Formal Fallacies Flashcards
A formal fallacy is
an error in logic that can be seen in the argument’s form. All formal fallacies are specific types of non sequiturs.
using a personal experience or an isolated example instead of sound reasoning or compelling evidence.
Anecdotal fallacy/Misleading vividness
leads to: hasty generalizations about the occurrence
but there’s a very strong psychological effect because of a cognitive heuristic called the availability heuristic.
a statement that takes something for granted because it would probably be the case (or might be the case)
Appeal to probability
assumes that if an argument for some conclusion is fallacious, then the conclusion is false.
Argument from fallacy [argument to logic (argumentum ad logicam)]
If P, then Q.
P is a fallacious argument.
Therefore, Q is false.
argumentum ad logicam
argumentum ad logicam
Objection
Tom: All cats are animals. Ginger is an animal. Therefore, Ginger is a cat.
Bill: You have just fallaciously affirmed the consequent. You are incorrect. Therefore, Ginger is not a cat.
Tom: I speak English. Therefore, I am English.
Bill: Americans and Canadians, among others, speak English too. By assuming that speaking English and being English always go together, you have just committed the package-deal fallacy. You are incorrect. Therefore, you are not English.
Both of Bill’s rebuttals are arguments from fallacy. Ginger may or may not be a cat, and Tom may or may not be English. The fact that Tom’s argument was fallacious is not, in itself, sufficient proof that his conclusion is false.
argumentum ad logicam
Counterargument
Joe: Bill’s assumption that Ginger is not a cat uses the argument from fallacy. Therefore, Ginger absolutely must be a cat.
That one can invoke the argument from fallacy against a position does not prove one’s own position either, as this would be an argument from fallacy itself, as is the case in Joe’s argument.
Argumentum ad logicam
can be used as an ad hominem appeal: by impugning the opponent’s credibility or good faith it can be used to sway the audience by undermining the speaker, rather than addressing the speaker’s argument.
assumes that if an argument for some conclusion is fallacious, then the conclusion is false.
Argument from fallacy
Something can go wrong (premise).
Therefore, something will go wrong (invalid conclusion).
If I do not bring my umbrella (premise)
It will rain. (invalid conclusion).
A fallacious appeal to possibility (appeal to probability):
making a probability judgment based on conditional probabilities, without taking into account the effect of prior probabilities.
Base rate fallacy
If presented with related base rate information (i.e. generic, general information) and specific information (information only pertaining to a certain case), the mind tends to ignore the former and focus on the latter.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy
Base rate fallacy Example:
In a city of 1 million inhabitants let there be 100 terrorists and 999,900 non-terrorists. To simplify the example, it is assumed that all people present in the city are inhabitants. Thus, the base rate probability of a randomly selected inhabitant of the city being a terrorist is 0.0001, and the base rate probability of that same inhabitant being a non-terrorist is 0.9999. In an attempt to catch the terrorists, the city installs an alarm system with a surveillance camera and automatic facial recognition software.
The software has two failure rates of 1%:
The false negative rate: If the camera scans a terrorist, a bell will ring 99% of the time, and it will fail to ring 1% of the time.
The false positive rate: If the camera scans a non-terrorist, a bell will not ring 99% of the time, but it will ring 1% of the time.
Suppose now that an inhabitant triggers the alarm. What is the chance that the person is a terrorist? In other words, what is P(T | B), the probability that a terrorist has been detected given the ringing of the bell? Someone making the ‘base rate fallacy’ would infer that there is a 99% chance that the detected person is a terrorist. Although the inference seems to make sense, it is actually bad reasoning, and a calculation below will show that the chances he/she is a terrorist are actually near 1%, not near 99%.
The fallacy arises from confusing the natures of two different failure rates. The ‘number of non-bells per 100 terrorists’ and the ‘number of non-terrorists per 100 bells’ are unrelated quantities. One does not necessarily equal the other, and they don’t even have to be almost equal. To show this, consider what happens if an identical alarm system were set up in a second city with no terrorists at all. As in the first city, the alarm sounds for 1 out of every 100 non-terrorist inhabitants detected, but unlike in the first city, the alarm never sounds for a terrorist. Therefore 100% of all occasions of the alarm sounding are for non-terrorists, but a false negative rate cannot even be calculated. The ‘number of non-terrorists per 100 bells’ in that city is 100, yet P(T | B) = 0%. There is zero chance that a terrorist has been detected given the ringing of the bell.
Imagine that the city’s entire population of one million people pass in front of the camera. About 99 of the 100 terrorists will trigger the alarm—and so will about 9,999 of the 999,900 non-terrorists. Therefore, about 10,098 people will trigger the alarm, among which about 99 will be terrorists. So, the probability that a person triggering the alarm actually is a terrorist, is only about 99 in 10,098, which is less than 1%, and very, very far below our initial guess of 99%.
The base rate fallacy is so misleading in this example because there are many more non-terrorists than terrorists
assumption that an outcome simultaneously satisfying multiple conditions is more probable than an outcome satisfying a single one of them.
Conjunction fallacy
conjunction fallacy example:
Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.
Which is more probable?
1) Linda is a bank teller.
2) Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.
The majority of those asked chose option 2. However, the probability of two events occurring together (in “conjunction”) is always less than or equal to the probability of either one occurring alone—formally, for two events A and B this inequality could be written as Pr(A ^ B)
conjunction fallacy example:
Which of the following events is most likely to occur within the next year?
- The United States will withdraw all troops from Iraq.
- The United States will withdraw all troops from Iraq and bomb Iranian nuclear facilities.
The probability of the conjunctions is never greater than that of its conjuncts. Therefore, the first choice is more probable. No matter how unlikely it is that America will withdraw troops within the year from Iraq, it is even less likely they will do so and bomb nuclear facilities
the substitution of identical designators in a true statement can lead to a false one.
Masked man fallacy (illicit substitution of identicals)
In philosophical logic, the masked man fallacy (also known as the intensional fallacy and the epistemic fallacy[1]) is committed when one makes an illicit use of Leibniz’s law in an argument. Leibniz’s law states that, if one object has a certain property, while another object does not have the same property, the two objects cannot be identical.
Masked man fallacy (illicit substitution of identicals)
The name of the fallacy comes from the example:
Premise 1: I know who Bob is.
Premise 2: I do not know who the masked man is
Conclusion: Therefore, Bob is not the masked man.
The premises may be true and the conclusion false if Bob is the masked man and the speaker does not know that. Thus the argument is a fallacious one.
Masked man fallacy (illicit substitution of identicals) Example:
Lois Lane believes that Superman can fly.
Lois Lane does not believe that Clark Kent can fly.
Therefore Superman and Clark Kent are not the same person.
In symbolic form, the above arguments are
Premise 1: I know who X is.
Premise 2: I do not know who Y is.
Conclusion: Therefore, X is not Y.