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GARP SCR > Foundations Of Climate Change > Flashcards

Foundations Of Climate Change Flashcards

1
Q

We have high quality weather observations which are adequate over the last …. Years?

A

150 Years

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2
Q

Earth has warmed by what *c since the late C19?

A

1.1*c

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3
Q

As of 2021, the warmest year on record was ___? Followed by ___ & ____

A

1st : 2016
2nd : 2020
3rd: 2019

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4
Q

Proportion of the world which lives in N.Hemisphere

A

85%

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5
Q

What % of heat trapped by GHGs goes into heating the oceans?

A

93%

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6
Q

IPCC has determined that the confidence in the warming of the climate system in early C20 is…

A

Unequivocal

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7
Q

Tree rings are what colour in spring and what colour in autumn?

A

Spring - light coloured growth

Autumn - darker colour growth

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8
Q

Speleothems are what sort of structure?

A

Cave structures

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9
Q

Climate measurements only go back 170 years - name 5 other techniques:

A
  1. Tree Rings
  2. Corals
  3. Speleothems (caves)
  4. Ice Cores
  5. Ocean Sediment Cores
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10
Q

How far do ice cores go back?

A

Past million years

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11
Q

Ocean sediment cores go back how many years?

A

Tens of millions of years

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12
Q

How many years ago was the Earth much warmer than today?

A

50 million

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13
Q

50 million years ago the Earth was…

A

Much warmer - no permanent ice

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14
Q

The planet cycles between ice ages and interglacial periods - each period is how many years

A

C. 100,000

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15
Q

When did the last ice age reach its coldest point? When did it end?

A

Coldest peak - 20,000 years ago

Ended 10,000 years ago

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16
Q

The last 11,000 years are known as the ___?

When did temperatures peak?

A

Holocene

Temperatures peaked around 7,000 years ago

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17
Q

When was the little ice age?

A

200-300 years ago

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18
Q

What is the average difference between the Ice Age & Interglacial periods?

A

6*c

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19
Q

The 1*c of warming since the Little Ice Age is happening at a much more rapid rate…what is the rate?

A

X16 faster than out of the Ice Ages

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20
Q

Sunlight is absorbed by the Earth, at what W/m2?

A

340 W/m2

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21
Q

What % of the Earth’s sunlight is reflected back to space by clouds / reflective elements?

A

30%

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22
Q

What is the net solar energy absorbed by the Earth’s surface?

A

238 W/m2

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23
Q

Who recognised that the Earth had to be radiating an equal amount of energy to space (infrared radiation)?

A

Fourier

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24
Q

When did Fourier realise that GHGs reduced the amount of power than Earth radiated to space?

A

1820s

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25
Q

Possibility of the greenhouse effect was first recognised in 1896 by and was furthered in 1940 by?

A

1896 - Arrhenius

1940s - Callendar

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26
Q

Majority of the atmosphere contains what three gases?

A

Nitrogen (N2)
Oxygen (O2)
Argon (Ar)

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27
Q

Minor constituents of the atmosphere cause the greenhouse effect - which is the most important GHG?

A

Water vapour - most important GHG, trapping the most heat

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28
Q

The monitoring of CO2 is done on what curve? It has been measured since when?

A

Keeling Curve - measured since mid-C20

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29
Q

For the past 50 years the increase in CO2 each year averages what % of what humans released into the atmosphere that year?

A

44%

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30
Q

What proportion of CO2 emitted is absorbed by oceans ?

A

1/4

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31
Q

All carbon dioxide molecules have six protons - however different sources of carbon dioxide contain different numbers of neutrons. Name x3 types

A

Carbon 12 - x6 neutrons
Carbon 13 - x7 neutrons
Carbon 14 - x8 neutrons

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32
Q

Air bubbles trapped in glacial ice - in late C18 there was 280ppm

By 2020, humans increased atmospheric CO2 by what ppm and what %?

A

Increased by 135ppm, 45%

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33
Q

Each KG of methane traps as much heat as how many KGs of CO2?

A

28KG

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34
Q

Pre-industrial methane levels were ___ ppm? In 2020 these levels were ____ ppm?

A

Pre-industrial: 0.8ppm

2020: 1.9ppm

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35
Q

Ozone has the ability to absorb what time of radiation?

Humans do not emit ozone

A

Absorb ultraviolet radiation

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36
Q

Name x3 types of aerosols and where they come from…

A

Surface aerosols (sulfur released from FFs)

Black carbon aerosols (soot)

Mineral dust (agri activities, changes in water features, cement production)

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37
Q

Atmosphere lifetime of Carbon Dioxide

A

500 years

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38
Q

Atmospheric lifetime of methane

A

12.4 years

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39
Q

Atmospheric lifetime of nitrous oxide

A

121 years

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40
Q

Atmospheric lifetime of halocarbons

A

Years to millenia

41
Q

Atmospheric lifetime of ozone

A

Weeks to months

42
Q

GWP of the following gases:

  • Methane
  • Nitrous Oxide
  • Halocarbons
A

Methane - 28
Nitrous Oxide - 265
Halocarbons - 100s to 1000s

43
Q

Increase in abundance since pre-industrial times:

  • CO2
  • Methane
  • Nitrous Oxide, Halocarbons, Ozone
A

CO2: 130ppm
Methane: 1.1ppm
Other: ppb

44
Q

Fraction of total greenhouse radiative forcing

  • CO2
  • Methane
  • Nitrous Oxide
  • Halocarbons
  • Ozone
A 
CO2: 56%
CH4: 15%
NO2: 5%
Halocarbons: 11%
Ozone: 12%
45
Q

Anthropogenic changes to radiative forcing quantify…

A

Difference between the incoming energy absorbed by Earth and outgoing infrared radiation

46
Q

CO2 & GHGs have caused a positive change to radiative forcing of __ W/M2

A

3 W/M2

47
Q

Aerosols have caused a negative change to radiative forcing ____ W/M2?

A

0.75 W/M2

48
Q

Net human contribution to radiative forcing is ___ W/M2?

A

2.25 W/M2

49
Q

What does water vapour do to the Earth’s temperature? What is this process called?

A

Water vapour feedback

Main role is to amplify changes caused by increasing CO2

50
Q

Climate has experienced cyclical patterns:

Tectonic processes - explain

A

Tectonic processes can substantially alter arrangement of continents - ice sheets are reflective

51
Q

Output of the sun can be attributed to warming in what way…

Scientists have been measuring the output of the sun since when…

A

Scientists have been measuring the output of the sun since late 1970s

Suns output has changed little over the past few hundred years - doesn’t explain warming period

52
Q

Orbital variations can be impacted by the Earth-sun distance, name x3 ways how:

A
  1. Shape of orbit
  2. Tilt of Earth
  3. Date of closest approach
53
Q

Shape of Earth’s orbit becomes more and less elliptical every ____ years

A

100,000 years

54
Q

Tilt of the Earth is around what degrees currently

Cycles vary between X and Y every how many years

A

Tilt is currently 23.5*

Cycles between 22.3* and 24.5*

Tilts around every 41,000 years

55
Q

Date of closest approach is currently in what month?

Cycles though the calendar year over how many years?

A

January

23,000 years

56
Q

El Niño and La Niña - which is the warmer period? How long do they last?

A

El Niño - warmer period

La Niña - colder period

Last around a year

57
Q

IPCC’s 2013 summary statement on warming attribution identified that:
‘_____ that ____ of the observed increased in global average surface temperature from _______ was caused by anthropogenic increase in GHG concentrations and other anthropogenic forcing together.’

A

Extremely likely that…

More than half…

Global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010…

58
Q

Extremely like = what confidence %?

A

95%

59
Q

Who set up the SSP 1-5 shared socioeconomic pathways?

A

Integrated Assessment Modelling Consortium

60
Q 
Temperature Increases: 
SSP 1
SSP 2
SSP 3
SSP 5
A

SSP 1 - 2c
SSP 2 - 3c
SSP 3 - 4.5c
SSP 5 - 5.5c

61
Q

Describe SSP 1

  • general overview
  • emissions peak
  • temp increase
A

Sustainable World - gradually shift to decarbonise

Emissions peak now

Emissions go negative in 2075

Temperature increase of 2’c

62
Q

Describe SS2

  • general
  • temperature increase
A

Follows trends of world today - general decline in GHGs as renewable energy adoption increases
Economic growth similar to SSP1

Temperature increase of 3*c

63
Q

SSP3 describe

  • general
  • temperature increase
  • emissions
A

Economic Inequality - increasing conflict between nations
Economic growth is slow, adaptation of new technology slow
Emissions double today’s in 2100

Temperature increase of 4.5*c

64
Q

SSP5 describe

  • general description
  • temperature increase
  • emissions
A

BAU focused on economic growth > sustainability
Fossil fuels power a significant fraction of the growth

Emissions triple today’s values in 2100
Temperature increase of 5.5*c

65
Q

Temperature difference between SSP1 to SSP5

A

Nearly 4c temperature difference (2c to 5.5*+)

66
Q

What warming do we control?

A

We control the warming in the second half of C21 -

Lag means warming over the next few decades is largely determined by past investment

67
Q

Example of the impacts of heatwaves

A

2003 heatwaves in Europe - caused 10s of thousands of excess deaths

68
Q

Global precipitation projected to increase by Xm for every degree Celsius of global average warming?

A

3m

69
Q

IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report suggests sea level will rise ____ above today’s levels by 2100

What proportion of Florida would be flooded at high tide under this estimation?

A

Sea level will rise 45-75cm above today’s levels by 2100

9% of Florida’s land

70
Q

Describe ice melt -

What will the impact of C21 warming be on ice melt?

A

Ice melts slowly, this is just a fraction of how much sea level rise we are committed to

May take millennia for sea level to fully respond to the warming of C21, or more rapid under tipping point scenario

71
Q

How is ocean acidification caused?

What is the impact?

A

In liquid environments, carbon dioxide is converted to carbonic acid

Ocean pH drops, harder for calcifying species - can be fatal for some

72
Q

How can you quantitatively determine what role climate plays in extreme events?

What do you need?

A

Extreme-event attribution science

  1. Statistical analysis of historical climate
  2. Physics of the phenomenon
  3. Computer Simulations
73
Q

Estimated that rainfall from Hurricane Harvey was x% greater due to climate change?

A

15% greater due to climate change

74
Q

Who has concluded that most extreme events have been affected by climate change?

A

AMETSOC

75
Q

When was the last climate tipping point?

What happened to temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere?

A

Last ice age - 12,000 years ago

N.Hemisphere plunged several degrees due to disrupted ocean currents

76
Q

Describe some potential abrupt changes should a tipping point occur:

A
  • Shutdown of Gulf Stream
  • Disintegration of Greenland Ice Sheets
  • Thawing of permafrost
  • Shift in timing & magnitude of Indian monsoon
77
Q

What is carbon intensity?

A

Amount of carbon dioxide produced per unit of energy generated

78
Q

What is the highest carbon intense fuel - rank them

A

Coal
Oil
Natural Gas

79
Q

To satisfy the Earth’s energy requirements, what area of solar energy collectors is required? What proportion of the Earth’s surface is this?

A

1million Km2

0.2% of Earth’s surface

80
Q

What is a logical short term solution for solving intermittency?

What is the longer term solution?

A

Short term - natural gas

Long term - energy storage technologies

81
Q

What are the key challenges of biomass energy?

A
  • getting to a large scale

- additional land typically comes from clearing forests

82
Q

What proportion of the world’s energy is generated on hydroelectricity?

A

16%

83
Q

What is the key challenge for hydroelectricity?

A

Many of the world’s big rivers already dammed - new dams cause local issues & opposition

84
Q

Nuclear generates what proportion of the world’s electricity?

A

2018

85
Q

Where is CO2 from CCS injected?

A

Underground in depleted oil and gas fields, coal beds that cannot be mined or deep saline formations

86
Q

Solar Radiation management - what is the mechanism?

A

Injection of sulfur into the stratosphere

87
Q

What does the injection of sulfur into the stratosphere do?

A

Reacts with ambient water Vapor to form droplets, which reflect sunlight back to space

88
Q

What are the side effects of solar radiation management?

A

Changing precipitation patterns
Potential for droughts
Governance nightmare
Political destabilisation

89
Q

What is a disadvantage of carbon dioxide removal schemes?

A

Required scale is enormous - we add 40bn tonnes of CO2 into atmosphere pa

90
Q

Carbon dioxide removal - differences from CCS

A

CCS captures exhaust gas of a power plant

Carbon dioxide air capture removes carbon from the free atmosphere

91
Q

What is BECCS

A

Bio energy with CCS

Plants burned to produce power - carbon sequestered using CCS tech

92
Q

What has the Biden administration committed to the US doing?

A

Cutting overall GHG by 50% below 2005 levels by 2030

Net zero 2050

93
Q

What has the EU committed to in emissions reductions?

A

Reduced 55% in 2030 below 1990 levels

94
Q

When has China agreed to level off emissions

A

2030

95
Q

What do our NDC commitments currently put us on track for warming wise?

A

2.5-3*c by 2100

96
Q

For every trillion tonnes of CO2 emitted, warming goes up by ___

A

0.3-0.6*c

97
Q

How much CO2 has been emitted between the industrial revolution and 2017?

A

2.2 trillion tonnes

98
Q

What is our emissions budget for…?

  • 2*c
  • 1.5*c
A

2*c : 1.5trillion tonnes

1.5*c : 580 billion tonnes

99
Q

We cannot reach either a 2c nor 1.5c target without…

A

The ability to generate large negative emissions

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