finals part na nasa dulo Flashcards
Use a variety of mathematical models that rely on historical data and/or causal variables to forecast demand
Quantitative Forecasts
Analysing a time series means breaking down past data into components and then projecting them forward.
Decomposition of a Time Series Forecast
assumes that the future is a function of the past. Thus, historical data are used to predict the future using sequences with equal periods.
Time series forecasting
the gradual upward or downward movement of the data over time.
Trend
data pattern that repeats itself after a period of days, weeks, months or quarters.
Seasonality
a pattern of data that occurs every several years; usually associated with the business cycle and is very important in short-term business analysis and planning
Cycle
blips” in the data by chance and unusual situations
Random variations
such as linear regression, incorporate the variables or factors that might influence the quantity being forecasted
Associative or causal models
assumes that demand in the next period will be equal to the demand in the most recent period
Naïve model
widely used where repeated forecasts require the application of methods like sum-of-the-digits and trend adjustment methods
Weighted moving average
uses the weighted moving average method where more weight is given to the recent data;
Exponential smoothing
supported by the belief that the future is more dependent on the recent past than the distant past;
Exponential smoothing
useful on random historical with no seasonal fluctuations
Exponential smoothing
fits a trend line to a series of historical data points and then projects into the future for medium-to-long range forecasts
Trend projections
shows the relationship between two variables: the dependent and independent;
Regression analysis
same mathematical model employed in the least squares method of trend projection can be used
Regression analysis
expresses the degree or strengths of the linear relationship; usually identified as r, and can be any number between +1 and -1
CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS FOR REGRESSION LINES
is looking ahead to see what actions should be taken to realize particular goals
planning
is looking backward determining what actually happened and comparing it with the previously planned outcomes
control
are financial plans for the future and are a key component of planning
budget
it identifies objective and the actions needed to achieve them
budget
plots a direction for an organizations future activities and operations
strategic plan