wide range of cognitive biases that influence the responses of participants away from an accurate or truthful response
Observer Effect
Changes that the act of observation will make on a phenomenon being observed
Survivorship Bias
The logical error of concentrating on the people or things that ‘survived’ some process and inadvertently overlooking those that did not because of their lack of visibility
Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle
A fundamental limit to the precision with which certain pairs of physical properties of a particle, known as complementary variables, such as position x and momentum p, can be known
Order of Magnitude
An order-of-magnitude estimate of a variable whose precise value is unknown is an estimate rounded to the nearest power of ten
First Order vs Second Order Effects
First order effects directly follow from a cause, while second order effects follow from first order effects
False Positives and False Negatives
A false positive error, or in short false positive, commonly called a ‘false alarm’, is a result that indicates a given condition has been fulfilled, when it actually has not been fulfilled…A false negative error, or in short false negative, is where a test result indicates that a condition failed, while it actually was successful, i.e. erroneously no effect has been assumed.
Confidence Interval
Confidence intervals consist of a range of values (interval) that act as good estimates of the unknown population parameter; however, the interval computed from a particular sample does not necessarily include the true value of the parameter
Bayes’ Theorem
Describes the probability of an event, based on conditions that might be related to the event. For example, suppose one is interested in whether a person has cancer, and knows the person’s age. If cancer is related to age, then, using Bayes’ theorem, information about the person’s age can be used to more accurately assess the probability that they have cancer.
Regression to the Mean
The phenomenon that if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on its second measurement
Inflection Point
A point on a curve at which the curve changes from being concave (concave downward) to convex (concave upward), or vice versa
Simpson’s Paradox
A paradox in probability and statistics, in which a trend appears in different groups of data but disappears or reverses when these groups are combined
Business Case
Captures the reasoning for initiating a project or task. It is often presented in a well-structured written document, but may also sometimes come in the form of a short verbal argument or presentation
Opportunity Cost
The value of the best alternative forgone where, given limited resources, a choice needs to be made between several mutually exclusive alternatives. Assuming the best choice is made, it is the ‘cost’ incurred by not enjoying the benefit that would have been had by taking the second best available choice
Intuition
Personal experience coded into your personal neural network, which means your intuition is dangerous outside the bounds of your personal experience
Local vs. Global Optimum
A local optimum of an optimization problem is a solution that is optimal (either maximal or minimal) within a neighboring set of candidate solutions; this is in contrast to a global optimum, which is the optimal solution among all possible solutions, not just those in a particular neighborhood of values
Decision Tree
A decision support tool that uses a tree-like graph or model of decisions and their possible consequences, including chance event outcomes, resource costs, and utility
Sunk Cost
A cost that has already been incurred and cannot be recovered
Availability Bias
People tend to heavily weigh their judgments toward more recent information, making new opinions biased toward that latest news
Confirmation Bias
The tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one’s preexisting beliefs or hypotheses, while giving disproportionately less consideration to alternative possibilities
Loss Aversion
People’s tendency to strongly prefer avoiding losses to acquiring gains
Ancedotal
Using a personal experience or an isolated example instead of a sound argument or compelling evidence
False Cause
Presuming that a real or perceived relationship between things means that one is the cause of the other
Straw Man
Misrepresenting someone’s argument to make it easier to attack
Plausible
Thinking that just because something is plausible means that it is true
Likely
Thinking that just because something is possible means that it is likely
Appeal to Emotion
Manipulating an emotional response in place of a valid or compelling argument
Ad Hominem
Attacking your opponent’s character or personal traits in an attempt to undermine their argument
Slippery Slope
Asserting that if we allow A to happen, then Z will eventually happen too, therefore A should not happen
Black or White
When two alternative states are presented as the only possibilities, when in fact more possibilities exist
Bandwagon
Appealing to popularity or the fact that many people do something as an attempted form of validation
The Third Story
The Third Story is one an impartial observer, such as a mediator, would tell; it’s a version of events both sides can agree on
Active Listening
Requires that the listener fully concentrates, understands, responds and then remembers what is being said
Trade-Offs
A situation that involves losing one quality or aspect of something in return for gaining another quality or aspect
