Fixed Income Flashcards
Chapter 32: Term Structure and Interest rate dynamics
Spot rate
rate of interest on an option-free, default-free, zero-coupon bond (gov’t bond/bill)
forward rate
interest rate set today for some future period
Forward rates are read as f(when, what)
Forward rate model
[1+S(j+k)](j+k) = (1+Sj)j x [1 + f(j,k)]k
This model illustrates how forward rates and spot rates are interrelated.
For example, f(2,3) should make investors indifferent between buying a 5-yr zero-coupon bond versus buying a 2-yr zero-coupon bond and at maturity, reinvesting the principal for 3 additional years
Forward pricing model
When the spot curve is upward sloping, the forward curve lies
above the spot curve
When the spot curve is downward sloping, the forward curve lies…
below spot curve
YTM vs spot rate
YTM is simply the weighted-average of spot rates used in valuation
YTM is a poor proxy for expected return
YTM works as expected return only if:
- held to maturity
- no default
- coupon payments are reinvested at YTM
Par curve
YTM on coupon paying bonds (gov’t) priced at par
IF spot rates evolve as predicted by forward rates…
bonds of all maturities will realize a 1 period return = 1 period spot rate and the forward price would be the same
Active bond portfolio management is built on the assumption that..
current forward curve may not accurately predict future spot rates
IF implied forward rates are too high
buy bonds
if implied forward rates are too low
sell bonds
Riding the yield curve/rolling down the yield curve
buying bonds w/a maturity longer than the investment horizon would provide a total return > return on a maturity matching strategy.
The steeper the curve, longer the bond, greater the return
swap rates
price (in yield) that a fixed rate payer will pay for Libor
why use swap curve?
- some countries don’t have a liquid gov’t bond market
swap spread
swap spread = swap rate - Treasury bond yield
swap spread is the additional interest rate paid by the fixed rate payer of an interest rate swap over the rate of the “on-the-run” gov’t bond of the same maturity
on the run = most recently issued
Z-spread
constant bps spread added to spot rates so that risky bond’s DCF = PV
Z-spread assumes interest rate volatility = 0
Can’t use this to value bonds w/embedded options
TED spread
TED spread = 3mo Libor rate - 3mo Tbill rate
TED spread is used as an indication of the overall level of credit risk in the economy
LIBOR-OIS spread
Libor rate - overnight indexed swap
This is an indicator of risk and liquidity of money market securities
Pure expectations theory (also know as unbiased expectations theory)
Forward curve is an unbiased predictor of future spot rates
Curve reflects