Framework Triggers Flashcards
Bidding
Breakeven analysis:
P = (R - C)
Upfront cost - (Units * profit) = breakeven
Breakeven is the highest bid amount
Large up front investment
Time value of money
Should we stay in the business?
In addition to assessing profitability of business, explore alternatives:
- sell whole business
- sell assets and shut down the business
- keep operating as is
- keep operating with changes (e.g., investment in new technology)
Company Value
[Units*(rev - costs) - fixed costs] / discount rate
Note:
- this is contribution margin minus fixed costs to get annual cash flow
- dividing by the discount rate assumes a perpetuity of the cash flows to identify value of a company
Rule of 72
Investment will double in 72years/ rate
Ex., at a 10% rate it would take 7.2 years to double, at a 12% rate it would take 6 years
Book value
Book value of investment is what it cost at the time of purchase. May need to appreciate to future value using growth rate (see rule of 72)
Gross Margin
Profit/ unit cost
Bains PE/ VC buckets
(1) market attractiveness
(2) company attractiveness
(3) competitive environment
(4) feasibility & profitable exit (eg., potential buyers , expected multiple at exit)
Definition: CAGR
Compound annual growth rate
Why look at profit multiples?
(1) allows firm to assess fair market price
(2) helps firm identify how much return they can demand on their improvements to the company
Definition: relative market share (rms)
Measure of market dominance taking market fragmentation into account. A number greater than 1 means a market leader outperforms the next biggest competitor by that amount. A number less than one demonstrates how far they are behind the market leader
Options for dealing with underperforming segments
(1) invest to improve profitability
2) sell off (whole business or dismantle and sell assets
Fragmentation & what it means about strategic buyers
Fragmented market means there are likely going to be strategic buyers available when we decide to sell
Clarifying questions to ask up front
- goal (profitability %, rev value, return goal - be specific)
- time frame for this goal
When provided with numbers (sales, rev, profit ask for two things)
(1) growth over time
(2) comparison to competitors
Sales growth
Emphasis to be on revenue, not profitability & costs - if you do go on a tangent like cost you need to state a hypothesis/ why (e.g., I hypothesize that if costs are too high big clients will just do their own development in house)
High concentration of buyers or suppliers
The more highly concentrated one has more power (e.g., Walmart is a huge buyer so it can exert more power)
How can you piggy back on complimentary goods?
Repackaging (e.g., selling cheese slices because they’ll pair better with crackers and tap into mom market)
Bundling (e.g., selling additional maintenance or repair services to keep customers coming back to you rather than outside services)
Profitability & lifecycle
- If profits are low and something is in a late stage (many players, low growth left) it might make sense to wind down and sell off
- if profits are low but it’s in early stage and there is lots of growth left, it is worth exploring if there are ways to take advantage of this
Considerations on competitor concentration
Highly concentrated competitors are harder to compete against
Other things that make competitors hard to chase:
- cost advantages ( so they can always compete on price)
- extremely high market share so they can force competitors hands
Analyzing performance of multiple business units
Start with a question to help understand where to prioritize: what was the profitability of each segment?
From here you can drill down into what caused it
Allocation mix and breakeven
Use allocation to calculate a weighted average profit and then back into needed sales from there
Gross margin & profit relationship
Gross margin % * price = profit per unit
Considerations regarding margins and profit mix
Can we change the mix to emphasize the products with the biggest profit margin?
Market entry framework
(1) market (can include customer and maybe even competitors depending on industry)
(2) profitability
(3) HOW??
- m&a?
- acquire?
- jv?
Clarifications to ask before market sizing
- willingness to pay!
- anything else that could further reduce (or increase number of people)
- also walk interviewer slowly through your assumptions: e.g, I am assuming the average life span is 80 and that people are evenly distributed across age groups
Reading a graph
Start with:
- title
- legend
- footnotes
Interpreting:
- go big picture to little (e.g., I can see that market is growing and is fragmented, there are also new entrants/ other key changes, then talk about specific companies growth or movement)
Non profit metric
Breakeven timeframe + other metrics
Valuing a company
Y1 cash flow + y2 cash flow/(1+r) + y3 cash flow/(1+r)^2 etc for the expected life of the company (safe to assume 5 years if none given)
Response to competitors stealing our market share
- copy/ see what they’ve done differently
- acquire competitor
- acquire another company
- hire their management
- increase our own profile (marketing, etc)
Costs included in inventory planning
- cogs
- distribution
- unsold goods (!)