Financial Modeling Projections And Analysis Flashcards
Step one for the stages of cash flow: inception of the project
Invoice + shipping + installation (outflow)
Add: increase in working capital (outflow)
Subtract: cash proceeds on sale of old (net of tax) (inflow)
——————————————————————-
Net initial outflow
What are the stages of cash flow?
Step 1: Inception of the project
Step 2: operations
Step 3: disposal of the project
How do you find the net proceeds on sale of old (net of tax)? in order to complete step one for the stages of cash flow?
Proceeds on sale (inflow)
- tax paid on gain (GxT) (outflow)
+ tax saved on loss (LxT) (inflow)
Step Two for the stages of cash flow: Operations
Pre tax cash invlow x (1-T) (inflow)
+ Depreciation x T (inflow)
Step Three for the stages of cash flow: Disposal of the project
One time terminal year inflow The direct effect for the cash inflow created on the sale - direct expense \+ tax savings \+ decr. working captial \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ Terminal year net inflow
What is the shortcut to compute the after tax cash flows?
Multiply pre tax cash flow by (1- Tax rate)
What is a component of total after tax cash flows?
Multiply noncash tax shield items (such as depreciation) by the tax rate
What is the 3 steps of the comprehensive concept- Cash flows for Capital Budgeting?
Step 1: Determine total cash outflow
Step 2: Computing after tax cash inflows after consideration of both the net cash inflows and deprecation tax shield
Step 3: Computing the impact of salvage value in the final year.
How do you calculate the Net Present Value Method?** Memorize**
Step 1: Calculate after tax cash flows = annual net cash flow x (1- Tax rate)
Step 2: Add depreciation benefit = Deprecation x tax rate)
Step 3: Multiply results by appropriate present value of an annuity
Step 4: Subtract initial cash outflow
Result: Net present Value
How do you estimate the cash flows?
1: Initial outflow
2. Annual inflow
3. one time TYCF
How do you interpret the NPV method?
gain= positive results= sum of PVFCF> initial outflow loss= negative results= initial outflow > PVFCF
Why is the NPV method of capital investment valuations considered to be superior to the Internal Rater of Return method?
Because it is flexible enough to consistently handle either uneven cash flows or inconsistent rates of return for each year of the project
How do you calculate the profitability index?
present value of the net initial investment
PI > 1 means + NPV
PVFCF> Cost
What is the objective of the Internal Rate of Return? (IRR)
it focuses the decision maker on the discount rate at which the present value of the cash inflow equals the present value of the cash outflows.
LESS reliable than the NPV method
How do you interpret IRR for investment decisions?
Accept when IRR> Hurdle Rate
Reject when IRR < Hurdle Rate
What is the hurdle rate of return?
The desired (or minimum) rate of return that is set to evaluate investments or projects. The rate can be adjusted to reflect risk or to compensate for expected inflation.
What is the payback period method?
It focuses decision makers on both liquidity and risk.
The formula is :
Net initial investment
_____________________
Increase in annual net after tax cash flow
The lower the better.
Advantages and Limitations on payback period method?
Advantages: easy to use and understand, emphasis on liquidity
Disadvantages: time value of money is ignored (unless DCF used), project cash flows occurring after initial investment is recovered are not considered, total project profitability is neglected
What is discounted payback method?
This variation computes the payback period using expected cash flows that are discounted by the projects cost of capital. The measure focuses decision makers on the number of years needed to recover the investment from discounted net cash flows.
Increased leverage amplifies returns but increases
risk
There are two parts to operating Leverage. What are they?
Fixed salary- TC “independent” of sales
“Variable” (commissions)- TC “dependent” on sales
Examples: 1. Sales goes up Fixed cost - no change EBIT goes up 2. Sales goes down Fixed costs- no change EBIT goes down
What is the formula for Degree of operating leverage (DOL)?
% change in Sales
What does the higher degree of operating leverage imply?
that a relatively small changes in sales (increase or decrease) will have a greater effect on profits and shareholder value.
The higher the firms degree of operating leverage….
The greater its profitability (but also the greater the risk)
What is the formula for a firms degree of financial leverage (DFL)?
%change in EBIT
What are the two parts to Financial leverage?
- Fixed = debt = Interest Expense independent of profit
2. Variable= equity= Div. Dependent on profit
The higher degree of financial leverage……
implies that a relatively small change in earnings before interest and taxes will have a greater effect on profits and shareholder value
Examples:
1. EBIT goes up
IE no change
EPS goes up
- EBIT goes down
IE no change
EPS goes down
What is the formula for a firms degree of combined leverage? (DCL)
% Change in Sales
What is operating leverage?
the degree to which a firm uses fixed operating costs, as opposed to variable operating costs
What is financial leverage?
the degree to which a firms use of debt to finance the firm magnifies the effects of a given percentage change in earnings before interest and taxes on the percentage change in its earnings per share.
What is combined total leverage?
the use of fixed operating costs and fixed financing cost to magnify returns to the firms owners.
What are operating leverage decisions often the result of?
industry characteristics rather then management decisions
What are financial leverage decisions often the result of?
foundational to capital structure and are influenced by the amount of operational leverage (risk) implied by the industry.
What is weighted average cost of capital? (WACC)
It serves as a major link between the long tern investment decisions associated with a corporations capital structure and the wealth of a corporations owners
What is the formula for WACC?
Cost of equity multiplied by the percentage equity in capital structure + weighted average cost of debt multiplied by the percentage debt in capital structure. see example on page B3-24
Always select ratio where WACC is lowest
How do you calculate the weighted average interest rate (or the YTM- market rate)?
Debt cash available
How do you calculate the after tax cash flow
YTM (or weighted average interest rate) x (1-Tax rate)
How do you determine the cost of long term debt?
General rule: cheapest: interest cost tax deductible or assume least risk.
What is the formula for calculating the after tax cost of debt?
Pretax cost of debt x (1-Tax rate)
The higher the tax rate, the more incentive exists to use….
debt financing