Final Test Flashcards
Survivorship Bias
Definition: The cases that are most visible might not be the most important. Is the logical error of concentrating on entities that passed a selection process while overlooking those that did not.
Cognitive shortcut that occurs when a successful subgroup is mistaken as the entire group, due to the invisibility of the failure.
The bias’ name comes from the error an individual makes when a data set only considers the “surviving” observations, excluding points that didn’t survive.
Example:
the plane for WW2 and the model. In the model you could see that the most attacked spaces where in th emiddle of the plane and the analysists focused on that when they ignored the biggest lesson that the model could give to them. The places where they did not have anymoer data which means focusing attention on the planes that did not come back.
The Swiss Cheese Model
Definition: Ilustrate how analyses of major accidents and catastrophic systems failures tend to reveal multiple smaller failures leading up to the actual hazard. Each slice of cheeses representes a safety barrier or protection. It likens human systems to multiple slices of Swiss cheese, which has randomly placed and sized holes in each slice, stacked side by side, in which the risk of a threat becoming a reality is mitigated by the differing layers and types of defenses which are “layered” behind each other.
example-
Levels of Analysis
Part of the analyst’s toolbox
A model that allows people to view the incident from a different perspective; it captures the essence. Present a new perspective to help us see a problem and identify the problem associated with the situation.
the levels
micro individual
mezzo state
macro system
Micro Level
The individual level of analysis locates the cause of events in individual leaders or the immediate circle of decision makers within a particular country. It focuses on human actors on the world stage identifying the characteristics of human decision making.
Mezzo Level
The systemic level of analysis explains outcomes from a system wide level that includes all states. It seeks explanations for international phenomena by considering the nature or structure of the international political system at the period under study.[9] It takes into account both the position of states in the international system and their interrelationships
Macro Level
Global level factors are much like Systemic level factors, however the core difference is that global factors are not necessarily created by states, whereas systemic factors are. Global factors can be the outcome of individuals, interest groups, states, nonstate actors or even natural conditions – however they cannot be traced to the actions of any one state or even group of states.
Decision Cube
The Decision Cube Model is a conceptual framework in political science that analyzes policy decisions across three dimensions: political feasibility, administrative capacity, and public acceptance. This model envisions a cube, with each dimension representing a critical aspect of decision-making. Political feasibility assesses the political viability of a policy, administrative capacity evaluates the government’s ability to implement it, and public acceptance gauges societal receptivity. By examining decisions within this three-dimensional space, the Decision Cube Model offers a nuanced understanding of the challenges and considerations influencing political choices, providing a valuable tool for analysis.
Rational Model
Picking the option that gives the most for the lowest cost.
his model assumes that political actors, be they policymakers or government officials, act in a rational manner by identifying a problem, considering all possible alternatives, evaluating each alternative based on clear criteria, and selecting the option that maximizes their goals or objectives. The Rational Model suggests that decision-makers possess complete information, prioritize their preferences, and make choices that are in their best interest. While this model provides a structured approach to decision analysis, critics argue that it oversimplifies the complexities of real-world political decision-making.
Graham Allison’s model for decision making.
This is a process of decision making done by
collecting all the data
identifying the options
Ranking these options
Picking the option that gives most for the lowest cost
The following have to be ensured ;
decision maker is rational & unitary
example in the cuban missile crisis: using this lens leads to the option of naval blockade. JFK being ht eone making the decision.
Critique: Not always the rational choice is ethical.
Bureaucratic Model
Beurucrats make decisions, and they represent the preferences/agenda of their respective bureaucracies.
The state, therefore, becomes a collection of bureaucracies competing for power.
In the end, the decision made then represents the balance of the bureaucratic powers on the table.
Critique: the assumption that where you sit is where you stand as it leads to inflexibility.
example- in the Cuban missile crisis, many of the men in the president’s committee each represented the branch of goverment meant they worked for, and it was implied that they. General Curtis Laway form the air force and ambassdor at that time.
Organizational Model
Makes the assumption that actions are made and carried out by organizations.
Critique: Organizations are not fully rational
The Organizational Process Model posits that decisions are influenced by the standard operating procedures, routines, and organizational culture within governmental agencies. It emphasizes the role of bureaucratic organizations in shaping policy outcomes, portraying decision-makers as influenced by institutional constraints, routines, and the organizational environment, providing a comprehensive framework to understand the complexities of governmental decision-making processes.
example of nagasaki-
Standard Operating Procedures
Routine set of processes/actions routinely set before the event happens, however it cannot cover all eventualities.
Critique: They are useful heuristics, but not often optimal.
Organizational structure & informational flows.
OP’s make institutions and organizations ‘sticky’ implying the SOP’s go beyond their expiry date and remain constant in an organization despite the external environment changing, hence the term path dependency.
Example: Five days at Memorial in the first episode where all the staff of the hospital try to find an SOP to follow in the case of the flood or being stuck in the hospital. However, there is no SOP and this cases the workers to blank as they don’t know how to procede.
Path Dependecy
SOPs are a major component of path dependency. Path dependency involves selecting what was chosen years ago which may not be rational or logical in the time being.
The tendency of institutions or technologies to become committed to develop in certain ways as a result of their structural properties or their beliefs and values.
Critique: based on the straightforward assumption that “history matters.”
Ex-The creation of the CIA as it was an organization built for the begigining of the cold war and when it ended, the organization continued. The organization failed on 9/11 becuase it wasn’t preprared for that.
The Nagasaki bombing becuase of bad weather they decided to throw it there.
Garbage Can Model of Decision Model
Cohen, Olsen, March
The garbage can model of decision-making illustrates how problems and solutions are placed in the same location and matched during choice opportunities when decisions need to be made. The choice opportunity represents a garbage can while problems and solutions are placed inside like trash.
Bounded rationality : match the problem with the most fitting SOP
Critique: if we problematize the connection between problems & solutions, we lose rationality.
Example: When the city of Toronto distributed garbage cans to prevent the entry of raccoons. The decision and solution were paired randomly or constructed according to the need.
The Nagasaki bombing because the SOP was to follow the plan.
ex- nagasaki bombing . specifically choosing the city.
March of Folly
Coined by Barbara Tuchman “Folly is the child of Power”
A book written to explain why smart people make stupid decisions.
Competition for power+ Self interest= folly
The pursuit by government of policies contrary to their own interests, despite the availability of feasible alternatives
Three conditions need to be present for it to be a March of Folly
The chosen policy is counter productive (going to fail) and is understood as such at the time
Alternative policy choices are available
The decision is made by a group and over more than one political life span
Ex- The Vietnam War (At war with the truth) constant data shown for many different president and they decided to continue with the war. Million of American lives were lost.
Helen of Troy and the Cassandra story.
Wooden Headnesses
“assessing a situation in terms of preconceived fixed notions while ignoring or rejecting any contrary signs”
On Philip II of Spain, the surpass of the wooden-head of all sovereigns : “no experience of the failure of his policy could shake his belief in its essential excellence”
Cassandra
Archytpe is used in Barbara Tuchman’s book because it proves in several situations, someone has the insight into things turning out for the worst but is ignored.
Comes from the tale of Helen of Troy. The most beautiful owmen in troy who left her husband and he launched a thousand ships.
Example- The Pentagon Papers in 1971 Daniel Ellsberg but the war continued until 1975. At war with the truth, the government was making up data to report advancements in Vietnam.
That little crappy ship article where it details the organizational culture where they spent billions of dollars on a ship that was cleared by Ray Mabus former navy secretary. There were multiple officers that raied their concerns about the situation and how underlying factors could affect how
Cognitive Models
These models are interesting for us because they justify why actors and their actions deviate from rationality.
Level of Analysis:
1. Clinical Psychology
2. Cognitive Psychology
3. Social Psychology
They are an umbrella for many psychological theorists and models.
Internal validity vs. External Validity
Clinical Psychology
The Goldwater rule- When Goldwater wanted to run for president, 1189 psychiatrists sad that Gold water is psychologically unfit to be president.
Critique- Clinical psychology does not go well with politics.
Cognitive Psychology
One of the levels for analysis borrowed from psychology. It states that cognitive processes are used to make decisions , they have a recurring bias.
“We all work with the same hardware”
Prospect Theory
Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman won the Nobel prize. The theory states that people are less likely to take risks when there is a choice between certaintiyty. We feel more the pain of roses than we enjoy the plesur of gains.
We tend to be more risk-averse in the domain of gains and more risk-acceptant in the domain of losses.
Ex- Operation Eagle Claw
The Iran Hostage Crisis in 1979 where the American embassy was taken by a group.
Cognitive Closure
Once someone has made up their mind, it is impossible to deviate from that conclusion.
Uncertainty drives people to reach a closure, but once that closure is established. Then, nothing can chaneg their minds.
Critique: It relies on the judgement and vlaues of a person as that influence their closure which is commonly erroneous.deviation from rationality.
Ex- Eli Ziera and his role in the 1973 Yom Kippur attacks. He was the head of military intelligence. Repeated warnings from key intelligence sources and the movement of forces were ignored. He was arrogant and once he decided no war is imminent he ignored all signs and convinced the poltical leaders that he was correct.
repeated in the october 7th attacks too.
Groupthink
Part of the level of analysis from cognitive models.
Phenomenon where people tend to confirm with group decisions to avoid feeling outcast.
Critique: instead of picking the best optoin, the group picks the option that maximizes consensus.
Example- The Milgram Experiment on Obedience to Authority Figures (Socia Psychology).
2/3 of the people continue and obey what their supervisors have to say regardless of what they think.
Groupthink is a psychological phenomenon where a cohesive group prioritizes consensus and harmony over critical thinking and objective decision-making. In pursuit of unanimity, group members may suppress dissenting opinions, leading to flawed or irrational outcomes. Symptoms include self-censorship, collective rationalization, and an illusion of invulnerability. Coined by psychologist Irving Janis, groupthink is particularly prevalent in tightly-knit, homogeneous groups, such as governmental or organizational committees. Recognizing and mitigating groupthink is crucial for fostering a more robust decision-making process that encourages diverse perspectives and reduces the risk of costly and avoidable mistakes within political, social, or business contexts.
Fundamental Attribuition Error
Attribution is the way that we explain the behaviour of others.
The fundamental attribution error is a cognitive bias where individuals tend to attribute others’ behaviors to internal factors (traits or disposition) rather than considering external factors (situational influences). This tendency to overemphasize personal characteristics and underestimate the impact of circumstances can lead to inaccurate judgments and misunderstandings. For example, if someone fails a task, observers may erroneously assume it reflects their inherent abilities rather than considering external factors such as limited resources or challenging conditions. This error in attribution can contribute to stereotyping and hasty judgments, impeding a more accurate understanding of the complexities influencing human behavior in various situations.
Organizational Culture
Each organization cerates a unique culture. To decipher the culture, we need close observation of the particular rituals of the organization. The role of the analyst is ti deduce the deeper layers of meaning based on these outcomes.
Levels of organizational culture
1. artifacts and creations (visible but not decipherable)
2. values (greater level of awareness)
3. Basic Assumptions (taken for granted invisible and pre-conscious)
This model was creatd by Edgar Schein in his book. It comes from sociology and business schools.
The four types are:
Clan
Adhocracy
Hierarchy
Market
