FM Flashcards
What is the formula for dividends based approach of valuation
Used for valuing a minority interest, as the investor cannot control dividend policy, therefore income will depend on the dividends that the company is likely to pay out
Formula:
Present value of future expected dividend payments discounted at Ke
Ke - (cost of equity)
D0 - (the latest dividend)
D1 - (upcoming dividend or latest dividend × projected growth)
G - (growth)
Present value = (d1 x 1/Ke - g)
Or
Yield = Dividend/Price
If we can estimate the yield by looking at similar companies we can estimate the price as
Price = Dividend/Yield
Pros and cons:
Mainly revolve around the estimates used
What is Yield?
Yield is the debt holders’ required rate of return. (Referred to as ‘r’)
R = i/P 0
Where
i = annual interest starting in one year’s time
P 0 = original price
Excel formula yield on debt
=RATE(number of time periods, interest payment, market value, redemption value)
General letter abbreviations
i = annual interest starting in one year’s time
r = debt holders’ required return (yield)
Kd = cost of debt
Ke = cost of equity
T = corporation tax rate
P = price
NPV = Net present value
Excel formulas
Yield on debt
=RATE(number of time periods, interest payment, market value, redemption value)
NPV =NPV(discount rate %, NCFs from T1 onwards) + initial cash flow
Growth =Power(most recent fig./oldest fig, 1/number of years)
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
A way of estimating the rate of return that a FULLY DIVERSIFIED equity shareholder would require from a particular investment
Formula:
Rj = Rf + B (Rm - Rf)
Rj = required return from an investment
Rf = risk free rate -> assumed to be the rate on Treasury Bills
Rm = average return on the market
(Rm - Rf) = equity risk premium
B (BETA) = systematic risk of the investment compared to market and therefore amount of the premium needed
Dividend yield method
Used to value minority interests
Cum div
&
Ex div
Cum div = share price before the dividend payment
Ex div = share price after the dividend payment
Cum div share price - dividend due = Ex div share price
Earnings based method
If a controlling share is held, the owner can access earnings generated - so earnings based method is used
Problems with Earnings based method
Erratic or manipulated earnings - unusually high or low earnings in previous year could distort values
Could mitigate by
- excluding one-off items
- use and average of the last few years earnings
Accounting policies can be used to manipulate earnings like: a change in depreciation policy could suggest the company’s earnings are artificially growing
Difficult to find similar listed companies to compare to
Listed companies tend to be overvalued
It is worth 1 Mark in the exam to say that a limited company should be reduced in values because of lack of marketability
PE multiple valuation
PE ratio = price per share/earnings per share
Or
PE ratio = total share value/total earnings
Rearranged
Price per share = PE ratio x Earnings per share
Or
Total share value = PE ratio x total earnings
Earnings = suitable earnings available to shareholders
One off values in questions must be excluded
PE ratios are only available for listed companies
For limited companies, an approximation must be used
EBITDA multiple
Takes away from controversial accounting policies like depreciation and amortisation and gives an approximation for cash earned per year. Cash is more factual than profit so better for measuring
Enterprise (EBITDA) multiple = Enterprise value/EBITDA
Enterprise value = the market value of all types of finance.
Calculated as:
Equity + debt - cash - short term investments
Cash flow based approach
Also used for majority ownership
Value of equity = PV of cash flow to infinity discounted at WACC - MV of debt
Discounted cash flow approach
Most detailed approach to value controlling interests
Equity = PV of pre-interest cash flows discounted @ WACC + Value of investments - Value of debt
Calculate perpetuity
Present value of perpetuity cashflow = Perpetuity cashflow* 1/discount rate
1÷discount factor %, * annuity discount factor for the previous year.
I.e. if calculating perpetuity for T4, use annuity decimal from T3
Or for a Growing Continuing Value:
(After tax cash flows for last known year * intended growth rate)/(discount factor - intended growth rate)
Or
1/(1+r)^n
r = discount rate % n = number of periods
What is WACC
Weighted average cost of capital
It is an average of Ke (cost of equity), Kp (cost of preference shares) and Kd (cost of debt) weighted according to the current market values of equity, preference and debt within a company’s capital structure
Foward
A binding agreement to buy or sell something in the future at a price fixed today
Tailor made and difficult to cancel
Could turn out to be advantageous or disadvantageous
Future
Standardised exchange traded contract to buy or sell something at an agreed price on a future date
Set sizes and for set dates
Easy to buy or sell on exchange like shares are bought
Usually closed out before due date
An Option
Gives the right but not obligation to buy or sell a specific quantity of an item at a predetermined price
Over the counter options:
Attached to forward contracts, pric agreed upfront. Tailor made
Traded options:
As futures are traded on exchange and option on futures is a traded option.
Standardised
Simulations
strengths and weaknesses
Strengths
Useful for problems that cannot be solved analytically
Can consider changes to multiple variables
Take into account probability of variables changing
Weaknesses
They do not suggest a correct decision
Expensive and time consuming ti create
Info on probabilities may be unreliable
Trade risks
Physical risk (loss or damage require replacement costs)
Political risk (region based restrictions/taxes)
Liquidity risk (inability to finance credit or pay debts)
Credit risk (risk of customers defaulting)
Cultural risk (incompatibility with cultural preferences)
Human error
Market efficiency
How stock market prices react to events
Weak form - share prices reflect info about past price mvmt, and future price mvmt cannot be predicted from past mvmts
Semi-strong form - Share prices incorporate all publicly available info rapidly and accurately. The market cannot be beaten by analysing publicly available info
Strong form - Share prices reflect all info whether published or not. Insider dealing has no value
London stock exchange is usually semi-strong efficient
Semi strong markets react to press releases
Strong markets do not react to press releases bc the info is already reflected in stock prices
Bankruptcy
Very high gearing (I.e. very high reliance on debt) puts a business at risk of bankruptcy
Gearing theory
Traditional view = low gearing (I.e. low reliance on debt = decrease in WACC = company value rises
High gearing (I.e. High reliance on debt) = cost of debt rises = WACC rises = company value drops
Modigliani and Miller 1963- company WACC and company value is not affected by level of gearing other than through effects of tax relief. Tax relief =fall in WACC = company value rises
Pros and cons of loan finance
Traditional view
Loan finance is cheap because it is low risk to lenders and loan interest is tax deductible
This means gearing increases, so WACC decreases, so company value rises
Shareholders and lenders are relatively inconcerned about increased risk at low level of gearing
Higher gearing = Higher risk = Higher returns demanded by shareholders and lenders = Higher wacc = lower company value
Modigliani and Miller view
Shareholders are immediately concerned by any gearing
Gearing (loan finance) is only beneficial because of tax relief
Modern view
M&M probably right about gearing only being beneficial bc of tax
High gearing = Shareholders worry about bankruptcy = Higher returns demanded=wacc up= Business value down
Optimum gearing = WACC is minimised and company value is maximised